Rasmus Højlund: The Spark

by | Aug 8, 2023

Wout Weghorst – Age 30 – Loan

Cristiano Ronaldo – Age 37 – €17m

Edinson Cavani – Age 34 – Free

Odion Ighalo – Age 31 – Loan


These have been the players signed by Manchester United to lead their attack in the past 4 years. Currently none of them are at the club. The lack of seriousness in plugging a major starting XI gap has finally been addressed this summer. 20 year old Danish wonderkid, Rasmus Hojlund was unveiled at Old Trafford before the pre-season friendly vs Lens to an excited Old Trafford crowd. 

Thanks to the deal costing €75m as a package, the hype and expectations from an excited fanbase who have been yearning for a young high ceiling line-leading CF, are quite high. In this article I break down every aspect of Hojlund’s game and point out his key strengths and the areas he needs to improve on.

Career so far

Born in Copenhagen, he joined their youth system in 2020 at the age of 17. He made his debut for them later that year and went on to feature 27 times over the next season. Sturm Graz picked him up for €1.8m in Jan 2022 and he recorded an impressive 12 goals in 21 appearances for them across 2022. That was enough for Atalanta to shell out €17m in August 2022. 22/23 was his breakout year where he bagged 10 goals and 2 assists in 21.1 90s for the Serie A club which was enough for United to come knocking. He has also started playing regularly for Denmark in the past 2 years racking up 6 goals in 6 games for his country so far.

22/23 Stats
Before we begin, let’s take a look at his stats for 22/23. I will dissect them in detail soon, but here’s a snapshot.

Excellent movement and shooting, great carrying and good passing – is how I’d summarize this chart. This already paints a good picture of the type of striker we want to lead our line. Let’s get into his traits now.

NOTE: For the match examples in this article I’ve stuck to two full games – Atalanta vs Salernitana from Serie A GW37 and Denmark vs Kazakhstan 2023 Euro qualifier. I wanted to highlight all of Rasmus’ pros and cons using two full 90s instead of cherry-picking good moments across a year.

Attacking Movement

Let me say upfront that this is Hojlund’s best trait and the one I think he’s already at par with compared to the best strikers in the world. His consistency, willingness, IQ and variety of movement are all top-class and this is one of the main reasons I’d say his profile is so attractive for a top team. 

Now, let me back these positive statements with some proof.

This is how Atalanta lined up in the end-season league game vs Salernitana and generally how they’ve lined up in Serie A last season. There are some variations where they play a front 2 with an AM behind them but largely speaking they fielded 3 narrow attackers with Hojlund most central among them as a line leader.

Atalanta play a very attacking and transition-based brand of football. The wingbacks provide the width while the back 3 and pivot take care of the build up and progression. The front 3 have a lot of license to roam in the opponent half to pick spaces between the lines, on the wings or half-spaces between defenders. The 2 support strikers are usually narrow like attacking midfielders. Hojlund was usualy the line leader CF, playing on the shoulder of the last opposition defender.

Now let’s look at some movement patterns Hojlund often executes.

This is his bread-and-butter move. Hojlund curves around a defender to attack the channel or half-space between the center-back and the fullback. The support striker responsible for that halfspace usually takes Hojlund’s central spot to prepare for the cutback or offer a box target. Lookman often shared this equation with Hojlund and this is something we could see a lot with Rashford at United. When Hojlund runs the channel, he provides an immediate outlet for the team to pick out, stretches the opposition defence and creates space for his support attackers to occupy.

Let’s look at some match examples.

A bursting Hojlund run into the right channel attracts the defender towards him, which creates space for him to play the channel pass to his teammate who runs there. Notice how Hojlund also attacks the box after his pass, expecting a 1-2 or someone to find him there later. Offers the channel run but immediately wants to attack the box as well – that’s Hojlund.

Notice the sharpness of the run here. The space isn’t big and there is a narrow window to angle his run to avoid being offside and yet beat his man and receive the ball. Hojlund’s movement IQ and awareness is excellent enough to nail that window consistently all game. It’s one reason I’d put him up there with the best movers in the game already. His pass could probably have been better, which is an erratic part of his game, but the support wasn’t great too.

Once again, notice how Hojlund starts peeling away from his marker the moment his teammate is about to receive the ball on the flank. That enables the first-time pass into the right channel. His movements are so quick and sharp, they are designed to attack those short moments when the space is available. United’s players will have to be quick in noticing those moments and playing him early when he has the run on the opposition defender.

An example on the left side. Notice how good Hojlund’s control and carrying is after receiving wide. To end up with a strong shot on goal from that wide position highlights what a good dribbler and shot-creator for himself Hojlund is.

This is a great example of his movement. Notice how he tears away from his CB with the perfect angled run that not only beats the CB, but also lets him receive cleanly behind the RB.

An example from the Denmark game. Notice how he suddenly changes direction and darts towards the channel, inviting even the simplest of chips in the half space to become a great tool of progression. A hold up action and pass to winger later, Denmark are in the final 3rd.

Let’s get into his second movement pattern.

A more direct move where Hojlund stands in front of his CB marker and turns him to run into the space right behind facing the goal. This usually ends up in a shot on goal or final ball or foul won. It is one major avenue for Hojlund’s shots. The acceleration he generates from a standing start to a turn-and-run behind his man is what sets him apart from other strikers who do this.

Let’s look at some scenarios.

Classic move ahead of the CB where he turns around him for a clear path to goal with his left foot in striking position. The CB has no option but to take him down. Hojlund wins a penalty which is dispatched by Boga. In general, he’s drawn 32 fouls and won 2 penalties in his 20 90s for Atalanta this year. It’s tough to handle someone as smart and quick a mover as Hojlund. Bruno could be taking some extra penalties this coming year.

Another example where his turn-and-run leads to a foul drawn in a dangerous area.

An example from the Denmark game where he darts across the CB and uses his pace and physicality to maintain his run and emerge goalside. A random long ball punt becomes a 1-on-1 with the GK thanks to Hojlund’s run. He also has the composure to chip and earn his goal.

Let’s move to another pattern.

This is the one you all must be waiting for. The classic poacher move – Penetrative run between defenders when the ball is in wide areas. Hojlund is excellent at this and keeps making these runs often. Many of his goals are from this movement and often finished with a speedy dart and an extended leg to tap in a pure striker’s goal.

Let’s see some examples from the same games.

The Boga low cross wasn’t able to beat the CB in this case, but look at Hojlund’s acceleration and extension attempt. Would have been a poacher’s goal if not for the interception.

Another example where you can see his patience to wait for the final ball before executing the quick burt-and-stretch in front of goal. 

From the same game. Hojlund is always attacking the ball across the face of the goal. This time the goalkeeper being brave prevented a tap-in.

Here,within 2 seconds, Hojlund attacks the gap between both defenders and finds himself in pole position for a 2-yard finish. A last-ditch interception prevents the shot, but Hojlund will keep making that run all day, which is a reason why he gets goals.

As you can see from the examples, there’s a good reason Hojlund is at 99 percentile for ‘Progresses passes received’ in his Serie A pizza chart. Here’s how his movement compares to attackers in Europe.

In summary, he’s an excellent mover with many various movements to receive dangerous balls in good areas. The output of these moves are usually excellent – either a shot on goal, or foul won or final ball chance or space for another attacker to finish. Movement is Hojlund’s best trait and what makes him so valuable. Especially in the context of playing ahead of progressors like Bruno Fernandes, Luke Shaw, Mason Mount, Lisandro Martinez and Casemiro, who have the passing range to pick him out regularly, It’s a finger-licking aspect of his profile.

Shooting

We’ve seen how he gets into shooting positions. But how does he shoot after getting there?

These are his fbref shooting stats. What is very promising is the combination of ‘shot on target %’, ‘NPxG’ and ‘NPxG/Sh’. Together they indicate a player who gets his shots on target often and racks up high shot quality with each attempt, and this results in him accruing a healthy amount of non-penalty expected goals. It’s a very attractive shooting profile. I personally don’t mind the total shots percentile being a little low. It just indicates he’s not very trigger-happy and prefers to move or carry to get into good positions and attempt high quality shots. It meshes well with our attack since we already have shoot-heavy profiles in Bruno and Rashford. A third attacker who prefers to move or carry closer to goal and enhance chance quality is welcome.

He was 5th when it came to collecting non-penalty xG on a per 90 basis in Serie A last year. Moving with established strikers on this metric as a 20-year-old in his debut league season says a lot.

Let’s look at his shot map.

These are all his open play shots in Serie A in 22/23. What’s most satisfying is the number of shots inside the box. Only 3 shots are outside the box. He does have a slight preference to shoot from the left half-space compared to right. But his major chunk of shots being in the central zone around the penalty area is a clear signal of the kind of striker he is. 7 of his 9 goals have come from shots within the central zone and within the box – the area you want your line leader to score from, whether it’s from clever movement, a strong carry or just being in the right position after a penalty box scrimmage. An example of that last point from the Denmark Kazakhstan game:

I have a final viz to present before rounding up the shooting section.

This is another representation of what I was saying earlier – Hojlund doesn’t need too many shots to score. He roughly scores a goal every 6 shots. The only player who is in the same range and surpasses Hojlund on shots and goals per 90 is – you guessed it – Victor Osimhen. He’s the red dot on the far top-right corner. I know that we all wanted Osimhen at Manchester United, but I’m here to tell you that we’re probably getting the second-best option when it comes to shooting profile.

Carrying and dribbling

Let’s move on to another trait of Hojlund which I consider a big strength. I’m referring to dribbling as the action to try and beat a man or get into a good area and carrying as a generic ball control in any direction regardless of opponent.

These are his carrying stats from fbref. Firstly, his touches geared largely towards the penalty area and then the attacking third are a huge plus. And if you read those in combination with take-ons attempted (i.e. dribbles), we can understand that Hojlund attempts many dribbles in dangerous areas close to goal. These are not random dribbles in deeper or wide areas. They have goal scoring or assisting intent to them and are often in crowded areas where most opposition defenders are parked. This is also why his ‘Miscontrols’, ‘Dispossessed’ and ‘Times tackled’ look bad. Not only is he attempting a lot of take-ons, he’s also attempting them in areas usually swarming with defenders. So the success rates might seem low but the reward element is high, usually resulting in a game-opening move. The low percentiles make sense in that context and aren’t an issue of concern in any way.

Let’s see some match examples.

Another example of his turn-and-run move, but here he has the ball control ability to take down an awkward bouncing ball and push it in a dangerous area, beating both the men putting pressure on him. The result – he’s taken down in the box to earn another penalty.

This example is a good combination of the three traits we have discussed so far – the movement to dart between the CBs in transition, the carrying power to dribble and put distance from them and the intention to get close to goal before shooting with the knowledge that he will score – a microcosm of everything Hojlund is about. 

Hold up and link up play

So far, the 3 traits I discussed are clear strengths of Hojlund, which he’s touching top attacker levels for. But from now, we’re starting to go into the territory of traits he can improve more on. 

I’m referring to hold up play as the act of holding onto the ball until support arrives, often when back-to-goal and while battling a defender. I’m defining link-up play as the ability to see a pass and execute it after receiving or holding the ball.

And with that i need to say this – Hojlund’s hold up is average.

I’ve seen a lot of takes citing his hold-up as excellent, but I think a lot of it is based on an imagination of how his profile combination of physique, technique and speed will ensure that in the near future. It’s probably not a representation of what he’s shown so far.
Let me show you some examples to explain what I mean.



Hojlund tries to use his body to do a leave-and-run move on a high ball and loses possession. He often tries to use his physicality and speed on the break to tackle high balls but the results are pretty inconsistent.

Another example where Hojlund tries to push back on his man instead of going towards the ball and using his chest to control. The defender wins the ball with an outstretched leg.

Here, he’s again focused on using his physique, but judges the ball poorly again and ends up giving it away after a mistimed header.

The issue isn’t limited to aerials alone. Even on the ground, Hojlund often loses the ball with an awkward touch.

A simple pass that he fumbles and ends up losing possession.

Another comparatively straightforward pass to his legs that he’s unable to hold on to. To be fair, this is a tougher ask, but the point is to highlight how his technique when faced back to goal needs more work. He can get more consistent in trapping balls at an angle away from goal at a standing start. 

Next, let’s move to link-up play. Is Hojlund a good passer? Can he find others with good vision and execution?

There isn’t much to read in his passing stats. We can conclude that hes no great creator or progressor on the ball, but all his stats also indicate that he’s above average at most passing metrics and can handle his own easily.


Let’s see some match examples.

One of those instances where Hojlund does control the ball very neatly and releases a player highlighting good vision and technique. He has it in his locker for sure, even if he’s not very consistent in all situations yet.

A smart move where Hojlund recognizes his teammate stuck in a bad spot and offers short support. A cool 1-2 flick is executed smartly. These are the touches and flicks Hojlund is better at compared to aerial ball battles with CBs.

Probably my favorite example in this section. Hojlund controls and holds the ball in time for his teammate to make the run, before executing a brilliant backheel key pass that almost led to a goal.

Pressing and defending

This is another trait which has been blown a little out of proportion. While Hojlund is a very willing defender and showcases bursts of intense pressing from time to time, his consistency and reading of the game when pressing is pretty lacking, while his success of actions is also very hit-and-miss.

His fbref section for defending stats compared to Serie A attackers doesn’t indicate much in terms of defensive actions. While this doesn’t give us any idea of his pressing numbers or reading of the press, it would have looked better if he was actually winning the ball from the front and generating turnovers for this team. It’s safe to say that he’s not great at that.

Let’s look at some match examples.

This is the kind of press you can expect from Hojlund. He can use his speed to bear down on the last CB or GK with single-minded intention. At the very least, he will offer this simple movement in the high press.

In many other games, he’s instructed to not press too much and just cover his marker. This happens a lot for Atalanta who don’t press too high, since they want to encourage the opponent to advance before hitting them in the spaces they leave behind. Hojlund often clings to the central CB to deter passes from wider players or GK to this CB. Another simplistic man-marking job that Hojlund can pull off without fuss.


In summary, we don’t have too much evidence of a great front defender. His defensive output is below average while his pressing, while intense, lacks intelligence. That said, it’s also fair to say that Atalanta’s tactics to not press too high or engage in the counter-press play a big part in these stats. It’s something that can be easily coached and I don’t think there should be an issue if he’s asked to press high and regularly. 

Aerial duels

Another aspect of Hojlund’s game that can be better. We’ve already seen some examples from the hold up section where he struggles a bit to take down the aerial ball.

His stats for aerials read average. His win rate doesn’t seem to be particularly high or low.

But there’s more to this than meets the eye. I’m going to take the help of my good friend Ben Griffis for this next viz.

These are all the passes leading to Rasmus Hojlund aerials in Serie A in 22/23. Within the box, Hojlund has received 7 aerial balls successfully from a total of 10. That’s pretty good for a striker. Many of his aerial duel losses are in the middle of the pitch where he has to contest outballs and clearances from his GK and backline. 

Like this for example.

For aerial duels, I’d be a little less harsh on Hojlund, although I think he will keep getting better as his physicality improves.

Summary.

If I had to summarize all of Hojlund’s traits discussed so far, I’d score them as:

Movement: 9/10
Shooting: 8/10
Carrying: 7/10
Link-up: 6/10
Pressing: 5/10
Aerial: 4/10
Hold-up: 4/10

With 10 being best, and 1 being worst, in the top 5 leagues at that trait.

The good news is that the first 3 traits are harder to find, have a great synergy with what we have in attack and are simply more important for a line leading CF. It’s also easier to expect a lot of the other traits to improve as Hojlund ages. Pressing is very coachable, link-up should get better as he matures and aerial and hold-up might never become a 10 but they can definitely improve to the point of being a non-issue. For a 20 year-old, this is a great set of traits to have.

If I had to predict how Hojlund’s 23/24 could go, I’d say that 15 goals in 30 games would be a great start. He will take time to settle, has a lot to perfect in his game and has just come off 1 Serie A season of 10 goals in 21 90s. Extrapolating the same form to 30 games out of a possible 60 for United in the coming season would be a good Premier League debut season at this age.

(Credits: fbref, Opta Analyst, Ben Griffis, Understat, Manchester United Twitter)

Andre Onana: The Catalyst

by | Jul 27, 2023

Andre Onana: The Catalyst

Rarely has a Manchester United summer transfer window seen the clarity and execution that 2023 summer has so far. The biggest gaps in the squad have been tackled head on and so far, successfully so. One of those issues was the goalkeeper situation. In the end, after season-long speculation, United have done the right thing by releasing David de Gea and buying Andre Onana. 

The move from a goalkeeper who’s best attribute of shot-stopping has been under par for 4 years and other attributes of distribution, claiming and sweeping have regularly been among the worst in the league, to a goalkeeper who’s on-ball technicals and execution rival some of the best playmakers in the game – teases a massive upgrade and play style change for Erik Ten Hag’s Red Devils.

But apart from the vague expectation that Onana is an upgrade, especially on distribution, the understanding of his ability and potential for each goalkeeping trait and how his performances could translate from his previous teams – is still a bit of an unknown

In this piece, I analyze every aspect of Onana’s game and try to explain why he will be the catalyst to a new era at Manchester United.

Career history

Born in Cameroon, Onana joined Barcelona from the Samuel Eto’o academy at the age of 14 in 2010. He was loaned twice due to non-EU limits before finally switching to Ajax in 2015. 39 apps for Jong Ajax later, Onana was made the starting keeper of the Ajax main team for the 16/17 season at the age of 20 by manager Peter Bosz. He had 46 appearances in that season and his first team status continued for 4 seasons after that, most notably under Erik Ten Hag from 2017 to 2022.

In February 2021, Onana was banned from playing for 12 months by UEFA after testing positive for Furosemide, a banned substance. Onana said he took his wife’s medicine by mistake and Ajax joined him in appealing against the decision. The ban was reduced to nine months by the CAS in June. In the summer of 2022, Inter Milan picked up Onana on a pre-agreed free transfer. 22/23 was a confirmation of Onana’s abilities as he completed a successful season which culminated in Onana showing his abilities in the Champions League final in May 2023. A bid of £43.8m plus potential £3.4m in add-ons later, the Cameroonian finds himself united with Ten Hag in the red side of Manchester.

Distribution

I’ll be going through the 4 major aspects of a goalkeeper’s game and highlight how good Onana is at each one of them. I’ll start with the aspect our previous #1 was often criticized for – distribution.

No better way to show the improvement United will be making in distribution, than the pass maps of their previous and current goalkeeper in each respective season-end finals versus the same opposition. Onana attempted more passes with better success & his pass map shows his comfort in short distribution, esp to wide players, which de Gea is poor at. De Gea went long most of the time. Also, note the pass start locations. Half of Onana’s passes are from outside his penalty box, while a few are from outside Inter’s defensive third! 90% of De Gea’s passes are from within his box. 

Being better than de Gea is one thing, but where does Onana stand in Europe?

Among the very best. In open play, not only does he boast high pass volume but he also plays a lot of short passes. This number could only go up as he often went long to Dzeko, Lukaku or Lautaro at Inter, which might not be the case at United. Statistically speaking, Onana is very comfortable handling large pass volumes while executing many short passes as well.

His distribution radar for Inter compared to Serie A goalkeepers in 22/23 confirm much of the same – he’s an excellent passer. The xGBuildUp and positive outcome stats especially stand out and that brings me to our next point. (Credit: Statsbomb)

What really stands out with Onana’s distribution is that he’s not just a good passer, he is a proper playmaking element in build up. His sense of movement to receive, ball manipulation to drag opponents where he wants and then make the best decision is akin to how deep-lying playmaker midfielders dictate the game. Onana puts himself in good positions, baits opponents and then picks out the best pass to advance the game, whether it’s a simple sideways pass to the CB, a longer pass to a fullback or midfielder or an ambitious ball to an attacker.

I’ve picked out a few match examples from Inter’s final 22/23 league game versus Atalanta.

This sequence explains a lot of what makes Onana a great build up goalkeeper. He waits initially after receiving to drag an attacker towards him before passing to the fullback. When the ball comes back to him, notice how he moves to position himself to receive comfortably in space. Another pass to the opposite side opens up space at the center, which Onana quickly picks out and helps his team burst through the space created at the center and reach the halfway line.

A simple example of how Onana waits for the opponent to press before displaying the ability to whip out a pass around the angled run in the space that the striker was trying to block. Onana always finds the empty man even under pressure from forwards.

Another interesting sequence. Onana stands to bait the opponent to press him and pulls multiple attackers on either side to press the defence with some short crisp passes to his center-backs. With the opponent midfielders pressing high and leaving space behind them, Onana has the composure and vision to pick out a direct long pass to Lukaku amidst all the chaos and create a pseudo-transition for his team with the Atalanta goal in sight.

In summary of this section, I haven’t seen distributors as good as Onana in my lifetime and the control and technique  at which he operates borders on playmakers of old like Xabi Alonso and Michael Carrick. Onana runs the build up, baits the opponent and always finds a way for his team to progress.

I’m going to rate all 4 goalkeeping traits on a scale of 1 (worst in Europe’s top 7 leagues) to 10 (best in Europe) in this article. The first trait is blemishless.

Distribution: 10/10

Shot-stopping

Andy Cole on André Onana: “I don’t care if you can do 10 kick-ups, a goalkeeper needs to be able to save the ball.” [MUTV]

We’ve seen some version of this statement often on social media, that aims to deride a goalkeeper who is a great distributor for not having the trait that is seemingly a goalkeeper’s main job – saving goals. For one, the concept of shot prevention needs to be understood. A proactive action from a goalkeeper like a good sweep, a strong claim or enabling good build – can prevent a shot from being taken in the first place. 

As per John Harisson of goalkeeper xG fame, 68 per cent of De Gea’s workload last season was shot stopping, 28 per cent was shot prevention and just four per cent was distribution. A well-rounded keeper can provide more value in preventing shots other than relying on shot-stopping alone. With Onana, the percentages for shot prevention and build up will definitely go up, reducing the burden on shot-stopping.

That said, shot-stopping needs to be good for a team to compete for titles. But is Onana bad at it? Not quite.

One measure of shot-stopping is PSxG-GA. PSxG refers to post-shot expected goals that a goalkeeper is expected to concede. When you subtract this from the goals they actually concede, you get a sense of how much value they are adding with their shot-stopping. The statistic has a few gaps (like not accounting for goals without shots) but over many seasons, it largely tells a consistent tale.

Let’s look at Onana’s PSxG-GA per 90 and percentile compared to league’s goalkeepers for the last few years.

22/23: -0.11 (42 percentile in Serie A)

21/22: ~Not enough data~

20/21: +0.21 (89 percentile in Eredivisie)

19/20: +0.23 (85 percentile in Eredivisie)

18/19: +0.02 (77 percentile in Eredivisie)

He played less than 10 games in 21/22 due to his ban. If we look at the rest, fbref data seems to suggest that Onana was comfortably in the top quarter during his time at the Dutch league and has dropped to average in the Italian league last year. But there’s more to this than meets the eye. Inter suffered 3 own goals in 22/23 which simply assigned Onana a –3 without him actually having had any chance to save it. If we account for that in the data, his 22/23 Serie A PSxG-GA per 90 jumps to +0.1 and his percentile rises to 62 percentile.

Now let’s take a look at this stat in the Champions league for each year.

22/23: +0.58 (94 percentile in UCL)

21/22: ~Not enough data~

20/21: +0.40 (85 percentile in UCL)

19/20: +0.83 (99 percentile in UCL)

18/19: +0.43 (88 percentile in UCL)

The Champions league data seems to suggest a much clearer top 15 percentile shot-stopper across 4 seasons. At the very least, we have a GK who seems to be excellent for shot stopping across 4 seasons in the Eredivisie and Champions League, while being above average in the Serie A.

Let’s take a look at his 22/23 Serie A save plot to see if there’s any issues there.

This doesn’t seem to suggest anything out of the ordinary except the fact that Onana conceded some really tough shots in the red zones and was largely safe in saving in the blue zones. It seems from this map that opponents finished a lot better than expected against Onana in 22/23.

And we have the data for that too.

Inter’s opponents overperformed their shooting by +2.5 over their expected goals in 22/23. Inter were also 8th for crosses allowed into the penalty area. They sat deep and invited a lot of pressure and suffered shooting overperformance by opponents in the league. These factors coupled with the own goal anomaly indicate that a lot of Onana’s perceived shot-stopping drop in the league for Inter were due to factors outside his control.

I took a look at many Onana matches last season to confirm this and the results only confirmed the same – Onana is a good shot-stopper. There wasn’t any glaring deficiencies in his game to write home about.

His most impressive display from a shot-stopping POV came in the UCL group game against Bayern where Onana suffered 11 shots on target and 3.5 xG but ended up saving 10 of those shots in a game where Bayern completely battered the Inter defence. Here’s a montage of all his saves from that game.

A variety of saves here. What is noticeable is Onana’s ability to hold on to the ball if it’s anywhere near his body. This was apparent in many other games too. Only shots that were towards a corner required a parry and usually it would be a safe parry away from danger. 

To close this section, I see no issues with Onana’s shot stopping from footage and after diving into the data, he seems like a clear top 20 percentile shot-stopper in Europe, so that’s how I’m going to rate him.

Shot-stopping: 8/10

Sweeping

When I did my ‘Search for a GK’ article earlier this year, Onana didn’t come up with a high score. One reason was the above mentioned shot-stopping drop. The other was very low values for sweeping stats. And once again, I’m here to tell you that it is simply a conscience of Inter’s gameplay. Again, let’s look at his numbers across seasons.

Sweeping actions per 90:

22/23: 0.5 (5 percentile in Serie A)

21/22: ~Not enough data~

20/21: 1.85 (89 percentile in Eredivisie)

19/20: 1.71 (94 percentile in Eredivisie)

18/19: 1.14 (73 percentile in Eredivisie)


Avg distance of sweeping actions:

22/23: 12.5 (18 percentile in Serie A)

21/22: ~Not enough data~

20/21: 18.6 (95 percentile in Eredivisie)

19/20: 17.3 (98 percentile in Eredivisie)

18/19: 15.6 (81 percentile in Eredivisie)

Once again, we see a clear difference between Ajax numbers and Inter numbers. This stat has a huge correlation with how high a team’s defensive line is. The lower the line, the lesser the space and opportunity to rack up sweeping actions. 

A good example of his sweeping came at the Qatar 2022 World Cup where Onana broke the record for the most touches (26) outside the box by a goalkeeper in a single game at the World Cup in a 1-0 loss to Switzerland. 


Onana does have the odd mistake when he sweeps as a result of overzealous activity outside the box. But he’s slowly been improving on that compared to a few years ago and there was no instance of such a mistake in the 22/23 season. Overall, once again, I’d give a safe 8.

Sweeping: 8/10

Cross claiming

Once again, let’s dive into the data head-first.

Crosses stopped %:

22/23: 5.3% (58 percentile in Serie A)

21/22: ~Not enough data~

20/21: 6.0% (95 percentile in Eredivisie)

19/20: 9.2% (94 percentile in Eredivisie)

18/19: 6.2% (90 percentile in Eredivisie)

This is a stat that is dependent on crosses faced. The larger the number of crosses faced, the tougher it is to boast a high cross stop %. Inter faced 439 crosses in 22/23 in the league. In 20/21 Ajax faced just 283 crosses. This massive increases in crosses faced is the reason, Onana’s cross stop % seems lower than before. 

From footage analysis, I noticed a few gaps in his cross-claiming technique

  1. He isn’t as proactive as one would think. There are some occasions where he doesn’t attack the aerial ball when he could have. Obviously, he’s still miles better than David de Gea, but I’d say that someone like Diogo Costa is a more aggressive claimer than Onana
  2. He often doesn’t attempt to catch high balls, instead preferring to punch or slap them away. While a few out-of-reach crosses are understandable, it does seem like Onana often goes this route when a clean claim isn’t an option. The technique where he flaps at the ball especially doesn’t seem very reliable and the ball does wind up in the box to an opponent at times. It doesn’t happen often, but it is one cause for concern

As you can see from this montage of cross claims, for almost 70% crosses, he is able to collect cleanly. But the few that are in a crowd or face some competition to beat, he ends up punching or flapping at the cross. The end result is often okay, so I wouldn’t be too harsh. But if a flapped cross dropping to a dangerous area happens 1 in 10 times, I wouldn’t be surprised.

Overall, I’m not worried about his claiming. He is proactive, gets most of them cleanly and often parries the ones he doesn’t. It’s good without being great. I’d have to rate it a step below his other traits.

Cross claiming: 7/10

Summary

To sum up my scores on the four major goalkeeping traits for Andre Onana,

Distribution: 10/10
Shot-stopping: 8/10
Sweeping: 8/10
Cross claiming: 7/10

I’d say that Onana is comfortably in the top 20 percentile of Europe’s op 7 leagues, with a good chance that he could be in the top 10 percentile as well. This puts him at 2nd to 4th best in the Premier League and I think that’s a fair conclusion – he comes in as the top 4 keepers in the league and has a chance to be in the top 2 (Alisson being unshakable at top spot would be my guess for the future). Which makes the £43.8m+£3.4m fee Manchester United paid for Onana seem like a very good deal. At the very least, United fans can sleep with the knowledge that they are getting a massive upgrade on their previous #1. 

(Credits: Statsbomb, fbref, Optaanalyst, Flixier)

Search for a DLP: Summer 2023 Shortlist

by | Feb 20, 2023

While Erik ten Hag has been doing a brilliant job of papering over the cracks this season and delivering results beyond expectations (like the Europa League first leg performance vs Barcelona), with every display the gaps that he’s papering over are also visible. One of these gaps is a midfielder. Specifically, one who can build up play, offer security in progression, handle high pass volumes with good receiving skills and have the ability to carry his way out of pressure situations. Christian Eriksen has been playing that role in a makeshift role and while he is doing a decent job, the fact that he’s an attacking midfielder attempting to be a build up midfielder is obvious on many occasions. While he offers good progression in his passing and is able to show himself to receive the ball well, his security in possession and carrying strength are clear weak points that limit him from being the elite option Ten Hag would like for that role. The other options are even worse, a fact that has become clear since Eriksen’s injury. Fred, Scott and even the new signings Sabitzer have a few more gaps compared to Eriksen for the role. Ten Hag has largely bypassed the midfield in the first phase of possession since Eriksen’s injury.

Casemiro’s form has been undeniably brilliant, but the traits mentioned above are still not something he’s great at. I wrote in detail about what Casemiro is good at and not so good at in possession, for Analytics FC here. In summary, he needs a partner capable of build up, carrying and volume passing traits to create the perfect pivot that covers all defensive and possessional requirements for United. In other words, a midfielder who can run the first phase build up for United, thereby enhancing our ability to progress, keep the ball more and get the front 4 into better positions in attack. For simplicity’s sake, I’m labeling this unicorn as a DLP – Deep-lying playmaker, just for the sake of this article. But keep in mind the traits mentioned above. Those are key.

The Stats considered

I’ve done this exercise a few times before, my recent iterations being Summer 2023 GK targets and Short-term and long-term CF targets. This one largely follows the same structure.

Before diving into the process, let me explain the stats that have been considered and the logic to why they are good or bad for our assessment. This will help confirm what we are looking for.

1) Passes Attempted – 15% weightage

Firstly, we need a midfielder who can handle large pass volumes. Eriksen boasts 85 percentile on this metric, which isn’t bad, and shows how reliant we are on him during progression. Someone who can upgrade on this and handle a large amount of passes would be ideal. Marco Verratti and Toni Kroos are per 90 leaders for this stat among Europe’s Top 5 leagues.

2) Pass Completion % – 15% weightage

While handling large volume, this player needs to be secure in his passing. This is a huge gap in our current midfield with Bruno Fernandes (74%), Casemiro (78%), Eriksen (79%) and Fred (80%) all being below average retention players, largely offering progression at the cost of passing security. The Europe leaders for his stat (Like Stanislav Lobotka and Marco Verratti) are comfortably clocking 90%+ on an average.

3) Progressive Passes – 20% weightage

And while boasting large pass volumes and high pass security, the player also needs to be progressive in their passing. We don’t want a high retention anchor man who passes too safely just to recycle possession. We want someone who is technical enough to progress the game regularly while being secure. Once again, Toni Kroos and Marco Verratti top the per 90 versions for these stats.

4) Total Carry Distance – 10% weightage

We get into some carrying metrics now. Firstly, someone who carries a lot. Simple logic. This player shouldn’t be shy of carrying the ball often, which will force our formula to negate players who prefer to pass quickly instead of carrying in space. This is also a huge squad gap. The midfielder who tops this for United is Bruno Fernandes, and he ranks just 37 percentile in the Premier League for it. The other midfielders are even worse. We badly need carrying power in the midfield. Verratti and Vitinha are Europe leaders for this stat among Top 5 league midfielders.

5) Progressive Carries – 20% weightage

Similar to the passing logic, we need a volume carrier who’s also progressive while carrying, being able to advance the game towards goal. Again, Bruno who tops this for United, is just 28 percentile in the league. Huge gap from Europe leaders like Azzedine Ounahi and Brahim Díaz.

6) Miscontrols – 5% weightage

The security version of carries, this refers to actions when a player fails to control the ball of their own accord. These are usually high for midfielders who receive in crowded areas or under intense pressure during build up. It largely speaks of a good first touch and strength to hold on to the ball, which we need in our midfielder. Casemiro is best in United’s midfield with a decent 66 percentile in the league, but that also stems from him not attempting to receive in tight situations back to goal too often. If we combine the above aggressive passing and carry metrics with this one, we’ll get someone who receives and carries and passes a lot and does so without many mistakes. The Europe leaders for this stat are Julian Weigl and Axel Witsel.

7) Dispossessed – 5% weightage

Largely the same logic as the above stat, but this counts possession losses while controlling the ball due to a clear opponent action like a tackle or pressure.Once again, Casemiro ranks well with a 68 percentile in the league.

8) Passes Received – 10% weightage

Our final stat is a simple one. Volume of passes received. This simply measures how much a player is found during possession and can give us a good indication of his showing himself for the ball during build up and also his teammates’ trust in his technical ability to receive in all situations. Once again, Casemiro tops this with an average 46 percentile in the league. Verratti and Kroos top this in Europe.

NOTE: Before we move on, I must state one important caveat. A few of these stats are highly dependent on team tactics. A midfielder might be playing in a different role to adjust for team tactics or have poor stats on some metrics due to his pivot partner or other teammates not being complementary to his style of play. So, for the sake of clarity, it might be best to take the results of this ranking as to not reflect midfielder ability, but rather reflect midfielder suitability to United’s needs. In short, the score won’t measure absolute talent, but will identify midfielders who are doing well at the the role that we want this season. There could be other talented players who just aren’t playing enough or are being shackled by team tactics. With that clear, let’s move on.

The Ranking process

The rest of the process is largely mechanical. A quick run-down of the steps:

1. I downloaded all stats from fbref.com for Europe’s top 7 leagues for the 22/23 season and picked out the above 8 stats of interest to this assessment

2. I filtered out all midfielders who didn’t even manage to play 8 90s in 22/23. This left us with 605 players who can play in midfield, who make up the data set on which we will be doing further calculations

3. I converted the 8 stats into per 90 versions and then percentile versions. This means that each stat was divided by the number of 90s played by that midfielder, and then converted into a percentile stat. E.g. Eriksen with a 86 percentile on ‘Passes Attempted’ indicates that he’s better than 86% of the midfielders in our data set for this particular stat. I’ve also accounted for the reversed percentiles on the stats for which a lower value is desirable. E.g. Low values of ‘Miscontrols’ were ranked with a higher percentile. In summary, all high percentiles now mean ‘better’, for this assessment

4. Finally, I created a weighted formula using these 8 stats using the above weights. I then factored in league difficulty using UEFA league coefficients for 22/23 giving it a 15% weightage. The last step was to create a percentile version of this weighted score, to ensure our top ranked midfielder scores a 100% and the worst one scores a 1%

The top players, based on this, are as follows:

Rodri, Bernardo Silva, Ilkay Gundogan and Toni Kroos are the best midfielders based on this score and that’s not a bad indication at all of what we’re trying to go for. Reece James and a few other non-midfielders have also snuck in thanks to fbref assigning them a ‘MF’ status due them playing it in the past.

Okay, now comes the hard part and I need to explain this clearly, since it’s tricky. While filtering out players who don’t make sense, I considered 4 things:
a) Age: I kept a limit of 27 years old, since we want a young/young-ish starter for the long term

b) Players who don’t play midfield: Reece James, Leroy Sane, Achraf Hakimi and a few others had the ‘MF’ tag but haven’t played there regularly. I cut them off.
c) Players who won’t transfer to United: Players already playing for top teams or rivals like Eduardo Camavinga, Pedri and Aurelien Tchouameni were cut off

d) Players who aren’t playing a build up role: This was the tough one. After using the above 3 filters, I went one by one from the top of the list to remove players who aren’t handling build up duties. The caveat of the exercise is that we could end up with midfielders who are good at carrying, passing and retention but display these skills higher up the pitch as a box-to-box midfielder or advanced playmaker or adopt more defensive roles in the pivot and actually leave their team’s build up duties to someone else. This resulted in me filtering out a lot of popular choices like Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice, Edson Alvarez, Kouadio Kone, Maxence Cacqueret, Youri Tielemans and Khephren Thuram-Ulie, since they aren’t the ones who are the key playmakers in the first phase for their teams. This doesn’t mean they aren’t capable of it, but just that we are trying to identify players who are already doing what we want at a high level. If there’s an argument that Rice or Bellingham could potentially play the role in a different system, that’s fine, but I’ve removed them with the clause that they aren’t doing so currently and are probably better in a different role (In this case, I feel both are better as advanced box-to-box midfielders)

These filter criteria removed a lot of the usual suspects and odd fits, but I’m fairly confident that the players who are left are elite at what we want, tick all the boxes we need and have a good recent history of playing the role for their respective teams. Without further ado, here’s the final shortlist for United’s Casemiro partner needs for summer 2023:

If you hadn’t thought of Frenkie de Jong even once, when I was explaining the role and picking the metrics, I’ve probably done a poor job so far. Because, that is the player who ticks all the boxes and a huge reason why Erik ten Hag wanted the player last summer. Even though the chances of signing the Dutch player seem low, I’ve included the player thanks to our recent chase and Ten Hag’s connection. Frenkie is the ideal Casemiro partner and it wouldn’t be a stretch to say that acquiring him would solve a majority of our build up issues and create one of the best pivots in Europe.

Among the other options, Kenneth Taylor, Nicolo Rovella, Salis Abdul Ahmed, Ismael Bennacer (€50m release clause activates only in summer 2024) and Johann Lepenant are excellent options that we should be monitoring, but their recent contract situations mean that a summer 2023 move may be tough.

This brings our focus to 4 targets after Frenkie, whom I deem realistic and capable.



Mini Scout reports


Before we dive into the scout reports, let’s first see what we are upgrading on.

Eriksen scored 74% on our exercise, which indicates a good-but-not-great profile for what we want. This matches up with the eye test too and the above stats individually confirm where the gaps are. While he’s done a great job in terms of pass volume, receiving passes and progression via passing, his pass completion, security and carry metrics are all around the average mark.

Fred scored 52% on the exercise and his issues are also clear with the pizza split. While he’s decent at being involved and progression via passing, his retention and carry metrics are poor. Scoring just 18 percentile on miscontrols probably sums up a large part of the frustration associated with Fred when he plays a build up role. He is simply not the player you want receiving under pressure and is prone to miscontrols as a reason. I do think Fred is much better as an advanced midfielder free from build up duties (like the phases under Rangnick and Ten Hag with McTominay/Casmeiro taking the deepest role)

Finally, Scott scored a 14% on our exercise, which really looks bad for the 26 year old. Again, an argument can be made that his role as Casemiro backup this year hasn’t given him any opportunity to score well on build up metrics, but Scott’s unsuitability to either role in the pivot puts his long-term spot in danger, as things stand.

That wraps up the United midfielders. Let’s take a look at our top target in brief.

I’m not going to go into great detail about our ideal target, Frenkie De Jong, since much has been said about him already and the evidence of what he can do for us is available aplenty, not the least the 2 matches he’s playing against us in the Europa League. The only metric Frenkie isn’t elite on is his dispossessed stat, which is a result of him being targeted by opponents to stop Barcelona’s build up this year.

Let’s get into details with the real targets now.

Maxime Lopez, 26, Sassuolo

Career: Starting his youth career in Marseille, Lopez managed to break into the main team at the age of 18. What followed were 4 reasons of consistent gametime as a key player that saw him rack up 150 appearances. Sassuolo moved for him in 2020. The first year, he often partnered Locatelli and sometimes dropped to the bench to make way for Pedro Obiang, but post Locatelli’s move to Juventus in 2021, Lopez has been a key starter, running the build up for Sassuolo. 

Pros: Playing in a pivot (initially with Locatelli, currently with Davide Frattesi), Lopez is elite on the ball. He is a top-tier technician capable of progression via carrying and passing and doing it all with high security, volume and consistency. He’s extremely comfortable receiving in the first phase under pressure and carrying or passing his way out of situations. As his pizza chart shows, he’s superb on all the  metrics we’ve picked and doesn’t have any weakness on the ball. Sassuolo finished 11th last year and are currently 15th, making these stats even more impressive. There’s good reason to believe his stats will all hit elite levels in a better team. While usually running the build up for his team, Lopez also has great awareness in creation and advanced playmaking, often getting ahead or drifting to the wings in some match situations. His managers have also played him as an AM or advanced CM on occasions to good effect. 

Cons: He isn’t a great ball-winner. Lopez doesn’t engage in too many duels preferring to mark the space and use his good positioning to sense danger and block passing lanes instead. He isn’t very strong in duels but tries to engage in them in good volume, indicating he isn’t a pushover or absent in the defensive phase.

Verdict: If you’ve followed my account, you’ll know that I’ve mentioned Lopez many times and he has made my CM shortlists in previous iterations as well. Previously, as a Matic replacement, he was lower on the shortlist thanks to the above con, but with Casemiro as his partner and build up abilities being more important for our current needs, he becomes a top tier target for our next midfielder. He was rumored to be linked to Serie A teams like Napoli and Roma for as low as €16m. Even assuming some Manchester United tax, it’s a steal for such a top player at his peak. I can’t see many issues with this one.

The Devil’s DNA Score: 9/10 

Orkun Kökçü, 22, Feyenoord

Career: A youth product of Feyenoord, Kokcu broke into the main team at the age of 17 in 2018. But it was the following 19/20 campaign where he became a key member featuring 35 times for the club as a 18 year old. That has continued since then as the Turkish international has racked up 150 appearances over 5 years for his maiden club. With his contract ending in 2025 and Slot’s Feyenoord grabbing the attention of top clubs this year, a move to a bigger club seems imminent.

Pros: Kokcu is a very versatile player often given (and justifying) “complete midfielder” tags. I would liken him to Enzo Fernandez in that sense. He can play as a 10 who is the chance creating engine of the team, a box-to-box 8 who can offer workrate, ball-winning, pressing and link defence to attack, or as a build up 6 who orchestrates for the team in possession and defends transitions. His technical ceiling is elite, with progression along with volume of passes and carries almost a guarantee in whatever role he plays. Compared to other options in this list, his ball-winning and attacking output in terms of late surging runs into the box or spotting a good final ball or shot, are good. That’s the reason he has 27 goals and 23 assists in his career so far. As he has matured, managers have used him in deeper roles more often, where his technical proficiency and reading of the game are utilized more. For the past year or so, he has mostly featured in a double pivot as the LCM responsible for build up and has reached new heights to his game, which fits perfectly with what United need. He’s very comfortable dropping between the CBs or in the FB spaces during build up and enters the opponent third only in the last phase after ensuring the team has progressed well.

Cons: As the pizza chart indicates, his only 3 stats that are below average are all security related. This largely stems from the games he plays more advanced. He’s played 9 games this season higher up on the wings or as a 10. Kokcu can’t be called a reliable lone 6. As a Casemiro partner, the combination will work fine, but in games where Casemiro is out, handling lone 6 duties alone for Kokcu might be an issue. Also, although his press resistance is largely good, it could be better. In some high pressure scenarios, he plays the ball long or loses it, which is another reason for his lower security compared to the other options.

Verdict: Kokcu is a gem and given his well-roundedness and age, he can be developed into the role we need, since he’s already ticking most boxes and showing the movement, understanding and technical ability to play as a build up CM. His security aspects are a small concern but could be ironed out in a good system as he matures, if he plays the deeper role consistently. It’s a good bet to make.

The Devil’s DNA Score: 7.5/10

Samuele Ricci, 22, Torino

Career: A youth product of Empoli, Ricci broke into the first team at the young age of 17 in 2019 and became a key member immediately playing on the left side of a diamond as a LCM mezzala tasked with vertical coverage, progression and ball-winning. After 2 years of doing well in the Serie B, the team earned promotion and Ricci’s first Serie A campaign was noticed by Torino, who took him on a loan in the middle of the 21/22 season and then made it permanent at the end of the season. With 29 appearances for Torino over the past year, he’s been their mainstay and has played in a pivot tasked with more playmaking and build up duties.

Pros: Having played as an box-to-box 8 at Empoli and then settled into a Pirlo-esue playmaker role in a pivot for Torino beside Sasa Lukic this season, Ricci is very well rounded and offers almost everything we are looking for, as his pizza chart indicates. Torino have been flying high and are 9th in the league this year. Ricci has been a major part of that revolution, completely looking at home in the top flight in his new role. The Italian is a deceptive athlete. At around six feet tall, he looks like a rangy figure but immediately surprises with his robust approach to physical duels, both on the ground and in the air.  His robustness also extends to his ability to shield and protect the ball in possession, giving the 22-year-old the confidence to receive the ball under pressure, especially in positions close to the sideline. Meanwhile, the slightness of Ricci’s build is advantageous in possession; he is very light on his feet, making him a tidy dribbler in tight spaces and a great ball-carrier when driving through midfield. Ricci is active and reliable in all phases of play, meaning that he can be plugged into any system and instantly provide value without needing an architecture built around his skillset or style of play. He’s the latest in line of well-rounded playmakers Italy has produced – Verratti, Locatelli, Jorginho – and can take their paths and play at the highest level.

Cons: Ricci isn’t elite at advanced progression. He’s more like a consistent progressor type who gets out of situations with good agility and ball control and picks neat tidy passes easily. But the top-tier flair or defence-breaking ball probably might be missing. He isn’t a great final third threat with 4 goals and 6 assists in his career so far, largely from set pieces. 


Verdict: The above con ideally shouldn’t be a big issue at United with Bruno, Eriksen and many other players adept at goal threat and final third creation. What we really need from the build up CM – progression, press resistance, carrying power and passing security – Ricci has that in spades. Even though his contract just started in 2022, Torino is a club that is usually open to sell and he does have an oddly short contract which further indicates that willingness from the club. I don’t think a transfer would cost much due to his comparatively low hype, making this a sensible move overall. I would love a punt on Ricci.

The Devil’s DNA Score: 8/10

Martin Zubimendi, 24, Real Sociedad

Career: Zubimendi’s path has been a straight dream route. He was born in San Sebastian and joined the Real Sociedad academy in 2011 at the age of 12. After featuring for them at all levels, he made his debut for the main team in 2018 at the age 19. The 20/21 campaign was his breakthrough season where he featured 41 times and since then that has continued consistently with the Spaniard having racked up 125 club appearances so far. With a €60m release clause and the likes of Barcelona and Arsenal interested, a move to a big club looms close.

Pros:  Playing at the base of a star-studded diamond, Zubimendi holds his own among Laliga’s best as a very secure DM through whom the majority of the build up and progression goes through. He is extremely efficient in duels with only Gudelj ranking better among La Liga midfielders for aerial and tackle success. His positioning and man-marking make him a top class shielder and transition defender, while his passing progression and security make him reliable. He is very adept at controlling the tempo and sets the pace of a very patient passing structure that Sociedad adopt, which will tie in well with Ten Hag’s ideal system. As a single lone pivot tasked with progression, tempo control, transition defence and build up movement, Zubimendi is elite.

Cons: Zubimendi isn’t the most agile or dynamic midfielder. He feels at home as a central lone 6, but probably lacks the flair and carrying power to nail a pivot role, where he has license to playmake with Casemiro beside him. In that sense, a lot of Zubimendi’s good traits of defending transitions, positional excellence and man marking are shared by Casemiro, while some of the requirements of carrying disruption, joining the attack and creating for the front 4 might be missing.

Verdict: There is a reason Barcelona want Zubimendi as a Busquets replacement. The 24 year old would be at home at the base of a midfield (which contains the profile we actually want in Frenkie de Jong playing further ahead). I would have loved Zubimendi as a Matic replacement 2 years ago, but with Casemiro in the squad, there are more overlaps than before and a few gaps might still exist as a pair, especially carrying power. At a release clause of €60m, that’s probably on the expensive side, but one can also argue that this gives us the flexibility of using Zubimendi even when Casemiro sits out or eventually declines, thereby offering cover for both midfield roles without being an amazing fit for either. All in all, it’s a good option, but not the best one.

The Devil’s DNA Score: 7/10

Final Thoughts

In summary of this exercise, I do think United going all out for Frenkie de Jong makes total sense. He is the perfect fit, but his price and insistence to stay at Barcelona could be factors against a move. In that case, I think we should move hard for Maxime Lopez. The Frenchman ticks all the boxes, plays the role we want and would be a great Casemiro partner, all for a very affordable price. After that, a transfer for Samuele Ricci should be entertained, thanks to his great fitment and his profile not being too high-end to cause any issues for a move. Beyond that, Orkun Kokcu and Martin Zubimendi are also two top tier technicians with both not being an exact fit (one being a little more attacking and one a little more defensive) but can do the role to a great effect and be molded into it for sure. Other than these realistic summer 2023 targets, a close track on Kenneth Taylor and Nicolo Rovella should be maintained, given their high suitability and traits for the role.

Thank you for reading this far. I hope you enjoyed this one. Let me know your thoughts on the options and if I’ve missed any, on my Twitter handle. I will be doing more scout reports and tactical pieces in the near future as well.

(All stats from fbref via Opta)

Search for a GK: Summer 2023 Shortlist

by | Feb 5, 2023

Fans and analysts who have followed United’s issues in the past few years and are also aware of the principles of play Ten Hag likes to implement, would have come across one concern immediately – David de Gea.

The Spanish goalkeeper has proven most of what any keen observer would have told you when Ten Hag was announced as Manchester United manager – De Gea is not fit for the Dutchman’s goalkeeper needs. The difficulties in build up is one key issue, while the inability to proactively sweep and claim crosses only further multiplies the adverse effect the Spaniard has on team tactics. After two games of seeing de Gea fumble, stay on his line, not attack crosses, hesitate to sweep and make mistakes in distribution, Ten Hag employed a kick-it-long system which bypassed the need to build up, and relied on his defence dropping deep to limit the cons of de Gea’s poor sweeping and claiming.

But in recent games, especially post the World Cup, the team has been slowly building towards a more high line high press game with focus on retaining the ball and de Gea has just not looked like a good cog in that system. The game against Arsenal was the most clear example, when both teams were implementing a similar 3-man high press, which meant a fullback was always free during build up. Ramsdale always nailed the cross ball to his fullback and helped Arsenal beat the United press, but on the other end, de Gea routinely failed to find his fullbacks and put them under pressure when he did.



There are many more examples of de Gea not being it, but I’m going to move past that and focus on today’s exercise – finding a starter level goalkeeper for Manchester United who suits Ten Hag’s tactics.

The Stats considered

Before diving into the process, let me explain the stats that have been considered and the logic to why they are good or bad for our assessment.

1) Save %
High=Good
Weightage: 10%

A high save % is good, since we want our goalkeeper to be able to make as many saves as he can, with respect to the shots he faces. A caveat here is that the save % for a keeper conceding too many shots usually drops, while it’s easier to maintain a higher save % when you face fewer shots. One example would be Illan Meslier, who faced the most shots in the league in 21/22, thanks to the chaos in defence before Marcelo Bielsa’s sacking.

2) PSxG Differential:
High=Good
Weightage: 25%

PSxG or Post-Shot Expected Goals is a measure of the quality of shots faced (xG faced by GK one can say). The difference of PSxG and Goals allowed is called PSxG differential or PSxG +/-. A high positive value for this denotes high quality saves. David de Gea is a prime example of (usually) scoring well on this stat, thanks to his dramatic saves from positions most keepers usually aren’t able to. I’m giving this the highest weightage, since it’s critical for a GK.

3) Cross Stop %:
High=Good
Weightage: 15%

This is calculated by dividing crosses stopped by crosses faced. A high value denotes good cross claiming ability. Again, the caveat here is that a keeper bombarded with crosses might find it tougher to maintain a high Cross Stop % compared to one that isn’t.

4) OPA or Defensive Actions outside Penalty Area: 

High=Good
Weightage: 10%

A measure of sweeping, a high value on this denotes the ability of the keeper to perform actions outside his area.

5) OPA Avg Distance:
High=Good
Weightage: 10%

The average distance from goal of all defensive actions outside the penalty area. Similar to the above stat, a higher value is good, for the keeper that we need.

6) Launched Passes Completion %:
High=Good
Weightage: 5%

When a keeper decides to launch a ball from open play, does he complete the pass accurately or is it a random boot-out under pressure that goes to an opposition? This stat answers that question. It separates purposeful long kicks to a teammate from random hoofs under pressure. One caveat here is that having a great target man could result in many ambitious long kicks getting a completion status as well. One example is Samir Handanovic topping this chart two years ago, thanks to Edin Dzeko being the target of most of his long passes.

7) Passes Attempted:
High=Good
Weightage: 5%

For the GK we are looking for, we want someone who isn’t afraid to get on the ball, during open play. A higher value for this is better for us.

8) Pass Launch %:
Low=Good
Weightage: 5%

This denotes the percentage of passes a keeper decides to launch, instead of playing on the ground. For our ideal keeper needs, we want a lower value for this – a keeper who has the technique, press-resistance  and composure to avoid booting the ball long and instead tries to find a player close by.

9) Pass Avg Length:
Low=Good
Weightage: 5%

Quite self-explanatory, the preference is for a keeper who has a lower average pass length, which indicates his priority to find a player closer via a shorter pass, rather than kicking it long.

10) Goal Kick Launch %:
Low=Good
Weightage: 5%

The goal kick version of ‘Pass Launch %’. Again, we want a keeper who executes a short pass from a goal kick more often than not, which is the ideal Ten Hag goal kick routine.

11) Goal Kick Avg Length:
Low=Good
Weightage: 5%

The goal kick version of ‘Pass Avg Length’. We want someone who has a low value on this.

NOTE: Before we move on, I must state one important caveat. A few of these stats are highly dependent on team tactics. A goalkeeper may not be playing short, because the manager has instructed him to kick it long (like ETH did with de Gea after the first 2 losses) or a GK may not be able to score well on sweeping actions, because his team doesn’t play a line high enough for him to get the opportunity to sweep. So, for the sake of clarity, it might be best to take the results of this ranking as to not reflect goalkeeper ability, but rather reflect goalkeeper suitability to United’s needs. In short, the score won’t measure absolute talent, but will identify goalkeepers who are doing well at the the role that we want this season. There could be other talented keepers who just aren’t playing enough or are being shackled by team tactics. With that clear, let’s move on.

The Ranking process

The rest of the process is largely mechanical. A quick run-down of the steps:

1. I downloaded all goalkeeping stats from fbref.com for Europe’s top 7 leagues for the 22/23 season and picked out the above 11 stats of interest to this assessment

2. I filtered out all goalkeepers who didn’t even manage to play 5 90s in 22/23. This left us with 160 goalkeepers, who make up the data set on which we will be doing further calculations

3. I converted the 11 stats into per 90 versions and then percentile versions. This means that each stat was divided by the number of 90s played by that goalkeeper, and then converted into a percentile stat. E.g. David de Gea with a 40 percentile on ‘PSxG Differential’ indicates that he’s better than 40% of the keepers in our data set for this particular stat. I’ve also accounted for the reversed percentiles on the stats for which a lower value is desirable. E.g. Low values of ‘Pass Avg Length’ were ranked with a higher percentile. In summary, all high percentiles now mean ‘better’, for this assessment

4. Finally, I created a weighted formula using these 11 stats using the above weights. I then factored in league difficulty using UEFA league coefficients for 22/23 giving it a 15% weightage. The last step was to create a percentile version of this weighted score, to ensure our top ranked goalkeeper scores a 100% and the worst one scores a 1%

The top goalkeepers, based on this, are as follows:

Manuel Neuer scores a majestic 100% on our metric, closely followed by Kepa, who’s having a resurgent season and Alisson, who still stands tall as Liverpool’s best player this year. This could be considered as a fair assessment of sweeper keeper performances in Europe’s top 7 leagues in 22/23 and Neuer is exactly the kind of keeper we need.

The Shortlist

The reason we’re here is to find a suitable young/peak keeper who is worthy of starting for United in the short and long term. I use age to filter out all goalkeepers above the age of 29 and add a few important contract details and transfer rumors. I also eliminated some GKs who barely crossed the 5 90s played threshold and some unrealistic options like Donnarumma, who surely won’t move from PSG.

The results are as follows:

Gregor Kobel has been having a great season at Dortmund for the second year running. Even last year, his stats were pretty good. United should really be enquiring if he’s available. There are no rumors of him wanting to leave or Dortmund entertaining such a thought, so maybe he’s well settled there.

There are similarly no rumors for Diouf and Vaessen in the market, but it might be wise to keep a track of them given their great stats while having a low profile.

The real targets who have been rumored to move and seem to be available for the right price are Bijlow, Raya, Costa and Meret. I’ll be doing mini reports on the first 3 below.

Mini Scout Reports

Before we dive into the reports of the targets, I want to highlight the holy grail – the profile that we are going for. Here’s Manuel Neuer’s pizza chart using the same 11 stats and assessment detailed above. Remember, the percentiles are adjusted based on what I mentioned (Eg. High percentile for Avg Pass Length means he’s passing short and so on)

What’s immediately noticeable is that Neuer scores well on almost every metric except cross stopping. He’s stopped only 4 crosses from 103 this year, which seems to be surprisingly low. But keeping that aside, it’s as good as it gets. Playing for a league leader team that maintains a high line and engages in short build up, does help the stats, of course, but Neuer has shown what a modern sweeper keeper is all about.

On the other end of the spectrum, let’s take a look at Manchester United’s current starter – David de Gea.

David de Gea scored 16.4% in the above exercise. Only 26 goalkeepers in Europe’s top 7 leagues scored lower than him and only 1 Premier League keeper (Mark Travers, Bournemouth’s backup GK) scored lower than him. It’s safe to say that de Gea is among the worst keepers in the league. What’s even more shocking is that, even keeping aside stats that might be dependent on team tactics, he’s below average for both shot-stopping metrics. He’s 33 percentile on PSxG +/-, which is apparently his strongest stat. The less said about the claiming, the better.

David de Gea is probably the weakest starting member in the United XI currently. Our aim should be to buy someone who represents a massive upgrade on de Gea in the short-term and has the potential to get close to that Neuer pizza chart in the long-term.

Let’s dive into the 3 targets that I recommend the most for this.

Justin Bijlow, 25, Feyenoord

Career History: Bijlow’s rise has been a fairytale one. Representing Feyenoord at all youth levels, he got his break at the end of the 17/18 season at the young age of 19. In the following season, he played a huge part, starting 20 times for the club. With 97 starts across 5 years since his debut, Bijlow is one of Feyenoord’s key players and has already become a household name in the Eredivisie. In 2021, he was called up to the national team by van Gaal and was doing well in World Cup qualification. An unfortunate injury that kept him out for the games in the run-up to the World Cup, ended up with him not being selected for the Finals in Qatar. 


Pros: Bijlow is a very well-rounded profile. His eye-catching and strong saves are immediately noticeable, while spending more time on his games gives a clear indication of a good distributor who likes to be involved, and a good claimer who is authoritative in the air. In general, the two words that come to mind when seeing Bijlow are – aggressive and athletic. He almost feels like an energetic midfielder, with the physical ability and determination in most of his actions being a large driver to his good stats.

Cons: The major con with Bijlow is – his fitness. He’s missed almost 50 games for Feyenoord over the years with various injuries related to foot, knee and toe. It cost him a World Cup Finals spot, and has left Feyenoord missing their key starter in important games as well. 22/23 has been good so far, with no injuries yet, and one can hope that his fitness improves in his peak. Also, his aggression leads to the odd error in passing or claiming, thanks to an overzealous or over-proactive action, but I would say that in the long run, it’s still much better than having a keeper who’s rooted to the line or scared of picking the right pass.

Verdict: I think Bijlow has everything in his locker for a modern GK, and at the age of 25, is already well-rounded and performing at a good level. These pros far outweigh the slight cons of fitness and rashness, both of which should be fixable as he matures. Should be a strong consideration.

Devil’s DNA Score 8/10

David Raya, 28, Brentford

Career History: Raya started out as a youth player for Blackburn Rovers and after a few years of bit-part appearances for the side, at the age of 21, he broke into the first XI and enjoyed 2 years as an undisputed starter for Rovers. His performances earned him a pick up from the smart scouting team at Brentford in 2019. It’s only been up and up since that move, with great performances in the Championship, only followed by great performances in the Premier League. In 2022, his rise earned him 2 caps to Spain ahead of De Gea and that change should probably happen at club level too.


Pros: At age 27, Raya is probably the closest to peak in terms of development, among our shortlist options. And that shows in his game. He is a very consistent shot-stopper, excellent cross claimer and strong sweeper. In terms of overall goalkeeping ability, he has no weakness. Even his distribution is a strong trait. The main reason why his pizza chart scores low on 4 distribution stats is largely due to Brentford adopting a long ball strategy this year. They often go direct to Ivan Toney in the final third thanks to the striker’s excellent hold up play (United should look to him for CF too). The 2 distribution stats which are more in his control score well. Back when he was in the Championship and Brentford dominated possession, Raya would play very short and often boss the build up. So, if you disregard the 4 stats he ranks low on, as issues that won’t matter in a top team playing a short build up style, Raya’s overall ability probably ends up being the best on the shortlist. 


Cons: It’s very hard to pick any cons for Raya. As explained before, his distribution is simply not a negative. He’s excellent at it. If I had to nitpick, the only con I could pick from watching a lot of Raya is that he sometimes tries too many ambitious counter-starters with low-percentage throws after claiming, which lead to the opponent getting the ball, but they also help start some great counters. It’s a minor thing.


Verdict: No matter how hard I look, I cannot see any reason why Raya shouldn’t be a top target. He has all the traits, is already showing them at a high level in the league and will only look better in a top team. His price also seems affordable since he has just 1.5 years left in his contract. At the rumored price, this is a no-brainer. If United don’t seal this, I’m positive that Spurs or Chelsea will pick Raya up this summer. For the first time since I’ve been doing scout reports for United, I’m giving someone a 10.

Devil’s DNA Score: 10/10

Diogo Costa, 23, Porto

Career History: Having just turned 23 last September, it’s fascinating to realize that Costa has already started 72 times for Porto in 2 years as a key starter and got 12 national call-ups for Portugal which includes starting every game in World Cup 2022. It speaks of his monumental talent as a player. 4 years with Porto B leading to 2 years at Porto and reaching the point of every top team wanting you, is as good a career goes till this age.


Pros: Aiming to be a well-rounded sweeper keeper, Costa is an excellent distributor and claimer and a decent shot-stopper. Standing tall at 6’4”, he has excellent aerial reach and the agility to go with it. He is really good at beating the opponent press by playing smart passes to the fullbacks or midfielders, effortlessly starting attacks for his team, no matter what the situation. He is also ever-ready to come off his line and sweep or claim with good control, without being too overzealous or too rooted on his line either. 


Cons: There are no obvious weaknesses to Costa, except the fact that due to his young age, he still feels raw. There is the odd mistake in him, especially when it comes to saving. His positioning might need some extra maturing to bump up his save %. He has also made some high profile errors in Champions League and World Cup games, which could suggest a slight requirement of nerves to handle big games.


Verdict: In terms of profile, Costa is a legitimate wonderkid who has all the traits, but his rawness means that he isn’t the most starter-ready on the list. The ideal top team move probably comes 1-2 years early for the young GK and with a huge Release Clause of £65m, does a summer 2023 move become a case of “too expensive for too raw a player”? I’m inclined to think so. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a fabulous talent and would still take him if there isn’t anyone in the top 5 shortlist names willing to come. But the price and rawness make me feel that there are a few, if not many, better options out there that would help us save some money for other targets like a striker or midfielder.

Devil’s DNA Score: 7/10


Final Thoughts

In summary of this exercise, for the summer transfer window of 2023, I feel Manchester United should pull out all the stops to sign David Raya from Brentford. He seems ready to move with an appealing price and his profile only suggests that he can become one of Europe’s best. If that doesn’t work out or someone else snaps him up, United should enquire about Gregor Kobel, who has also been having a fabulous 1.5 seasons at Dortmund. After those 2, a move for Justin Bijlow of Feyenoord has to be entertained, given the Dutch GK’s skillset and potential. As a final throw of the dice, an expensive move for Diogo Costa that seals the GK role for many years, is a good option as well. 

Thank you for reading this far. I hope you enjoyed this one. Let me know your thoughts on the options and if I’ve missed any, on my Twitter handle. I will be doing more scout reports in the near future, with a Casemiro partner playmaker carrier style midfielder next on my to-do list. Cheers.

(All stats from fbref via Opta)

Search for a CF: Short-term & Long-term Shortlists

by | Dec 30, 2022

The last time I did a CF shortlist exercise in the summer of 2022, the idea was to replace an aging Cristiano Ronaldo, who was missing from pre-season due to personal reasons. About 6 months later, after a walkout, a public interview against the manager and a contract termination, we are back in the same place. Only this time, it’s in a more precarious situation, bang in the middle of a season, right after a tiring World Cup, with everything to play for in the remainder of the season. Manchester United need a striker again, and the requirement is further complicated by objectives of the current season while keeping the future of the club in mind.

Well, it’s time to uncomplicate it. Today, I’ll take a look at data from Europe’s Top 7 leagues (One of the best things about Opta taking over fbref) to create, not one, but two shortlists: a short-term list focussing on targets for January that can do an immediate job and a long-term list of candidates who can carry the great burden of leading the line at Old trafford for the next decade. Let’s get into it.


Creating the Shortlist

I’ve done this a few times now in case you caught my previous CF, CM, RB or RW shortlist exercises. I’m going to keep this part short in the interest of spending more time on our shortlisted candidates.

These are the stats I used to create the weighted score:


NpxG – 10% weightage

NpxG/Shot – 10% weightage

Shots – 10% weightage

Shots on target % – 10% weightage

Pass Completion % – 10% weightage

xA – 10% weightage

Penalty area touches – 10% weightage

Miscontrols – 5% weightage

Dispossessed – 5% weightage

Progressive passes received – 10% weightage

Aerials won – 5% weightage

Aerial win % – 5% weightage

Explanation: Our first responsibility is to find a great goalscorer. ‘NpxG’, ‘Shots’, ‘Shots on target %’ and ‘NpxG/Shot’ together almost make up half the weighted score. This will ensure we get a top goal threat who can get into the box regularly, take shots created by playmakers like Bruno, Shaw and Eriksen and deliver high non-penalty output. We also want someone who moves well in the attacking third and receives a lot, which is why ‘Progressive passes received’ is a factor. ‘xA’ denotes our need for someone with a good final ball to also be able to play in the wingers or oncoming midfielders when possible. He should be able to keep possession losses to a minimum (this ensures a good level of close control and decision making which indirectly indicates good hold up play) which is why ‘Pass Completion %’, ‘Miscontrols’ and ‘Dispossessed’ have been taken. Finally, he needs to be decent aerially, since Ten Hag does like to use his CF as an aerial out-ball from time to time.

Now, onto the calculations.

1. I downloaded data from fbref for all outfield players in Europe

2. I converted all stats to per 90 versions and then possession-adjusted them to better reflect the stats assuming a 50% squad possession across the board

3. I filtered in players labeled as ‘FWD’, basically forwards

4. I filtered in players who have played at least 4 league 90s in 22/23 (I’ve kept this low mainly for the short-term list to uncover backup strikers who aren’t playing much but have done well in limited gametime)

5. I created percentiles within this dataset to order all relevant stats from 0 to 100 percentile

6. I used a weighted formula to create a score from the relevant stat percentiles to rank our desired profiles

7. Finally, in a new addition to my usual method, I give 25% weightage to UEFA league coefficients and 75% to the above weighted score to create a final score 

Here’s what we get:

Going by vibes as well, if someone said that Erling Haaland is the type of CF United need, then our formula is on the right track. Kylian Mbappe being 2nd confirms it. 

Next, I filtered out players who are impossible to sign (like Mbappe and Nunez) and those who don’t play CF regularly as per transfermarkt positions (like Fati and Gnabry). FYI Cody Gakpo got cut due to the second criteria because…..he’s not a CF! Anyways, not our problem anymore.

From the remaining list, I create two shortlists:

  1. Long term: Aged under 27 + Played at least 7 league 90s in 22/23
  2. Short term: Aged above 27 + Haven’t joined their club recently

Let’s take a look at the long-term list first along with some contract and rumored fee details:

Brian Brobbey leads the pack based on the ‘Final Score’. At the young age of 20, while having a strong link to Erik Ten Hag, the striker recently admitted that playing for Manchester United is a dream. The big issue is that he signed for Ajax only in summer 2022 and has a 5-year contract that makes him “not available” for a while, at least.

That takes us to the remaining targets, all of whom represent good options. Let’s run through some of them.

Long-term Option 1: Marcus Thuram

Recent History: Aged 25, Thuram has started as CF in Gladbach’s 4-2-3-1 tactic 17 times this season and has bagged an incredible 13 goals and 4 assists in this period. He has played a lot of LW in his career but has slowly been making the shift to CF. In the 3 seasons before this one, his playing time between LW and CF was almost split equally, but towards the end of last season, he began playing as a striker consistently and was rewarded with a World Cup 2022 call-up ahead of Anthony Martial.

Pros: Having played as a winger for most of his developing years, Thuram is a strong dribbler who not only attempts many dribbles, but is also very successful in beating his man. Last season, he was in the top 10 percentile both for dribbles attempted and dribble success in the Bundesliga. Even as a striker, this year he’s in the top 20 percentile for both. His off-the-ball movement is very strong, highlighted by his strong xG and shot numbers. He gets many shots away from good areas of the pitch thanks to either his strong dribbling or good movement to get behind the defence line, which is something United need. His best work comes as an outlet in transitions, which has proved very important for Untied in recent times and might continue to do so with Bruno and Rashford in the team. In that sense, Thuram fits right in.

Cons: He isn’t really a creative player. His lowest percentile among the metrics we used was for xA. His ability to play back-to-goal against settled low blocks is not poor, but not great either. In the Bundesliga, he is able to enjoy more moments in transition where he’s deadly in comparison to navigating against a rest defence with hold-up play and passing sense. He’s also average aerially and an okay-ish defender from the front.

Verdict: All in all, this probably doesn’t make him as ideal a CF target as our score initially predicted, but with his contract ending in June 2023 and Gladbach looking for a final opportunity to cash in, he could be available for as cheap as €20m this January or for free in the summer, which could pave the way for a more top-tier CF profile later or help with money for other key areas to invest in. In that sense, this probably ends up looking more like a good affordable rotation option with potential resale value, rather than a world-class line leading CF.

Devil’s DNA Score: 5/10

Long-term Option 2: Lois Openda

Recent History: Openda burst onto the scene with an impressive 21/22 campaign for Vitesse, where he bagged 24 goals and 5 assists in 44 appearances, only bested by Sebastian Haller for goals in the league. This prompted RC Lens to splash out €9.80m for his services. Playing the lone CF in Lens’ 3-4-3 this season, Openda has continued his form with 7 goals in 11 starts. His rise has been so remarkable, that the likes of Leicester and Milan have him on their radar for summer 2023.

Pros: He is an excellent dribbler. This helps him play on the wing too. Whether he is attacking centrally or from the sides, he effortlessly dribbles the ball around and gets it on his strong foot, before passing it to a teammate or taking a shot. He offers a lot of transition threat and rarely disappoints with his finishing ability. He is in the top 5 percentile for shots, shots on target and NPxG in Ligue 1, which highlights his ability in front of goal at just the age of 22. He wins a lot of set-pieces for the team since he gets fouled very often. The defenders usually can’t cope with his acceleration.

Cons: In terms of weaknesses, Openda likes to play on the ground and is weak in the air. There are question marks over his back-to-goal play as well. He also gets caught offside often, which shows a slight need of maturity in movement. He’s also not the safest passer in the world, often attempting ambitious passes to teammates which don’t always execute well, but this makes him a decent final ball player and is the main reason he has 9 assists in the last 1.5 years.

Verdict: Overall, Openda represents another reasonable <€50m option for the summer, with a much larger upside and potential, given he’s just 22. His speed, goal-scoring technique and ability to create shots for himself could reach world-class levels at his peak, but his poor aerial presence, hold up doubts and the need for maturity in his game are factors against him.

Devil’s DNA Score: 6/10

Long-term Option 3: Ivan Toney

Recent History: Toney did not make my summer CF shortlist, because of his deeper role last season behind Mbeumo. This season, Brentford are playing a 4-3-3 with Toney as CF and Mbeumo as RW, which has allowed Toney’s natural qualities as a line leader to shine. The result is 12 goals and 3 assists in 16 starts. He’s third in the league for goals and xG behind Erling Haaland and Harry Kane.

Pros: Toney’s best quality is his well-roundedness. He has the hold-up ability, back-to-goal play and aerial presence to play as a target man, the movement, speed and anticipation to play as a poacher and the passing range, progression and teamwork to play as a deeper support striker. It’s a special set and lets him be effective in many ways against different types of opposition. Erik Ten Hag might appreciate such a flexible attacker, and it’s not far-fetched to say that Toney is the most comparable young CF to Sebastian Haller in terms of profile. Toney has the highest aerial win % among our shortlisted players and the only reason he lost marks in the final score was due to low pass % and high miscontrols, both of which are a consequence of Brentford using him regularly as an out ball to get out of their half. In a better team like United, those will look better too.

Cons: Toney doesn’t have any real weakness. If anything, his only weakness is not being elite at any one quality. The major issue to signing him is the ongoing betting allegation against him. He has until January to respond, and could face a ban if found guilty. Even if he doesn’t, there is the issue of image, especially given the Greenwood incident last year. United and other teams might want to wait a bit for this to play out, before assessing a move in the summer. But if that becomes a non-point, at the age of 26, the well-rounded Toney could be a top class starting option for many years, without costing a bomb.

Devil’s DNA Score: 8/10

Long-term Option 4: Goncalo Ramos

Recent History: The 21-year-old Ramos was finding his footing last season with Benfica but since the departure of Darwin Nunez to Liverpool in summer 2022, having been thrust with sole line leading responsibility, Ramos has shone, bagging 10 goals and 1 assist in 13.3 90s played. His displays for Portugal after replacing Ronaldo as a starter showcased his quality as a box CF. Maybe United should follow suit.

Pros: Ramos is the quintessential box striker. His best work comes in the penalty box. It’s where he comes alive and his awareness, movement and finishing come to the fore. That said, having played multiple positions in his developmental phase, he has good traits for hold-up and back-to-goal play and is a good linker when he drops deep. He’s also probably the best defensive worker in our shortlist, willing to press intensely off the ball, which is something United badly need in their attack. His strong curving runs from wide and sharp movements between center-backs make him really tough to mark when he wants to get behind the defence line.

Cons: Ramos isn’t super well-rounded. He can’t be called creative and the further he gets from goal, the lesser of an impact he has. He prefers staying high up ahead and is comfortable in either direction, facing goal or back to goal. This fits well with United’s needs.

Verdict: The only issue with Ramos seems to be his high popularity and Benfica’s insistence on wanting his €120m release clause paid out or even topped. At that cost, United may be deterred, although if the price reduces, there probably isn’t a better box CF option that compliments what the team needs.

Devil’s DNA Score: 9/10

That covers some of the best long-term options for summer 2023. I have covered Tammy Abraham, Victor Osimhen and Lautaro Martinez in the summer 2022 CF shortlist article before. Some of the others like Patson Daka and Brian Brobbey have only recently moved to their clubs and might be tough to pry. 

Let’s move on the short-term list. These are a lot more tricky to pick out. It’s tough to understand which players will be available on a budget fee or loan in January 2023. I’ve picked the players who are aged 27+ and scored the best ones from the list and put down their details. Here’s the result:

Next, I pick 3 players to highlight, who have either been linked to Manchester United recently or have been among the market rumors and could move. The others might just not move in the middle of the season. 

Short–term Option 1: Wissam Ben Yedder

Recent History: Since moving to Monaco in 2019, Ben Yedder has scored 81 goals and made 21 assists in just 109 90s. It’s almost a goal-contribuion-a-game rate. Last season, his 25 league goals were only eclipsed by Kylian Mbappe, and he was the league leader for goals per 90. This year, he has played in a front 2 with Breel Embolo and let the Swiss take up more poaching duties, resulting in a deeper role for Ben Yedder.

Profile: The deeper role is the reason Wissam’s pizza chart showcases a player who has taken shots from distance, not attempted many aerials and shown good stats for progression. It speaks of his well-rounded skillset after many years of experience. Yet, even after not playing as a poacher, Ben Yedder has bagged 10 goals and 2 assists in 14 90s. Ben Yedder has both the poaching skills and the passing and carrying traits to play back-to-goal, progress from deep and be a finisher inside the box.

His only weaknesses are aerial presence and defending from the front. He has never been a good presser and at this declining part of his career, it shouldn’t be expected. 

Verdict: Ben Yedder has been linked to a final hoorah back at Sevilla and Monaco seem open to selling him before his contract ends in 2024. An experienced and well-rounded European heavyweight, Ben Yedder could be a great short-term option for United until they figure out the sale of the club, set up a new structure and target a long-term option.

Devil’s DNA Score: 8/10

Short–term Option 2: Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting

Recent History: With 29 goals in 29 90s for Bayern Munich across 2.5 years, Eric Maxim Choup-Moting has been on fire for the Bavarians. Since Lewandowski’s departure, he has gotten a bit more gametime than before, and his output hasn’t reduced a bit, with 11 goals and 3 assists in just 9 starts in 22/23.

Profile: Eric can be described as a safe poacher. He is great at box movement and gets into really good poaching positions. He’s not a very aggressive shot-taker and is average in the air, but his technique is good enough to control the ball well and be secure and progressive in his passing. He rarely gets dispossessed and is able to keep things ticking in a safe manner while offering constant goal threat and efficient finishing.

Verdict: With 6 months left on his contract, things are getting intense for Choup-Moting’s signature. He is the one linked most strongly to United among the short-term options, but Bayern want to renew and keep him, especially with Sadio Mane injured for a while. If United do get Eric this winter, it could be a great boost to their top 4 chances.

Devil’s DNA Score: 8/10

Short–term Option 3: Niclas Füllkrug

Recent History: At 29, Fullkrug is among the younger options in the short-term list. After his move to Bremen in 2019, it took 2 seasons to settle, with him being unable to displace Josh Sargent as starter. Last season, after the departure of Sargent, Fullkrug got his chance to prove himself and responded with 19 goals and 6 assists in 28 starts. He has started this season in similar fashion, with 10 goals and 3 assists in 16 starts, his form earning him a World Cup 2022 ticket, where he also made a big impression when Germany called upon him.

Profile: Fullkrug is an interesting profile. He is very strong aerially, generates a lot of shots, but is yet able to pass and progress well. A target man with good technique is a good way to sum him up – similar to Wout Weghorst. He has the skills to hold up and play back-to-goal, while being an out ball target. He also has good, even if not elite, movement in the box. His passing is underrated, with him having the presence to pick out good passes. He’s just not someone pacey or quick.

Verdict: As per rumours, Werder Bremen are looking to cash in on the striker to ease their financial woes. Even a fee of  €20m could convince them. At that price, United can obtain a strong but gifted target man whom the likes of Bruno can aim at.

Devil’s DNA Score: 8/10

And that’s a wrap. Apologies for the long-ish article, but I wanted to cover the mini reports in good enough detail as well. Let me know your thoughts on Twitter.

(Player data: Opta via fbref.com, Market data: transfermarkt.com)

Predicting Ten Hag’s Next Tactical Setup

by | Sep 12, 2022

In my previous article here, I explained the tactic Erik Ten Hag has relied on after a disastrous start to his Manchester United career – a gameplan that has got United 4 wins in 4. But, that came at the cost of sacrificing many principles of play that make Ten Hag who he is and have the potential to make United a title-winning team. In all 4 games, United bypassed build up to go long, conceded possession and invited 50-50s and entries into their penalty box, with the hope of defending intensely and hitting their opponents on the break. It has worked, but the long-term sustainability of such a tactica doesn’t seem promising.

In this article, I’m going to go a step ahead and wear my problem-solving hat. I will take a swipe at predicting the gameplan and XI that Ten Hag will move towards at some point in the near future and give some reasons for it.

The playing XI that United need

I’m straight up just going to post my predicted XI and then explain the logic. 

The Defence:

As before, it all starts at the back. Martin Dubravka isn’t the best goalkeeper in the world – far from it. But his best trait just so happens to be – distribution. This is probably Ten Hag’s biggest demand from his keeper and the major requirement to pull off a short build up tactic. It’s also something De Gea is dreadful at. A temporary relief until Dean Henderson or a new goalkeeper takes over in the summer of 2023, Dubravka, at the very least, can help Ten Hag start playing out from the back in a measured and controlled manner, instead of booting the ball away aimlessly, like De Gea currently does.

As explained in the previous article, Harry Maguire and Luke Shaw are weak when it comes to defending transitions, but if their team bosses most of the possession and focuses on short build up and progression from the back, their technical attributes are big pros to have in the team. I’m still skeptical about Maguire turning it around and making it back to the Premier League XI, especially at RCB, where he isn’t as effective as LCB. The cameo against Arsenal highlighted his low confidence, while his performance against Sociedad, although positive, didn’t see enough progression (ony 2 progressive passes), which has been a recurring theme since his switch to the right side. Which is why, Victor Lindelof, who in my opinion came out of a wretched 21/22 as one of the few who could hold his head high, could also make it at RCB. If progression is a need from the center-backs, as it has been for all staple Ten Hag teams, Varane isn’t well suited. The RCB issue also has the potential for needing a whole new center-back once again, if none of these 3 options are deemed worthy by Ten Hag within a year. A return for Jurrien Timber or a similar progressive RCB isn’t out of the question, given the importance of playing out the back for Erik Ten Hag’s ideal approach.

The Midfield:

Coming back to the predicted XI, the midfield puzzle is a lot more complicated. Eriksen’s importance to build-up play has become vital. There’s a reason Ten Hag is starting him in every game and not taking Eriksen off, until it is impossible not to do so. Eriksen is the only midfielder technically good enough to drop deep, receive and progress well. We saw against Brentford, that even when it comes to build up, Eriksen can go wrong, while the Dane’s defensive struggles have also been apparent, like against Arsenal. But nevertheless, he’s what we have in the name of a build up midfielder, so our reliance on him looks set to continue until we sign a proper deep-lying playmaker. This was why the summer 2022 window chase for Frenkie De Jong was vital.

Casemiro’s presence doesn’t solve the build up issue, but it gives the team a high amount of defensive security in transitions. This could also be another reason why Maguire and Shaw might be able to breathe easier compared to the leaky Fred-McTominay pivot. I predict the midfield to line up in a DM triangle with Casemiro at the base. During build up, Eriksen and Casemiro might drop on either side to take care of progression, while Bruno stays ahead. As the ball progresses up the pitch, Eriksen moves ahead and Casemiro drops back to a central anchorman role, to be ready for the defensive transitions if and when the team loses the ball up the pitch.

This movement is something Casemiro would be very familiar with, having done the exact same on many occasions with Toni Kroos and Luka Modric in the last few years at Real Madrid. Another reference to this movement is the De Jong-Schone pivot from Tan Hag’s 17/18 Ajax team where De Jong would drop for build up with Schone staying ahead, and the pair exchanging positions as the ball progressed up the midfield. The game against Sociedad saw a glimpse of this system for 45 minutes when Eriksen and Casemiro were on the pitch. The pair dropping deep during build up might make one call the shape a 4-2-3-1 as well, but formation notations are usually based on the shape in which a team defends in and considering Casemiro might slot as a central DM during defence, a 4-3-3 is the name being given here.

The Attack:

The last piece involves Anthony Martial. This one is a lot more flexible since Rashford is in good form and neither player really screams ‘Ten Hag CF’ anyway. But if a more possession-centric approach that requires hold-up, intricate passing and secure carrying from the CF is the aim, then Martial is probably a better bet than Rashford or Ronaldo. A lot depends on fitness and form, though. Antony’s wide outlet role and Sancho’s playmaking strengths when narrow, could work well in tandem, as long as the front 4 also focus on making constant runs into space, which is a gap the team has as a whole and could dictate the need to involve Rashford and Elanga a lot.



The tactic does have some gaps. The clearest 3 are GK, DLP and CF. Dubravka, Eriksen and Martial are temporary placeholders for 3 roles that each need a much better player. In the worst case scenario, even RCB could be an issue, if Maguire doesn’t recover form and Lindelof and Varane aren’t deemed good enough for the progression needs. 

Summary

When might Ten Hag go for this change in tactic? It’s hard to predict. We’ve already seen some elements of play being trialed for one half vs Real Sociedad. It could be kept as a cup tactic, until the confidence to switch to the same in the Premier League is built. Ten Hag could utilize the current break or the upcoming international break in September or maybe even the World Cup in the winter, to get some time to train for it. It’s also entirely possible that he simply waits until he gets the ideal components for the system. As mentioned, at least 3 roles in the 4-3-3 are forcefits in terms of profile or quality. It’s very possible that he would want a few of them to be addressed in the winter window or summer 2023, before moving towards this setup.

In either case, the current setup, as amazing as its productivity has been, doesn’t feel like the long-term tactic Ten Hag envisioned when he took over the club. The philosophy sacrifices being made for the current results will be eating him up in some corner of his brain. It’s not the approach he had in mind when he made comments about the end of Liverpool and Manchester City’s eras. I feel Ten Hag will move towards a more high-line, short build-up and progressive setup in the near future. When that future is, entirely depends on how the players react to both tactics and how Ten Hag is supported in the market.

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