As per reputed Italian journalist- Fabrizio Romano of Sky Sports Italia and The Guardian, Mohamed Bouhafzi of the French publication- RMC and various other reliable English and Portuguese sports journalists have reported that FC Porto’s Alex Telles has been offered to Manchester United with both club still unable to find an agreement on a transfer fee despite Manchester United and the Brazilian Leftback, who is now in his last year of contract at the reigning Portuguese First Division Champions, already finding an agreement on Personal Terms. Telles was the main source of creativity for his team which brought the league title at Estadio Do Dragao with 11 goals and further 8 assists from Left back position in 31 games across the league campaign. Even though the 27 year old Brazilian international may have amassed a great number of goals and assists from left back position, these Goals+Assists numbers alone are not a good factor to judge a player, especially a full-back. Hence a glance at the underlying numbers will debunk if he really is *THAT* good to make instant impact at the ‘Theatre of Dreams’ or not.
Firstly, we will be looking at the percentile numbers of Alex Telles’ numbers for FC Porto in 2019-2020 season. The source of all the following data is StatsBomb. He has decent percentile rank on some metrics, but also has poor-to-very poor percentile rank on other metrics, and those metrics actually are the ones involving his involvement in the attacking phase of the game despite getting a great G+A count (most of which have been from set pieces). For an “attacking fullback”, The Brazilian’s deep progression (Deep progression in terms of football data analytics means frequency of ‘runs’ in the final third) rank is 48th of percentile. His successful passing% is 73 which also lies in 38th of percentile. His ability to apply “pressures” (means frequency of situations which bring about change in possession) is just 8th percentile of the available data for all Fullbacks in the Portuguese first division. One of the most important metric used in football data analytics to check the creative aspect of a player (from open play) is xGBuildup, which is a chain of events accounting for the player’s involvement in the ‘goal creating actions’. In terms of xGBuildup, Telles has a percentile rank of 74, with his xGBuildup/90 min score of 0.43.
Now, a comparison will be made with another fullback from Portuguese First Division to check for the team and league quality and setup. The player under scanner is Benfica’s Alex Grimaldo. The 24-year old former Spanish U-21 star and graduate of famed “La Masia” himself is a star in the making. The Spainard has better percentile rank on each of the metrics used above, with a staggering 90th percentile for xGBuildup, depicting that the player has a great ability to create from open play if used well. Even in defensive phase, Alex Grimaldo is averaging better numbers of successful tackles and interceptions per 90 minutes as compared to Alex Telles. Alex Telles is just avraging better numbers of Aerial Duels won per 90 minutes in comparison to his Benfica counterpart.
Now to understand the underlying numbers of Alex Telles in even better manner, we will now compare him with current first choice LB of Manchester United, Luke Shaw. For this, data has been taken from Squawka. Despite being criticised for very limited involvement in the ‘build-up’ phase of the attacking game at Manchester United, Luke Shaw’s underlying numbers are still decent despite the criticism, but not good enough in comparsion to other top tier fullbacks playing in the elite teams across Europe. Between Telles and Shaw, Shaw is better on the ball with better number in terms of passing along with better numbers of take-ons attempted & completed, where Brazilian seriously lacks despite having a greater number of G+A numbers for a few seasons now.
In order to conclude the question that Telles is a good fit or not, various other factors will also be involved which will further decide whether the Brazilian will be a “Right Fit” or not (including the off the pitch factors- ability to adapt to new surroundings, right cultural fit etc.) ?
Ideal scenario: Player in last year of contract, a relatively cheaper price for a senior player- between 10-20 million, a potential ‘team leader’, Manager’s ability to exploit set pieces as plan B:- YES
Realistic Scenario: Poor underlying numbers and inability to provide instant ‘quality’ upgrade on fullback position, the one which is becoming an important part of manager’s tactics (i.e. Plan-A):- NO
Conclusion: Alex Telles can be a good ‘rotation’ option for the club at the Left Back position, which can push Brandon Williams back to Right Back position and provide a good balance between full back pairs (Shaw-Williams as one pair- with Shaw being Defensive Fullback~Williams being Attacking one and Telles-Aaron Wan Bissaka being other pair- Telles being an Attacking Fullback~Aaron Wan-Bissaka being a Defensive one). Telles is a system specific player only, if used well- he can turn out to be good else he will be massively under-utilized and the Red Devils will again need to spend quality bucks on a quality option in near future.
There is one name which is always on the tongues of the Manchester United fanbase – “Jadon Sancho”. The charismatic winger has been one of the most consistent players in the German Bundesliga ever since he made his senior team debut in front of the famed “Yellow Wall” of Borussia Dortmund. He may be just 20 years of age but he is already at the top of his game at such a tender age, creating havoc from the right wing under Lucien Favre, the manager who is instrumental in giving him a run of games at his new position. Sancho has made the position his own and there is no looking back for the London-born Jadon who started his football journey at now-relegated Watford, and then jumping ship to Manchester City before fate brought him across the English Channel right into the heart of Ruhr Valley in Germany.
A full time England International, the 20-year-old adaptive hardworking winger is dedicated to the project. Dubbed a “generational talent” second only to wonderkid Kylian Mbappe, Sancho ticks all the boxes for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s cultural rebuild at Manchester United and there is a reason why the red devils are ready to spend a huge sum of money even in a post-Covid market which has derailed the financial stability of even the elite clubs. But the past few days have resulted in a widely-reported ‘impasse’ over the transfer business between the two clubs with a good amount of difference in what the English club is offering and what amount the German club ideally wants for their gem – as reported by famous transfer expert, Fabrizio Romano, who plies his trade for Sky Italia and The Guardian.
With Manchester United passing the stage 1 of their cultural rebuild with flying colours, now comes the stage 2- to bring in quality and remove the deadwood in order to make space for future additions- which can be brought from academy or any other quality signing according to the need and demand of the manager. But with serious question over Jadon Sancho deal looming over and an already shortened transfer market coupled with a post Covid scenario bringing more instability when it comes to financial aspects of running a football club, club must bring to use their state of the art Data Analytics team and scouting network to look for alternatives if they plan to actually cut the gap between their arch rivals: Manchester City and Liverpool FC who actually have been ruling the domestic scene for quite a while with Liverpool even finding success on Continental Stage.
In this article we will cover 5 alternatives for Jadon Sancho, giving you a step-by-step detailed analysis using data to explain how these exciting alternatives can actually replicate the output Jadon can deliver.
Why are United chasing Jadon Sancho?
But before we actually come to the alternatives, an intricate detail on The Man, The Myth, The Legend (soon I hope) is needed. With the sudden emergence of Mason Greenwood, a burst in the output of both Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial – all thanks to Ole releasing the shackles which were present under previous managers – and summer signing Daniel James’ impressive first half of the season, Manchester United look like a deadly attacking force – but in phases. The left wing has been the main source of creativity for Manchester United with 41.45% of assists in the Premier League coming from that side. Although the red devils have a relatively good output from the right flank (a position lacking in quality since the Sir Alex era) with 34.77% of assists coming from that side (16 assists), most of these have been courtesy Daniel James first half season burst in what was his second season at senior level and first in the Premier League, that too at a club of Manchester United’s prestige. The lack of genuine quality and injuries to players capable of playing in the same position saw Daniel James being over-utilized and his performances fizzling out over the course of the season. Doubts over his productivity in the final third also remain with many sub-par games from the Welshman like the Manchester Derby at Old Trafford.
(chance creation outlets- Credits to Laurie Whitwell of The Athletic)
This is where Jadon Sancho comes in, bringing in much needed quality and giving an “unpredictability” to Solskjaer’s team in the attacking department which may just prove to be the missing link in Manchester United’s long-lost attacking identity over the years. Jadon not only lights up the stadium with his unpredictability and dexterity but also puts up pretty good numbers in the defensive aspect of his game, recording an average of 2 interceptions and 3.4 recoveries per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga as compared to Marcus Rashford’s 1.8 interceptions and 2.1 recoveries per 90 minutes. He will be an asset to any team which has marauding fullbacks and promises to improve creativity in the final third. Sancho is an excellent ball-carrier and capable of opening up chances through his passing with 7.7 dribbles completed per 90 minutes at a 48.6% success rate averaging 3.6 “progressive runs” (10 metre dashes in the opposition half).
(Jadon Sancho’s Heatmap in Bundesliga- from Wyscout)
(Marcus Rashford’s heatmap in Premier League- from Wyscout)
(Jadon Sancho’s successful take-ons in Champions League)
Now we will look at our 5 alternate choices who can replicate such behemoth numbers and bring similar quality to Manchester United and help them in their quest to reach back on the “Perch”
1. Federico Chiesa (ACF Fiorentina)
(Photo by Giuseppe Maffia/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Son of famed Italian footballer Enrico Chiesa, a cult icon at Stadio Artemio Franchi who enjoyed good spells with Parma and Sampdoria, Federico Chiesa may just be on the verge of replicating his father on the pitch and maybe even do better than him over the course of his career. As compared to his father who played as a striker, Federico plies his trade at right wing and is also capable of playing on the left wing, where he has played for the Azzuri at youth and senior level. He can also pull off the ‘advanced forward’ role if needed. Like Jadon Sancho, Federico Chiesa also brings a good amount of unpredictability and flair which the Norwegian manager craves for in his forward line. Questions have been raised over Chiesa’s productivity in the final third, but most of it has been due to the volatile environment around the “La Viola”, with many managerial changes over a short period. This has curtailed the Italian’s growth to an extent but the potential is still there to be seen.
Federico Chiesa averages a NPxG+xA (non penalty expected goal and assist) per 90 minutes of 0.52 despite various role changes. The winger averages a 3.58 SCA (Shot Creating Actions) per 90 minutes along with a 0.48 GCA (Goal Creating Action) per 90. When it comes to possession, the 22-year old is on the receiving end of passes for 72.9% of the number of passes attempted by the team on an average over 90 minutes, meaning majority of the game at Fiorentina runs through him. This is also supported by the fact that the xG (expected goals) remains at 44 when he is on the pitch but drops to 35.1 when he isn’t playing, bringing a huge positive of +8.9. This positive change in xG per 90 accounts to 0.30 . With Fiorentina dropping hints in the past that they can part ways with their ‘wonderkid’ for a sum above €40 million mark, he may prove to be a good alternative to Jadon Sancho. Some coaching and tactical consistency can further improve Chiesa’s underlying numbers and unleash his full potential.
Positions: RW/LW/CF
Price: €40-50M
Tactical fitment: 10/10
Cultural fitment: 8/10
Devil’s DNA priority score: 9/10
2. Milot Rashica (SV Werder Bremen)
(Photo by Alex Grimm/Bongarts/Getty Images)
The Kosovo International has been a beacon of light in these dark and gloomy days at the Northern Germany club, saving them from near relegation for 2 seasons in a row now. Starting his career at Vitesse Arnhem and then jumping ship to the greener pastures of the Bundesliga, Raschica’s direct gameplay, burst of pace coupled with a good eye for a pass and composure in front of goal makes him an asset for any team which relies on fluidic transitions during counter attacks – a certain element observed at Manchester United under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. His 14 G+A contribution last season was equivalent to 45% of the total goals scored by Werder Bremen over the course of the season, which saw them secure their stay in the top division for one more season via a relegation play-off victory against 2. Bundesliga side FC Heidenheim. His contribution alone resulted in Bremen winning more than 50% of their total points tally. It is evident that he can be the clutch player United badly need in the final third. In addition to his clutch gameplay, he brings a lot of energy on the flank bringin explosiveness in the final third and his work done off the ball is impressive too. He averages 16.28 ‘pressure actions’ (which brings about a change in possession) per 90 minutes at a success rate of 31%, with most of these ‘pressure actions’ being applied in the middle of the park. This indicates that he is more efficient in pressing the second or third man – a good asset for any team which wants to execute intense counter-pressing in the middle of the park and release the ball as soon as possible to ball progressing attackers to initiate fluid counter attacks. With a release clause of € 38 million in his current contract, the energy and clutch mentality the 24-year old brings in a team along with his unpredictability in the final third can be an asset for Manchester United in the long term. There is a good chance his numbers will improve with better players around him. Ole’s system can let his potential unravel since he is at a stage in his career where a switch to a bigger team can make his career. Having played most of the current season on the left wing and striker positions, there might be a slight doubt over his ability to play right wing all the time but given his talent and flexibility, we don’t think that should stop him from becoming the Red devils’ right winger for the next few years.
Positions: RW/LW/CF
Price: €38M
Tactical fitment: 7/10
Cultural fitment: 9/10
Devil’s DNA priority score: 8/10
3. Riccardo Orsolini (Bologna)
(Photo by Jonathan Moscrop/Getty Images)
This may come as a shock to some but Riccardo Orsolini has been fulfilling his potential ever since he has joined the Northern Italian side, Bologna FC, making his switch a permanent one last season with the Italian side shelling a club record figure of € 14.5 million, continuing the cultural reboot at the club, overseen by Sinisa Mihajlovic, by giving preference to younger players making them one of the youngest squads in Serie A. He falls under the category of a modern day “inside forward”- a left footed forward playing on the right flank looking for opportunities to cut in while giving space to the right back to use the width and make overlaps into good crossing areas – while Orsolini looks to progress the ball more into central areas, looking for either a pass or ‘go for glory.’ The latter usually implies an aesthetic curling goal straight into the top corner – a tool Orsolini favours given his athletic and nimble body. He ranks 5th for players dribbled past in the league and 8th in number of fouls drawn. The 23-year old averages an xG+xA of 0.5 per 90 minutes and his non penalty figure of xG+xA per 90 also stands at 0.5, meaning that he is a massive threat from open play. Orsolini averages a good sum of progressive runs into the final third per 90 minutes, standing at a figure of 150 yards. He has a SGA/90 mins of 3.66 and a GCA/90 of 0.40. The talisman of his team, he ends up at the receiving end of a whopping 82% of the passes during the match, clearly implying he is the fulcrum to Bologna’s attack. If a player can deliver such impressive performances for an underperforming team, imagine the increase in output if he makes a switch to a team which suits his playing style needs and improves the quality of his game too – a win-win situation for all parties if Manchester United are taking notes. Bologna’s sporting director Walter Sabatini claimed this season that Orsolini would cost nothing less than €70M, but with his contract ending in 2022 and Bologna underperforming as a sporting project, he may not cost that much in the current post-covid market.
Positions: RW
Price: €40-60M
Tactical fitment: 8/10
Cultural fitment: 7/10
Devil’s DNA priority score: 8/10
4. Calvin Stengs (AZ Alkmaar)
(Photo by Ed van de Pol/Soccrates/Getty Images)
A product of the famed AZ Alkmaar academy, Calvin Stengs has made his breakthrough at first team level this season with the young attacking trio of Oussama Idrissi, Myron Boadu and Stengs winning laurels in their native Netherlands and also making a name at the continental stage, going from the qualifying rounds to delivering impressive performances in the Group Stages of Europa League – with Stengs being the star performer in their 0-0 draw against Manchester United, described as being a ‘thorn in the bush’ on the right flank. The 21-year old averages a non penalty xG+xA of 0.5 meaning he is a good threat from open play which is pretty evident from the ‘offensive actions’ which has won his team an average of 2.23 points/match (since Eredivisie was cancelled due to Covid-19 pandemic so the average has taken for 25 matches – the amount of matches AZ Alkmaar had played till 12th March). Technically sound, nimble, athletic, good both on and off the ball and a good eye for a pass- Calvin Stengs terrorized the defences in Eredivisie which kept the young AZ Alkmaar side; coached by a charismatic Arne Slot, in contention of a historic league title before KVNB declared the league null and void due to Covid-19 pandemic. With a good track record of Dutch players in both England and Manchester United, this Flying Dutchman can again dock on the shores of England and do justice to his talent for a relatively cheaper price.
Positions: RW/CAM
Price: €30-40M
Tactical fitment: 7/10
Cultural fitment: 7/10
Devil’s DNA priority score: 7/10
5. Viktor Tsygankov (Dynamo Kyiv)
(Photo by Srdjan Stevanovic/Getty Images)
The 22-year old is widely regarded as one of the best talents to come out of Ukraine. The athletic player is equally adept as an ‘advanced forward’ as well as an ‘inside forward’ and even capable of playing the role of an ‘inverted winger’, cutting in from right wing – very similar to his fellow National team Mate, Andriy Yaormalenko. Despite being just 22 years of age, he has accumulated a good experience at the first team level at Dynamo Kyiv, making his debut for the first team as a 17-year-old back in the 2016-17 season. Now a main player at Dynamo, his impressive tally of 14 goals and 5 assists in 27 league matches has helped Dynamo to the runners-up position in Ukranian League, losing to eventual champions and Europa League semi finalists, Shakhtar Donetsk. But Tsygankov had an even better outing on the continental stage, registering 2 goals and 3 assists in 6 matches. His underlying numbers are what set him apart from his team mates as the X-factor of Dynamo Kyiv. A SCA of 31 and GCA of 4 may look a bit less given the small sample size but Viktor did show glimpses of his immense talent against quality sides at European Stage and he has already gained a lot of first team experience at first team level, now is the time for him to move forward and maybe make a big jump in his career which can be a career defining moment for him.
Positions: RW
Price: €25-50M
Tactical fitment: 8/10
Cultural fitment: 6/10
Devil’s DNA priority score: 7/10
Honourable Mentions: Ismailla Sarr (Watford) Ralphina (Stade Rennais) Marcel Sabizter (RB Leipzig) Leon Bailey (Bayer Leverkusen) Samuel Chukwueze (Villarreal)
(All the data has been taken from FBREF and Statsbomb. The heatmaps are courtesy Wyscout)
Czech Republic. The moment you hear these 2 words, you get the images of Prague and its clamouring medieval era streets and of course Pavel Nedved, Karel Poborsky, Vladimir Smicer, Petr Cech, Tomas Rosicky, Milan Baros and who can forget the man, the myth, the legend: Antonin Panenka.
Once the mighty yet underdog nation of Czechoslovakia boasted some of the most technically astute players ever known to man. I will try to cover up how this small nation went against the odds and shocked the footballing giants, suffered political turmoil yet delivered at grandest stages of all.
Czechoslovakia as a footballing nation reached the finals of 2nd ever FIFA World Cup, losing to the host and eventual winners- Italy. They then again reached the world cup final in 1962, again suffering ignominy of losing at the grandest stage of all; the winner- Pele’s Brazil. But this didn’t stop them from progressing as a footballing nation. A widespread change at grassroot level and one of the first country to involve the use of Sports Science in the game, the country started churning out very good prospects which made the core of the National team for next decade. Spearheaded by the charismatic Antonin Panenka, Czechoslovakia’s team also relied on the rough principles of ‘Total Football’ which was used and mastered by the Dutch in this era, maximizing the use of their technically astute players. The highlight of this era will be the penalty which won the fringe nation their first ever International Trophy- The EUROS.
The country remained under a Communist rule after the end of World War II. The Communist Party integrated a centralized Sports structure in the country with deep links to Schools, Universities and sporting bodies thus inculcating a strong team ethic, which was evident in their National Team. With the advancement of technology, the government invested a good amount of money in upgrading the facilities at Grassroot level and promoting the use of Sports Science in the game.
A potential golden generation was on the rise in the 1980s with clubs like Sparta Prague, Slavia Prague, Bohemians 1905, FK Viktoria Plzen, FK Jablonec, FK Mlada Boleslav seeing a rise in the talent coming through the youth ranks. But the “Velvet Revolution” and the collapse of political order in 1989 brought an end to the various sporting schemes which helped the game thrive in the country. A funding gap was created due to this with influx of money decreasing over the years, which saw the outflux of talent from the country. By 2005, only 5 members of National Team were plying their trade in the country’s top tier league competition and rest of the members were making a name for themselves abroad.
Playing under the new nation of Czech Republic, the so-called exciting prospects took the world by storm in 1996. With the Bosman ruling and its potential game changing impact, a new market opened up for the Czech players to make a mark at club level and EUROS 1996 became a stage to show their talent to the world. The underdogs defied the odds and reached to the finals of the competition and were moments away from getting hands on the coveted trophy but an Oliver Bierhoff double (including a golden goal winner) shattered the dreams of this tiny new nation, losing the match by the score line of 2-1. But this tournament opened up the gates to European club football for many of it’s international players with the change in ruling of Non-European players allowed in squad in many countries after the Bosman ruling. Pavel Nedved joined The Laziali, spearheading the Czech football revolution for many years and making his mark at Lazio and then at Juventus. Karel Poborsky (and his famous “Poborsky Lob”) joined Manchester United, winning a Premier League medal in his 18-month stay at the club, then moving to Benfica, Lazio and finishing his career in Czech Republic. After losing Poborsky to their arch-rivals Manchester United, Liverpool turned their attention to Patrik Berger, who spent 7 glorious years at the Merseyside club, then moving further south and joining The Pompeys, Portsmouth and then Aston Villa before calling it quit on his career in England, moving back to his native country to see out his last few years of the career.
While the current crop of players made a name for themselves with their performances and winning their dream moves to the Elites, the next batch of youth was brimming on the chance to send shockwaves, in which they succeeded. The U21s of Czech Republic performed very well at U21 Euros, finishing runners up at 2000 edition which was held in Slovakia and winning the competition in 2002, hosted by Switzerland and brought the talent of iconic Petr Cech to the mainstream. Both the editions of competition saw the involvement of many players, who then went to have a good career including the likes of Petr Cech, Milan Baros, Zdenek Grygera, Marek Jankulovski, Jaroslav Drobny, David Rozehnal, Tomas Hubschman, Radoslav Kovac. (Tomas Rosicky was supposed to take part in 2000 edition but he had become a mainstay in senior team by the time qualification rounds for the tournament were over)
Carrying this momentum forward, Czech Republic again gave the European powerhouses a tough fight, reaching the semi-finals of 2004 EUROS, setting up a clash with another underdog team in Greece. Milan Baros’ performances almost took them to another European final but an injury time winner again destroyed the dreams of this tiny nation. An appearance at 2006 World Cup was another highlight for the country but by the turn of the decade, the Golden Generation was in its twilight years and the outflux of talent to neighbouring countries of Germany and Austria curtailed the development of many prospects.
But with ex-players getting into administration level jobs in the Czech Republic FA, things are turning around. Karel Poborsky himself is the Technical Director, looking after the development of players representing the country at youth levels and creating a good path for them to take the chance to represent Czech Republic at senior level when they are ready; by trying to emulate the same sporting schemes and atmosphere from which their Golden Generation benefitted.
A country which influenced German and Belgian Football Renaissance is itself going through the same phase and the signs are looking good till now. Exciting prospects like Adam Hlozek, Adam Karabec, Alex Kral, Michal Sadilek, Ondrej Lingr, Ondrej Sasinka, Christian Frydek, Filip Soucek, Dominik Plechaty, Zdenek Hucek, Vojtech Patrak, Matej Polidar have stepped up and made a mark for their hometown teams and for country at Youth Levels too, again attracting the attention of scouts from other parts of Europe.
The process is long but the signs are looking positive and who knows if some of these players finally break their jinx and bring glory for once powerhouse of football.
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