Search for a CM: Cheick Doucoure

by | May 11, 2022

While rivals Manchester City and Liverpool are locked in a close battle to decide who takes home the major trophies in the last few remaining games of the season, Manchester United’s season has seem finished for a while now. With Champions League qualification mathematically out of reach, the team playing in complete disharmony and disinterest (as evidenced by the recent 4-0 loss to Brighton) and multiple players having already announced their departure with a few others considering the same, it’s safe to say that both fans and players have mentally moved on from this season. 

The midfield search has also been affected by the poor performances of the season. The Devil’s DNA curse of midfielders covered in this series being picked up by top clubs soon after (Locatelli, Guimaraes) seems to have worked its magic again, with Aurélien Tchouaméni being strongly linked to a move to Liverpool last week. Regardless of whether he moves to Liverpool or Real Madrid, it’s safe to say that his heightened reputation and United’s absence from the Champions League have probably put Tchouameni out of reach for the summer. With Matic and Pogba leaving, the need for a midfield progressor is higher than ever, and with multiple positions to cover within a limited budget and no Champions League to offer, a smart and cost-effective buy who fits the tactical requirements is the need of the hour. Enter Cheick Doucoure, our latest recommendation for the player who can solve United’s DM issues.

Career History

Born in his home country Mali in January, 2000, Doucoure consistently played for the academy AS Real Bamako in Mali until the 16/17 season. The famed academy is responsible for kickstarting the careers of many top footballers like Gervinho, Kolo Touré, Salomon Kalou and Jason Denayer. RC Lens, who were then in Ligue 2, scouted him and picked up in 2018, soon after which he became a mainstay in the side at the age of 19. He played a total of 34 games in his debut 18/19 campaign which is extraordinary for a youngster. 

125 appearances over 4 seasons for RC Lens have seen Doucoure make the journey from Ligue 2 to Ligue 1. With Lens finishing 7th last season and sitting at 7th again this season, it has been nothing short of a magical rise for the club, just as it has been for Doucoure. At the tender age of 22, he already seems like the calm and composed leader for the club who dictates play from a deeper midfield position. His consistent and well-rounded displays have started getting attention in Europe and he has been constantly linked with many clubs, especially Premier League ones, in the last 2 windows. With his contract expiring in 2024 and Doucoure seeming ready to take the next step, this summer presents a great opportunity for a club to bolster their midfield with one of Europe’s rising stars without spending a bomb.

 

Profile Details

Name: Cheick Doucouré
Position: CM, DM
Age: 22 (DOB: Jan 8, 2000)
Foot: Right (94% usage)
Height: 180 cm
Nationality: Mali

Strengths & Weaknesses

In our CM shortlist article for the January window, Doucoure came out looking strongest for Pass completion %, Progressive passes, Interceptions, Progressive carry distance and Progressive carries. He ranks in the top 25% among Europe’s midfielders for these metrics making him a great passer and carrier with a good knack of positioning. This is close to what we want for our DM. 

Let’s dive into more detail for his key stats. I created a pizza chart to expand the above stats to 16 key stats we need to check for a DM. Here’s the result:

The more we expand on Doucoure’s passing, the better it looks. He ranks comfortably in the top 25% for all passing metrics and looks especially impressive for progressive passes. And this is  a player playing for RC Lens. There’s a good chance his passing stats (Esp Pass %) go up if he plays in a more structured top team. These passing stats for a 22-year-old show no issues at all.

His carrying looks even more impressive now. While he doesn’t carry too frequently, when he does it often seems to be progressive or entering into the final third. This also fits in exactly with what we want. We don’t want a very dribble-happy DM, just one who knows how to pick his moment to progress via carrying. Doucoure seems exactly like that.

Lastly, his defending deserves a detailed look. His tackles and interceptions look good. It shows he’s not shy to win the ball back but very high percentiles for these would imply a mobile ball-winning type like Fred and McTominay which we don’t want. Similar logic for pressing. We don’t want a presser who leaves his position constantly to press ahead, but someone who archives high success when he presses so as to not let opponents bypass him. Doucoure looks good on that front, pressing very less but boasting a high pressure success %. That fits in with what we want. His dribbled past seems a little low for our criteria. Ideally we would want someone who is rarely dribbled past. This needs further introspection. His aerial win % also doesn’t really turn heads. His physique and height aren’t really that great, so it would be wise to not assume Doucoure will be an aerial monster.

All in all, Doucoure ticks many boxes for the kind of DM we want. His passing and carrying are highly progressive without being a dribble merchant while his defending is measured without being a press-happy midfielder, although his dribbled past stat needs further analysis and his aerial presence isn’t great.

Technical Fitment: 8/10

Tactical Analysis

Let’s dive into how these stats translate to actions on the pitch. We need to understand how RC Lens plays and Doucoure’s role for them this season. Lens have mostly lined up in a 5-2-3 or 5-2-1-2 this season with Doucoure forming the pivot with Fofana on most of those occasions. The duo have started together in a pivot 34 times this season, showcasing their unreal consistency and Lens’ reliance on them. The pair are the 2 of the 3 most played squad members for Lens. In a possible 39 90s (at the time of writing) Fofana has accumulated 38.1 90s and Doucoure has played 33.7. 

Doucoure is the one who holds among the pair as right-sided CM while Fofana is more aggressive as a left-sided box-to-box midfielder. The two have a great understanding of when to move ahead and when to drop back. With a back 5 behind and attacking 3 ahead, one would think that Fofana and Doucoure might find coverage tough, but such is their mobility, awareness and intensity that they dominate midfield against most teams all on their own. Both are highly progressive, see the ball a lot and have impeccable sideways and vertical movement to support play in all 3 phases.

Looking at Doucoure’s pass reception map, it is clear that he acts in a dual role as DM and RCM as well. It is clear that he drops into the DM area to receive passes from his defenders, which is a good sign of what we want from United’s new DM and what the likes of McTominay lack immensely. But other than being heavily involved in the first phase, Doucoure is also able to push up the pitch especially into right-sided areas to help in the second phase of build up and ensure his team enters into the final third. The only player who has more middle third touches and passes received than Doucoure is – you guessed it – Fofana. As the designated advanced playmaker Fofana ends up topping those stats, but Doucoure is a close second. Defender Medina is another one who enjoys a lot of touches and is a target of passes in build up, being key to get Lens out of their third.

But what does Doucoure do after he receives the ball in the positions above. This is what he does:

He progresses. Mind you, this is just a map of his progressive passes. As seen in his pizza chart, his progressive carries are also among Europe’s best. In terms of passes alone, Doucoure has immense variation and ability to spread play on both flanks, find runners wide, thread short grounded central balls and play dangerous balls into the final third as well. He can do it all. He obviously ranks first in his team for progressive passes highlighting Lens’ reliance on him for progression. He also boasts great ranks for long pass completion and passes under pressure showcasing his ability to switch and press resistance.

His pass completion % is bested only by the 3 center-backs who play safe and Fofana. Even from his pizza percentile, his pass completion % was at 72 percentile in Europe. This is probably due to the system Lens play. Doucoure doesn’t have enough players in close proximity to aim at, due to playing a pivot. This probably gets fixed when he plays in a 3 man midfield or has closer options like an inverted wingback or progressive CB. At Lens, he carries all the load himself, leading to his pass % dropping ever so slightly. Overall, it’s not a real concern.

The movement is good, the passing is good, but what about the D in DM? Can he defend?

Yes, he can. As we saw in his pizza chart, Doucoure is great at winning his tackles and pressures. He comes out successful whenever he attempts a tackle or pressure and his dribbled past is decent on a team level too. His recoveries also show good defensive awareness. The reason Doucoure’s dribbled past stat compared to Europe seems a little weak is because Lens as a team are prone to transitions. The open 5-2-3 formation with 4 wide players often leaves the center unguarded. As great as Doucoure is, it leads to him being dribbled past in terms of stats, but his tackles won and pressure success highlight a player who definitely knows when to commit and come out winning. 

Again, logic dictates that with extra support like a 3 man midfield or inverted wingback, Doucoure could really take those numbers higher and become a solid DM. The comparison would be with someone like Rodri, who was a progressive gem at Atletico Madrid at a similar age of 22, but took around a year to adjust to the Premier League especially in terms of defensive transitions. But once that fine art of positioning (and fouling) was perfected, Rodri has looked like a world-class DM in the last 2 seasons. Doucoure can have a similar path in a new system that is structured like Ten Hag’s could be (hopefully) for United next season.

Let’s take a look at 2 examples that showcase all these traits in match situations.

In the first example, Doucoure receives the ball from his center-back while under pressure from the opponent striker. He has the strength to shield and awareness to turn and pick a smooth pass to his right wingback. Doucoure takes a few steps forward to offer support, but sees his wingback unable to progress and smartly holds back to give himself an option for the return ball. He positions himself between the 2 opponents so his wingback can see the pass and return it back to start the move again. Doucoure now has the vision and awareness to spot the gap on the left wing due to the opponent moving across the right to defend. He quickly pings the diagonal with perfect technique before the opponent backline can reorganize. His left winger takes it down perfectly. With the left wingback overlapping, Lens have carved open an attack, all thanks to Doucoure.

The above example was classic progressive DM play who starts the build up, is available for recycling and dictates play by switching and picking out wide players. The next incident is more of an example for when he helps in the advanced phase as a RCM.

Doucoure receives the ball in a tight area on the right side where opponents are crowding on him. He has the awareness to pick a quick short pass to his right wingback and the energy to power past his marker and receive the ball back. The touch from the receive alone takes him past 2 more players, giving him ample space to wait for the overlapping run and thread a through ball on the flank. The wingback is now in a dangerous crossing position. With 2 strong give-and-gos, Doucoure was able to bypass the 4 opponents players on the right flank, which showcases how good a support he can be in advanced and wide areas of the pitch as well.

In summary, Doucoure is adept at playing a nice mix of DM & CM and possesses the awareness and ability for build up, progression and defending. There is a slight improvement needed in reducing his dribbled past stat, which should be very doable in a good system as he develops with age.

Not much to nitpick here. It’s almost as good as it gets.


Tactical Fitment: 9/10

Transfer chances

Contract Start: Dec, 2019
Contract End: Jun, 2024
Weekly Wage: £3,000
Quoted Transfer Fee: £12m
Expected Transfer Fee: £12m-£17m

What’s even more exceptional about Doucoure’s current status is that for a player who boasts such impressive stats and consistency, his wages, transfer fee and media hype are criminally low. His £3,000 weekly wage is £17,000 less than United’s lowest earner, Tahith Chong. His rumored transfer fee is less than what United paid for a 19-year-old Dalot. This is genuinely a case of picking up a hidden gem, who will undoubtedly cost a lot more once he gets picked up by a mid-table club and proves himself for 1-2 years. 

And that’s exactly what is happening. Aston Villa were strongly linked with a £14m move in January and are returning for the Lens midfielder this summer, but they are facing competition from Crystal Palace who are willing to increase the bid to £17m to convince Lens. Let’s be honest – these are peanut fees for the likes of Manchester United. United can easily bid £20m and offer a 10x wage increase and still get a top footballer who is a tactical fit for a profile they desperately need and call it a steal. 

These are the kind of players who United later get linked with for heavy prices at their peak. One example is Michael Olise, whom Palace picked up last year from the Championship for just £8m, but is now being rumoured to cost upwards of £50m for a potential move. Doucoure will most likely have such an effect if he joins a mid-table EPL team this summer. If United have learnt anything from their transfer gaffes over the last decade and want to prove that the new transfer committee (after multiple sackings of the old guard in the last month) is truly a football-focused strategic one, they should be all over gems like Doucoure, before such players get too big for United.

The deal is an easy one. United can easily swoop in and offer a fee and terms better than Villa and Palace at any moment. It would take less than a day for Doucoure and Lens to accept the offer and United to get their man early for Ten Hag to start pre-season work on time. It all depends on intention though. Are United even looking for such a player? Is the scouting team even aware? Either way, it would be a huge miss if they don’t make a move this summer.

Thanks to the ease of a potential transfer, I’m rating the chances highly. This one should be a shut-and-closed case if United show intent.

Transfer Chances: 10/10

Final thoughts

In summary, Doucoure has none of the hype, wages and fee of a potential top DM, but he has the progression, consistency, defensive strength and intelligence of one. This is a classic case of ‘hidden gem’. A low-cost transfer and 1-2 years of settling into a system, can iron out the few gaps and make Doucoure a very top DM at his peak.

Technical Fitment: 8/10
Tactical Fitment: 9/10
Transfer Chances: 10/10
Overall Devil’s DNA Score: 9/10

Whom would you like to see covered next from our shortlist?

Bruno Guimarães – 8/10
Maxime Lopez
Ismaël Bennacer
Florian Grillitsch
Aurélien Tchouaméni – 8/10
Cheick Doucouré – 9/10
Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa

(Notes:
1. All playing stats are from Fbref.com
2. All contract information is from Transfermarkt.com
3. All viz are made using Opta data
4. All images are from Getty Images
5. All mentioned data is accurate till May 10th, 2022)

Loan Report: James Garner 21/22

by | Apr 22, 2022

A 4-0 thrashing at the hands of rivals Liverpool, Matic announcing his departure, Pogba getting injured and out for the reason, the sacking of 2 leaders in the scouting system, Erik Ten Hag’s announcement as new manager, Maguire’s family getting a bomb threat – just another week for everyone’s favourite club in red, Manchester United.

Amidst all the chaos, sticking to matters on the pitch, it wasn’t hard to notice that the absence of Fred and McTominay (a pair often slandered on social media for not being good enough) has led United to field midfield combinations that have featured Pogba, Matic, Lingard, Bruno and even Mata, in a midfield 3 in the last 3 games. 4 of those players could be leaving in a month and Bruno is hardly a midfielder strictly speaking. Such is the dire need for midfielders in this United squad.

But where there is management chaos and squad planning failure, there is opportunity. The monumental midfield gap, coupled with requirements in other positions, means that transfers won’t be enough to plug all the holes. How fortunate it is then that United have a 21-year-old midfielder on loan, who has been developing consistently and is now ready to play a part in the senior team.

James Garner has been impressive for Nottingham Forest this season and there are many rumors flying around about Nottingham wanting to keep him and Leeds United wanting to buy him. In this article, I explain why the Red Devils should integrate Garner into Erik Ten Hag’s plans this summer. I analyze Garner’s movement, passing, defending and his fitment into Ten Hag’s system.



Garner’s movement: An engine-like B2B

There has been some debate about Garner’s best role in recent years. He played for a few years at the U23 level for Manchester United as the deepest player in midfield – a classic deep-lying playmaker who dictates the game and shields the defence. This prompted many Manchester United fans to hail him as the second coming of Michael Carrick. 

While he was okay in that role for a while, it was the shift to a more aggressive box-to-box role in 2019 that really saw him come to life. He combined with Greenwood, Elanga and Shoretire to devastating effect for the U23s that season and proved that he had more to offer in an attacking midfield role.

Since then, on his loan spells at Watford and Nottingham Forest, he has retained a similar role often playing as a linker midfield player or a box-to-box locomotive with license to run, roam, create and press, instead of playing a holding role in midfield. His 21/22 season with Forest has confirmed the same movement. Here’s a viz of this season.

Forest have lined up in a 5-2-3 for most part this season with Garner and Yates forming the midfield pivot when fit. Garner usually takes the left-sided CM role with more license to move up and connect with the front 3, while Yates takes up the more defensive RCM role often holding to provide cover when Garner and the wingbacks are caught up. 

Garner’s all actions heat map confirms how active he is all over the pitch. He barely has a red hot zone on the pitch but a lot of blue all over it, showcasing the freedom he gets to roam around the pitch, whether it’s to create in the final 3rd, put pressure in the middle 3rd or defend in his own 3rd. This is a midfielder who isn’t bound to any zones on the pitch and loves to constantly run up and down and also go wide for support.

His pass reception map gives us a stronger clue to the areas he likes to get into when he has to receive the ball from his teammates. There is a clearer insight of his left-leaning role with almost an even split of the red hot zone between receptions in his half during the build up phase and receptions in the opponent half when the team is attacking. The latter zone especially being spread out and including wide areas on the left shows how ready Garner is to go to the wings to provide support during the attack. During attack, he loves drifting into the left half-space area and receiving from his wingback or winger to then turn his body towards goal and obtain the angle to pass or shoot almost like a creative no.10 player.

In summary, Garner’s movement indicates how he doesn’t sit or hold in midfield, but loves to run all over the pitch. This includes build up receptions in his half and almost AM-style wide and high receptions during attack. If we had to assign a name to this role, it would be: box-to-box midfielder.

Garner’s passing: A set-piece demon

Even if his role did change, the fact that Garner is inherently creative hasn’t. What has caught the eye of social media followers are Garner’s videos of an assist or goal which often includes a set piece. It’s unsurprising that both his assists and 3 of his goals this season have all come from set pieces. He is a real threat when it comes to dead-ball situations.


Let’s take a look at his pass maps.

Other than the 2 assists, Garner has created many chances, most of them coming from set pieces. The dozen corners are visible in the viz while some of the balls into the box are also from free kicks.

Other than dead-ball situations, his chances created from open play often originate from the left side of the pitch where he angles in a diagonal ball into the box or towards the right wing, once again confirming his preference to create from the left or central zones like a left-leaning AM during attack.

Moving to the map of his progressive passes, it’s clear to see the variation Garner has. His passing range is good. He is able to provide switches to the opposite wing, through balls to the wide players and long balls to the attackers, when he has time and space. Garner’s progression isn’t the metronome deep-playmaking kind containing short passing and central penetration, but is more like the spreading-the-play kind, where a team moves forward or gets into empty spaces thanks to his game-progressing balls into good advanced areas.

This once again ties in well with our theme of Garner being a box-to-box midfielder who prefers to open up the game and help his team advance, rather than progress from deep and help build up. His set piece threat and creativity in the final third from a left-leaning angle are his main chance creation weapons.

Garner’s defending: Intense and willing participant

From his movement and passing if you expected Garner to be defensively shy, you couldn’t have been more wrong.

The best word to describe Garner’s defending is intense. His constant running isn’t limited to when his team has the ball. He puts in a hard shift when his team doesn’t. What’s particularly impressive is the number of recoveries and the spread of them. Garner is constantly picking up second balls across the pitch. He has a host of clearances in his box and many aerial wins outside the box as well showing one area of his game that has improved massively – his physicality. He’s not shy to get into an aerial duel anymore. 

His tackles, interceptions and challenges especially in the middle third are also impressive, once again showing how far ahead he is willing to go to win the ball back. Garner is a constant presser and is prepared to hunt high and wide for the ball.

If there was some doubt about which type of box-to-box player Garner was – the attacking kind like Pogba or Gundogan or the defensive kind like Fred or Kante – though Garner is capable of playing both roles well, it might be safer to assume given his intensity and ball-winning focus, that he’s closer to the second kind. His days as a DM in the academy have given him a good sense of defensive awareness. While his positioning might not be enough for a holding role, it helps him note the flow of the attack, get stuck in and win the ball back for his team consistently. 

In summary of this section, Garner is a constant presser, runner, tackler and ball-winner in defence, boasting a wide area of operation and various means to win the ball back – something which would fit really well with Erik Ten hag’s pressing ethos and midfield demands.

One aspect that hasn’t been covered so far is his goal-scoring. Most of Garner’s goals are either long-range shots from a left-sided AM position or direct free kicks from distance. He has managed to score 8 goals for Nottingham over the past 1.5 years. 

Fitment for Erik Ten Hag tactics

We have already written a detailed article on Erik Ten Hag’s tactics here. To summarize his formation, he enjoys a sweeper keeper, progressive defenders with 2 fullbacks who invert, holding DM who shields the aggressive defence, 2 intense CMs who offer support to the attack, 2 inverted wingers who provide width and one CF capable of linking play with the front 5. Assuming Ten Hag recreates much of the current Ajax tactic to United next season, the main candidates for the B2B CM role (Gravenberch currently) and AM role (Berghuis currently) are probably Fred and Bruno respectively. The anchor man DM role (Alvarez currently) is a real head-scratcher and probably needs a new signing instead of risking McTominay there.

Among these 3 midfield options from all that we have discussed so far, Garner would fit best in the B2B role. He has the pressing intensity, ability to link play from defence to attack and movement to connect with the front 3, to pull off that role to perfection. The AM role could be a nice second option since Garner additionally has the creativity and shooting threat to contribute there as well. The DM role needing high levels of positioning, transition defence and physicality, makes that a far 3rd choice option in case of an emergency need. 

So, in summary a rotation option for Fred and Bruno would probably suit him the most. In an ideal world, McTominay and Mejbri also should be competing for the same 2 roles as backup as well. This leads to the major ask for the window to be the DM United have been crying out for for 2+ years now. If United can buy a consistent DM and integrate Garner for the advanced midfield roles, the current paper-thin midfield could start looking strong really quick.

What happens next

A lot still depends on whether Manchester United include Garner in the squad next year. Garner still has a contract until 2024, with the option of an extension, so there is no danger of losing him for free or cheap anytime soon. A few weeks ago, Phil Hay of the Athletic mentioned the possibility of Leeds signing Manchester United’s James Garner, despite the rivalry between the clubs.


“It’ll be interesting to see who Leeds target. James Garner, the Manchester United midfielder who’s on loan at Nottingham Forest in the Championship and having a very good year, is someone I’ve heard mentioned recently,” Hay told The Athletic.

This is the latest rumor in a line of many over the past few months with outlets like Telegraph and DailyMail carrying stories of strong interest from Leeds United to bolster their midfield in the coming summer with James Garner.

In an interview with Footballleagueworld, transfer guru Dean Jones reflected that the Englishman would intend to continue as starter wherever he goes next. “Garner’s having a great time this season, and he doesn’t want to be on the fringes anywhere else at the moment. He’s shown his value, and he wants to kick on next season and be a big part of a team, wherever that is.”

If United are unable to convince one of their brightest academy midfield prospects of the last decade to be a part of the senior team setup, especially when their midfield badly needs some bodies and he fits really well in Ten Hag’s philosophy, it would be a real shame.

Search for a RB: Summer 2022 Shortlist

by | Apr 8, 2022

The Search for a CM series has so far covered a Winter 2022 shortlist and scout reports on Locatelli, Guimaraes, Kamara and Tchouameni. It seems like Manchester United don’t really want a CM anytime soon, or at the very least are pushing this key decision until a new manager (mostly Erik Ten Hag) is confirmed and our Champions League status is sealed.

So, we move on to the other problem areas of the squad. The next 3 gaps appear to be CF, RW and RB. Aaron Wan-Bissaka’s woeful form and unsuitability to a progressive or attacking role means that United probably need one player there, whether it be competition for Dalot or a clear upgrade. While CF and RW might require more understanding of what a new manager wants in that role, RB is something we can take a shot at. The trait requirements for a top team RB are fairly consistent for us to create a shortlist.

In this article, I will analyze right-sided defenders who can play in a back 4 or 5 from Europe’s top 5 leagues, create a shortlist using their 21/22 metrics and provide mini scout reports of the top 5 candidates United should go for in the coming summer 2022 window.


A few notes before we start:
1. Only players from the top 5 leagues have been considered. If you have a request for a non T5 player, please inform us and we’ll try to cover them in an individual report
2. The filters are taken based on what I feel is needed most for United’s RB. More will be explained below, but a different shortlist could emerge for a totally different profile. This is simply my idea of what United need most
3. All stats are from Fbref.com (via Statsbomb)

The Role

Before we get into the process, let’s understand the role we are going for. What top team RBs like Trent Alexander-Arnold and Reece James are delivering on that Aaron Wan-Bissaka isn’t able to, is a good starting point.

Progression is the major gap that comes to mind. Both are able to progress well through passing & carrying which AWB struggles with and that remains one of the greatest responsibilities of a modern full-back. Dalot is also good in this aspect, already beating AWB for progression in the deep right zones and making our top 4 progressors even after playing much lesser than everyone else (See viz below).

After progression, the second main criteria would be creativity. A modern fullback needs to bear some load of chance creation which indicates some requirement of final ball delivery and final third decision-making. This is an aspect both AWB and Dalot lack. A better example might be Shaw who is much better at carrying into advanced areas and providing key passes. Shaw is our 2nd best chance creator behind Bruno for the 2nd year running. We need someone of his final 3rd threat for our new RB.

Finally, we need some level of defending and safety from the RB. While hardcore defending metrics like tackles and aerial wins aren’t a necessity, a basic level of trust in the form of ball control, ball retention & difficulty in getting dribbled past needs to be maintained.

With these 3 buckets in mind, let’s dive into the process.



The Process

STEP 1: Cleaning data

I downloaded all passing, defending and carrying stats per 90 for all top 5 league players from Fbref.com. Using Transfermarkt’s position data we first filter out all players except Right backs and Right Midfielders (Some right wingbacks appear in the latter category). Credit to @jaseviz, @NinadB_06, @exceedingxpuns for the position dataset.

Next we filter out all players who have not even played 12 90s this season. Most teams have played 30+ league games so far, so expecting our man to at least rack up 40% of his team’s gametime seems fair. Anything lesser indicates he might not be ready for a step up to United or is too injury-prone.

Here’s the first look at the list.

STEP 2: Choosing the relevant stats


Remember the 3 buckets we spoke about before? I have picked the following metrics for them:

Progression (High Priority): Progressive Passes, Progressive Carries
Creativity (Medium Priority): Key Passes, xA
Safety/Defending (Low Priority): Miscontrols, Dispossessed, Dribbled Past

These are the 7 stats we are going to focus on. We create Possession-adjusted versions of these stats to better reflect them when everyone has the same 50% possession to deliver in.

STEP 3: Filtering what we need

Next, I convert the 7 stats we just narrowed down on into percentiles. This means that if someone is a 100 percentile on Possession-adjusted Progressive passes per 90, he is the leader for that stat in the list we just made of RBs/RMs with >12 90s. Percentiles are a good way to judge how far/close the stat is to the leader stat.

I also create a ‘Weighted Overall Score’ which combines our 7 stats into one score giving 25% weightage each to Progressive Passes and Progressive Carries, 15% weightage each to xA and Key Passes, 10% weightage to Dribbled Past and 5% weightage each for Miscontrols and Dispossessed, based on the priority explained earlier.

When sorted by this score, we are starting to get good results.

Almost there. The obvious issue here is age. We don’t want players like Cuadrado and Candreva. Let’s set our age filter to be born after 1996 i.e. aged 25 or lesser. That seems like a fair age below which we can get realistic targets that are peak or potential. Here are the results:

That looks like a shortlist. Since we kept things a little vague here, we have a longer shortlist to work with. But there is a way in which we can judge more specifically who’s good at what.

STEP 4: Picking the top targets

I make a ternary plot using the 3 brackets we discussed, to check what our shortlisted RBs are better at. I have kept a minimum Overall score of 51% (Same list as shown in image) to limit the list to 20 options. Here’s the result:

As we can see, the likes of Alexander-Arnold and Reece James look good here. They are balanced for the 3 brackets we were going for and also appear at the top for Overall Weighted Score. That is a good reference point for the RB we are looking for.

Seeing the bottom-left, some RBs like Lirola, Lamptey and Hakimi lean heavily towards chance creation which can be confirmed with their on-pitch style. They play RWB in a back 5 and almost function like right wingers at times.

Looking at the right-top, we see Dalot, Aarons, Celik and Pierre-Gabriel who are good at Progression and defending but not chance creation. This goes in line with what we have said before about Dalot and his performances this season. We probably need to avoid another of the same type.


So, combining what we saw from the Weighted Score and the Ternary Plot distribution and removing a few players that seem impossible at this point (like Reece, Hakimi and Trent), we arrive at the 5 top candidates:

Name Squad Age Overall Score Ternary Plot Reading
Kyle Walker-Peters Southampton 24 82.1% Balanced
Nahuel Molina Udinese 24 71.4% Balanced
Jeremie Frimpong Leverkusen 21 65.2% Slightly better chance creation 
Riddle Baku Wolfsburg 23 64.0% Slightly better chance creation 
Tariq Lamptey Brighton 21 59.1% High chance creation 




Scout Reports

Usually, I would have stopped here, like our previous shortlist articles, but in the interest of going one step further and providing details about the 5 targets, I dive into their mini scout reports below.

Before we look at the main list, here’s a percentile chart snapshot of what we are upgrading on, so that the comparison is easier.

Aaron Wan-Bissaka



Wan-Bissaka didn’t really turn any heads even during his slightly positive time under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. But since the sacking of the Norwegian and Dalot’s emergence, AWB looks really far from the required standard for a top team RB and probably needs urgent replacing in the coming summer.

Strengths: AWB is a strong man-marker rarely letting people get past him as indicated by his stat in the pizza chart, Dribbled Past. He’s also a good dribbler attempting many carries with good success.

Weaknesses: His progressive carries and Carries into penalty area aren’t great, indicating a lack of drive to actually get into good areas. His passing and chance creation is where it starts going into woeful territory. AWB is below the Europe average mark on most of these stats with Crosses, Progressive Passes and Passes into penalty area being the worst – this is what we drastically need to upgrade on.

Now that we know the problem, let’s look at the 5 solutions in order of Weighted Overall Score.


Kyle Walker-Peters

Club: Southampton
Nation: England

Age: 24
Positions: RB, LB, RWB

Foot: Right (89%)
Contract Expiry: June, 2025


Tottenham selling Walker-Peters to Southampton for £12m is starting to look like a steal every passing year. Since he joined The Saints in Jan 2020, he’s only been growing from strength to strength. Last season he started 35 times at RB in a back 4, while this season he’s started 24 times already with 16 of those coming at LB, showcasing his versatility.

His first England call up and debut against Switzerland during this March International break has been well deserved. His call-up ahead of Wan-Bissaka is a correct reflection of where both stand and United should also think of making the same upgrade.

Strengths: Our Ternary plot had him as a very balanced profile for the 7 metrics we chose, but even upon expanding into the 16 metrics in the pizza chart, Walker-Peters continues to look balanced. His greatest strength is his dribbling where he notches 90+ percentiles on most stats easily. But he’s no slouch as a passer either, dealing in the high 80s for progression and final 3rd entry. Defensively also, he looks very strong in terms of not being dribbled past (almost same as AWB) and Pressure Success %.

Weaknesses: The only stat he looks slightly weak on is Crosses which is partly a reflection of him playing at LB this season but even last season from RB, he was in the lower percentiles. Hopefully, his progression and chance creation from other means can cover that aspect. He is also aerially weak, standing at 5’8’ and not having a physical presence in general, so it would be a risk to assign him as a marker on set pieces or leave far post crosses for him to deal with alone.

Final Devil’s DNA Score: 10/10


Nahuel Molina

Club: Udinese
Nation: Argentina

Age: 24
Positions: RWB

Foot: Right (91%)
Contract Expiry: June, 2026

Molina moved from Argentina to Udinese at the start of last season, and after taking some time to settle, has established himself as a nailed-on starter for the club. He’s already crossed the 19 starts of last season with 24 in this season. The major caveat around Molina is that he has consistently played only RWB in a back 5 in both seasons.

Strengths: Unlike Walker-Peters, Molina shines in his crossing. He crosses 70 percentile for Key Passes, Crosses and Passes into penalty area which showcase a strong final ball threat. He is also a decent dribbler often prioritizing safety but his final 3rd entries show promise.

Weaknesses: Molina isn’t the best progressor in the world. He just about crosses the average for our progressions needs. Additionally, there is a huge question mark over his defending thanks to the back 5 role. His aerial and ground duels are largely untested and have been weak on the few times he’s been challenged, while his pressure success % stat is very grim. Probably, he’s the one from our shortlist who has suffered the most after the expansion from the initial 7 stats.

Final Devil’s DNA Score: 6/10

Jeremie Frimpong

Club: Bayer Leverkusen
Nation: Netherlands

Age: 21
Positions: RWB, RB, RW

Foot: Right (88%)
Contract Expiry: June, 2025

Originating from the Manchester City Academy, Frimpong found his footing in Celtic, where he played a lot of RB in back 4. This led to a transfer to Leverkusen in the winter window of last season. He took time to settle, starting just 6 times before the season ended. But after a pre-season with the club, he’s come out smashing this season starting 33 times establishing himself as a key starter at RB.

Strengths: Frimpong is all about drive and energy. His dribbling is already at an elite level, boasting league leader percentiles. He also has a decent final ball but prefers to carry into good areas and create a clearer chance, which his high xA highlights. His energy & physical excellence makes him an amazing tracker back, great presser & very tough to get past which is why his dribbled past stat is also close to the league leader. He also has age on his side to improve further, compared to the other targets.

Weaknesses: Frimpong cannot be called technical or creative. His passing leaves a lot to be desired which is highlighted by his poor Progressive passes and Passes into final 3rd stats. He often prefers to dribble out of situations than pass and doesn’t have the vision and technique to execute great forward passes. His high energy style also leads to low pressure success.


Final Devil’s DNA Score: 8/10

Ridle Baku

Club: Wolfsburg
Nation: Germany

Age: 23
Positions: RWB, RB, CM, RW

Foot: Right (82%)
Contract Expiry: June, 2025


Rising through the youth ranks of Mainz, Baku established himself as a starter for the senior side and played a key role for them for 2 years before Wolfsburg came calling in last season’s summer window. Since then Baku has been an important cog starting 34 times last season and 28 this season. Baku’s versatility is immediately noticeable – capable of playing anywhere on the right side of the pitch and even as a central midfielder. His most senior appearances have been at RB then RWB and then CM.

Strengths: Baku often feels like a box-to-box midfielder who prefers right-sided areas. Another one who has boundless energy, he’s a fierce presser and tackler which make him very useful to win the ball high and support an aggressive press. His dribbling skill means he possesses a strong drive with the ball. His passing entries into the penalty area and his final ball are also very good, making him a very high-impact final third player.

Weaknesses: A lot of his weaknesses can be directly correlated to work in deeper areas or actions related to safety and retention. He isn’t a great progressive passer from deep and doesn’t help much in build up. He’s the guy making runs for a playmaker to pass to, not the one making the pass. His defending metrics are also weak, having a low dribbled past and pressure success, thanks to his tendency to press very high and leave space. Baku might be best utilized as a very attacking wingback or fullback with low defensive and build up duties and high final 3rd freedom. This could work as a complimentary profile to Dalot.

Final Devil’s DNA Score: 7/10

Tariq Lamptey

Club: Brighton
Nation: England

Age: 21
Positions: RWB, RB

Foot: Right (75%)
Contract Expiry: June, 2025

A Chelsea youth prospect, Lamptey moved to Brighton during the start of the 19/20 season. His integration has been gradual, getting 7 starts in his first season and 11 in his 2nd. The last 2 seasons saw him feature regularly as a trusted starter under Graham Potter whether it be at RB or RWB. 2 injuries over the last 2 years have made him miss 33 games, which is the main reason for his low number of starts.

Strengths: Lamptey is a brilliant attacker. His dribbling is world class while his final ball is also excellent for a player of his age. He constantly gets past his man, dribbles into good areas and provides penetrative crosses for his teammates. He also has some solid numbers for not getting dribbled past easily. He has age on his side to develop more.

Weaknesses: What he has in terms of final ball and crossing, he lacks in terms of progressive passing. He needs to be used as the wide creative outlet instead of the build up option. His dribble success is low because he attempts to beat his man a lot – an issue that can be mitigated if his attempts are high and wide up the pitch. His injury issues are also a concern and a team interested in him might want to see him remain fit longer before taking a plunge. Lamptey has to be seen as a wide creative force and again presents a complimentary option to Dalot.

Final Devil’s DNA Score: 8/10



Summary

We can now rearrange our final 5’s table with these updated final scores and thoughts.

Name Squad Age Final DDNA Score (on 10) Comments
Kyle Walker-Peters Southampton 24 10 Well-balanced high-performing RB/LB, Almost no cons
Jeremie Frimpong Leverkusen 21 8 Physical RB/RWB, Great carrying & creation, Not technical. Not build-up friendly
Tariq Lamptey Brighton 21 8 Attacking RWB/RB, Elite dribbling & final ball, Not build-up friendly, Injury issues
Riddle Baku Wolfsburg 23 7 Attacking RWB with good carrying & passing, Weak at defending
Nahuel Molina Udinese 24 6 Attacking passing-heavy RWB, Weak at defending & carrying

One caveat I must highlight is that, just like how Molina’s rating reduced when we went into his detailed report, alternatively, other players from the shortlist (like Livramento for example) who were low on Weighted Overall Score, could increase on final score, once we take a more detailed look at them. If we ever do a second round of this, we can probably do detailed reports on the next 5 players who looked good on Overall Score and Ternary reading.

Thanks for reading so far. Apologies for the slightly long-ish piece, but I wanted to detail the targets, for those interested in that as well.

Who are you most excited about?
Is there someone who got missed?
Any scout report you’d like to see beyond the names mentioned?

Tell us on Twitter and we’ll get to it!

Search for a CM: Aurelien Tchouameni

by | Mar 3, 2022

United’s insistence of passing up window after window without buying a specialist DM has now gone from a tale of incompetence to one of utter indifference to the team’s needs. So far, as a part of this series, we have written a summer 2021 shortlist, a winter 2022 shortlist and scout reports on Locatelli and Guimaraes. The result has seen none of the shortlisted CMs even be linked to United while the 2 scouted ones have been picked up right after we released the articles. So far, only pain.

But, enterprising and hopeful as ever, today we bring you another edition of this series. Our focus is on Aurelien Tchouameni, the latest midfielder from France’s talent factory. We discuss his playing style, tactical fitment for Manchester United & summer transfer chances below. 


Career History

Born in Bordeaux in January 2000, Tchouameni spent 9 years in the Bordeaux academy racking up appearances at every level, before finally getting his senior team debut in July 2018 as a then 18-year-old. He turned up 19 times that season for the side and followed it up with another 18 appearances in just half a season, which was enough for Monaco to shell out €18m for him in the January 2020 window. After taking some time to settle in that season, Tchouameni emerged as a key starter for the club from the following summer. He made 42 appearances (36 in the league alone out of 38 possible games) in the 20/21 season at the heart of midfield and was a big reason for Monaco finishing 3rd. He has racked up 34 apps (22 out of 24 in league) in the ongoing 21/22 season signifying his importance and growth.

Having made 52 appearances for France at youth levels, he also got his senior team call up in August 2021 and has been ever-present since then, appearing 7 times in every available game. His monumental rise and obvious quality, even after having just turned 22 last month, have been turning heads this season, as many top clubs circle him for the upcoming summer window.

Profile Details

Name: Aurélien Tchouaméni
Position: CM, DM
Age: 22 (DOB: Jan 27, 2000)
Foot: Right (88% usage)
Height: 185 cm
Nationality: France

Strengths & Weaknesses

In our winter shortlist article, Bruno Guimaraes took the top spot since we weighted the score towards passing metrics and considered only 7 key stats. Interestingly, if I include a few more metrics like Progressive Pass distance, Dribbled Past, Dribble Success % and Miscontrols and then take an equal weight average of all the stats, this is the result:

Tchouameni looks really nice here. This is a good place to start to explain his strengths. Tchouameni’s biggest strength is that he’s very well-rounded. He’s the only one in the shortlist who clocks 60+ percentile on all 11 metrics. This is a midfielder who can do everything well, which is also why multiple reports of him assign different roles to his profile – deep playmaker, destroyer, anchorman etc. The truth is that he’s capable of pulling off most of these roles thanks to his well-roundedness and any team acquiring him at the age of 22 this summer can develop him into what they need at his peak. 

Let’s go further into his stats by looking at his Fbref pizza percentile chart for the 21/22 season:

It’s hard not to immediately notice Tchouameni’s defensive traits. He’s in the 90+ percentile range for most of them, showing him to be an adept ball-winner. As explained earlier, United probably don’t want a high-pressing ball-winner given Fred and Scott already offer that. Tchouameni’s profile suits the need. His pressures aren’t that high, but his interceptions, Pressure Success % and Dribbled past percentiles are excellent. That’s exactly what we want. It shows his great positioning and ability to sense danger without committing in a gung-ho manner. Tchouameni wins the ball a lot, but does so while prioritizing success and retention. His main weapon to that end is his immense physique. He bulldozes attackers into coughing up possession and isn’t shy to tackle them, but is so imposing and accurate with it, that he comes out with the ball most of the time. His reach is also excellent, often stretching or sprinting back to catch a dribbler and nab the ball off them in time, rarely getting beaten in midfield.

His massive aerial strength (thanks to height and agility) is another defensive pro. He often wins his aerial duels in both boxes. In possession too, Tchouameni is no joke, averaging 70+ percentiles on everything relevant. He is able to pass and carry under pressure and put his head up and pick some really good switches, through balls and diagonals. If Tchouameni does come to United he would take the deepest role that Scott McTominay currently occupies for us in Rangnick’s 4-3-3. Let’s compare them for this season to get an idea:

It’s pretty clear that in terms of passing & defending, Tchouameni offers a huge upgrade on Scott. It’s only carrying & shooting where Scott does better. Those are largely unimportant traits for the DM role and actually confirm how Scott’s strengths are also better utilized further ahead on the pitch. Tchouameni’s signing would probably allow Scott to compete with Fred for the B2B CM role once Pogba leaves.

On weaknesses, as ridiculous as it sounds, Tchouameni has none. At the very least, none for his role as a deep-lying defensive midfielder. He probably lacks the carrying, final 3rd creation and shooting to justify an advanced CM or B2B role. The only other “weakness” one can probably pick out is that he isn’t at 90+ percentiles on passing to be called an elite playmaker. In our CM shortlist, the reason players like Bruno Guimaraes and Maxime Lopez jumped ahead of him were due to their high metrics for progressive passing and pass % which Tchouameni couldn’t match. But that’s not to say Tchouameni doesn’t have room to improve on that. He’s already made a big jump from a season ago, when his passing metrics were only as good as McTominay and he seemed more like a ball winner (earning ‘next Kante’ shouts in France) but he’s really developed his passing and build up traits to be considered as a top team DM since then.

In summary, Tchouameni is probably the best U25 DM available in Europe if you want a balanced DM who is strong at defending and good at build up and progression. From the POV of what United want, it can’t get better than this. I’m cutting 1 mark just for the fact that he isn’t an elite level playmaker yet, but he can probably bridge that gap soon at the rate at which he’s going.

Technical Fitment: 9/10


Tactical Analysis

Let’s see how all of this translates to the pitch. This season, AS Monaco got off to a very troubled start with manager Niko Kovac employing a number of formations at the start of the season (3-4-2-1, 4–2-3-1, 4-4-2 and 4-3-3) to no good effect as the team struggled to find any rhythm or consistency. In all these formations, Tchouameni would be a regular and often start as the deepest midfielder. Kovac was eventually sacked after managing only 24 points and 6 wins in 17 league games. Since the arrival of Phillipe Clement in January, things have been more stable. The team has consistently played a 4-3-3 and managed 15 points and 4 wins in his 9 games at charge. Tchouameni has continued to be a regular feature at the base of the mid 3 with 2 of Volland, Jean Lucas and Fofana rotating in the CM slots ahead of him.

One thing our stats did not cover and is usually a big need for a DM, is the ability to show oneself during build up and progression. The DM needs to make himself available to the back line during the first phase and also constantly be in good positions to support wide players and midfielders in the next phase, so that the team can progress smoothly. This is something United have badly lacked. Scott is a very poor shower of himself often getting covered in the shadows of opponents and rarely being in good positions to demand the ball during build up. While Fred is better at making himself available, he lacks the ball control & strength to play out of pressure when facing his goal in DM areas.

Tchouameni is a master at this art as shown below:

We can immediately see his major pass reception is in the DM area or Zone 14 slot where he smartly moves to always be an outlet through the center during buildup. His rankings for the relevant metrics also show how important he is in receiving the ball for his team. The 2nd best zone of reception being further up the pitch on either side is a clear indicator of how he moves up with the team and offers himself on either side during second phase build up on the flanks as well. That is exactly what we need our DM to do. His involvement in the 3rd phase or attacking third progression is negligible, showcasing how he prefers to stay as a guard dog in the center to protect the team against transitions when they are up high – another attribute we sorely need.

We touched upon Tchouameni being a good passer and probably not an elite level playmaker. But with the likes of Jadon Sancho, Fred and Bruno Fernandes in the team, United already have enough chance creation and final ball material and just need a midfielder from deep to constantly find them in the attacking 3rd – and that’s exactly what Tchouameni does!

Tchouameni’s progressive map helps us understand 2 things:
1. The typical progressive pass he makes is exactly what we need – the mid 3rd to final 3rd ones. We have Maguire and Lindelof who are good at progressive passes from the defensive 3rd while Dalot, Telles and Shaw are adept at progression from deep wide areas. The only missing clog is completed with this kind of progressive map, from the center of the pitch to the wings, half-spaces and AM areas in the final 3rd.
2. His range of passing and uniformity across the pitch is perfectly balanced. He doesn’t have a favorite pass like a cross-ball diagonal to one side or a certain area of the pitch where the angle suits him. This is a player who can progress anywhere from the areas he operates in and that’s a very huge pro for a central DM in a mid 3 for a possession based team.

Defensively, Aurelian is an ever-present imposing figure in the middle of the park. His recoveries and interceptions highlight his amazing positioning. On the very few occasions he is far away from the ball, he makes it up with a display of acceleration and reach to get in a successful tackle. He rarely gets dribbled past thanks to a combination of awareness and physical dominance. Imagine Matic’s positioning combined with Fred’s ball-winning energy – that’s how Tchouameni feels like in defence.

Another noticeable trait is his aerial presence. Whether it’s clearances in his box or chances in the opposition box, he usually wins his aerial duels with strength and jumping ability. Among his 5 goals & 6 assists in the last 2 seasons, 3 goals and 2 assists have come from headers in set piece situations alone. This is another aspect United will benefit from.

Let’s look at some examples on the pitch to confirm what we have discussed so far:

In the 1st example, I highlight Tchouameni’s ability to receive when back to goal, turning to beat his man, giving himself a chance to look up and picking a great through ball that releases his winger behind the defence.

The example below is one where Aurelien is given a pass in a very bad situation. We have seen such incidents many times at United recently where a defender under pressure puts in a poor pass to the CM who is dropping deep, leading to a blame game on whose fault it really was. With DMs like Tchouameni, even poor passes are dealt with well. He receives this one on the edge of his D and is able to body-block the oncoming tackle, turn into the space behind, spot his teammate and release them on the break. 

In the 3rd example, Aurelien closes in on the man he’s marking, putting good pressure on his back as he is receiving. Again, the main highlight here is how Tchouameni doesn’t need to tackle or slide in (another bad habit of United players) and instead stays up and pressures the opponent with his physicality. Upon getting the ball, he has the awareness to turn into space and pick out his teammate to kickstart a move.
The final example is a simple one as Aurelien picks out the striker run with an inch-perfect through ball. The move led to the striker squaring it to his LW for a tap in.

Rounding off our tactical segment, it’s hard to pick any fault here. Tchouameni is what United exactly lack on the pitch – a DM in a mid 3 who helps in 1st and 2nd phase but stays back in 3rd phase to defend transitions, strong defensively without lunging into tackles, able to receive well in tight DM areas with good positioning & ball control, progressive enough to pick out anyone in the final 3rd with uniformity and a strong aerial presence in both boxes. This segment is a clean sweep.

Tactical Fitment: 10/10


Transfer Chances

Contract Start: Jan 29, 2020
Contract End: Jun 30, 2024
Weekly Wage: £19,000
Quoted Transfer Fee: £83m
Expected Transfer Fee: £60m-£70m

By now you must have realized that Aurelian is a wanted man. Last year, it could have been argued that he was still a wonderkid with a few gaps, but this season he has emerged as a well-rounded DM showing off his skills with excellence. His strong and consistent displays for Monaco and France have elevated his demand. Most top clubs know they are getting a guaranteed starter for many years, if they move for him this summer.

Chelsea, Manchester United, Arsenal, Real Madrid and Barcelona have all been strongly linked to the Frenchman. Barcelona’s financial issues and Arsenal and United’s doubtful Champions League status have apparently put Chelsea and Madrid in the lead, with Chelsea especially seemingly desperate to acquire either Aurelien or Declan Rice, given the age and fitness issues of Kante (30) and Jorginho (30).

In terms of transfer fee, Tchouameni’s contract runs out in 2024, which has made Monaco slap a £83m price tag on him for the coming summer. Even assuming that’s just a negotiation tactic, it seems hard for anyone to prize away the wanted man for anything less than £60m.

This segment is where United face the biggest issues. The recent draw to Watford has put a huge dent on our top 4 chances. Coupled with intense transfer competition, especially from Chelsea who have the need and the means, this might not be an easy deal for the Red Devils, further complicated by a new manager arrival.


Transfer Chances: 6/10


So, that rounds it up! Tchouameni is probably the most well-rounded DM in the U25 category that any top club can hope for. With the right mix of role and traits, he ranks very highly for technical and tactical fitment for Manchester United’s needs, but the intense transfer competition is a big roadblock for a team that has often struggled to beat top clubs to signings.

Technical Fitment: 9/10
Tactical Fitment: 10/10
Transfer Chances: 6/10
Overall Devil’s DNA Score: 8/10

Whom would you like to see covered next from our shortlist?

Bruno Guimarães – 8/10
Maxime Lopez
Ismaël Bennacer
Florian Grillitsch
Aurélien Tchouaméni – 8/10
Cheick Doucouré
Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa

(Notes:
1. All playing stats are from Fbref.com
2. All contract information is from Transfermarkt.com
3. All viz are made using Opta data
4. All images are from Getty Images
5. All screenshots from video footage of Ligue 1 and Monaco’s YouTube uploads
6. All mentioned data is accurate for the Feb 28th, 2022 to Mar 2nd, 2022 duration)

Opposition Analysis: Atletico Madrid 21/22

by | Feb 17, 2022

After the haywire UCL re-draw, Atletico Madrid were picked as Manchester United’s opponents for the upcoming Round of 16 Knockout game in the UEFA Champions League. In this article, we take a look at the Spanish giants’ 21/22 stats, strengths, weaknesses & playing style to understand what Man United can expect.

1. Overview

At the time of writing, Atletico are 5th in Laliga behind the likes of Betis & Sevilla. Even in their UCL group this season they were far behind Liverpool & barely managed to grab 2nd spot ahead of Porto & Milan. It hasn’t been a great campaign so far. But interestingly, their xGD per 90 puts them at 3rd in Laliga just behind the usual suspects, Real Madrid & Barcelona, which suggests that they aren’t doing as badly as it seems and some underperformance is at play.

Let’s dive into each aspect of their game now.

2. Formation & XI

Oblak
Trippier-Savic-Gimenez-Hermoso-Carrasco
Llorente-Koke-De Paul
Suarez-Correa

This is Atletico’s most played formation involving the players with most 90s. A 5-3-2 with Koke sitting deep & 2 CMs ahead of him is their standard setup. Koke is their most important player in buildup boasting 5th best xGBuildup in Laliga so far. Lot of their game in possession goes through him while the 2 CMs ahead of him (Lemar & De Paul usually) focus on open play chance creation.

Since the departure of Trippier, Simeone has reverted to a 4-4-2 in recent games. They lined up in that shape in their last 4 games at the time of writing. The principles remain largely the same. Marcos Llorente or Vrsaljko play as a RB and allow Carrasco to play further ahead as a winger. The 4-4-2 often takes the shape of 5-3-2 when Carrasco tracks back on the left, Llorente provides width on the right and Hermoso tucks in like a LCB, so in terms of build up and defensive structure, it remains the same largely.

A more classic Simeone 4-4-2 is also possible with Vrasljko and Lodi as fullbacks and Carrasco and Lemar as wingers, which is also a tactic that has been used once since the departure of Trippier.

3. Goal scoring
(All stats from here onwards are per 90 unless mentioned otherwise)

Goals: 1.74 (3rd in Laliga)
xG: 1.45 (5th)
Shots: 13.0 (3rd)
Shots on target: 4.4 (3rd)
NPxG/Shot: 0.11 (2nd)

Atletico have actually overperformed on their goal scoring. Griezmann (+2.6 G-xG) and Correa (+5.8) are overperforming in all competitions while Suarez’s differential is 0, scoring as expected. 2 of these 3 have lined up in a 5-3-2 & mostly delivered (10, 8 & 11 goals from Suarez, Griezmann & Correa respectively in all competitions). Marcus Cunha has chipped in with 6 goals but no one else has crossed 3 goals – only 17 more goals combined from 9 other players. Last year’s Llorente goals have completely dried up – he’s scored 0 so far. De Paul, Felix, Lemar are underperforming.


4. Chance creation

Chances created: 9.7 (5th)
xA: 1.0 (5th)

Atletico haven’t been really creative. De paul (27 key passes in Laliga), Carrasco (35 Key Passes), Lemar (29 Key Passes) are their main creators but none are in top 10 of Laliga (Leader Muniain has 57 Key Passes). For United, Bruno Fernandes already has 66 Key Passes in the League.

We dive deeper into the 3 main chance creator’s areas of creation in the below viz. These are the key passes for Carrasco, De Paul and Lemar in the league so far. As you can see, Carrasco is largely on dead balls, many of his key passes coming from corners and free kicks and a few from the LWB position when he cuts in and looks for the diagonal to the far post. Lemar and De Paul play the LCM and RCM positions respectively and their roles as chief creators in open play shows. Lemar is a bit more aggressive often dribbling up to the left half space and playing through balls, cutbacks and short crosses into the box while De Paul attempts more long range defence-splitting passes from a deeper right side position.

5. Defence

Goals Allowed: 1.1 (8th worst)
xGA: 0.9 (Best)
PSxG/Shot: 0.31 (3rd)

This is where the differential issue comes to light. The underlying numbers of Atletico’s defence are actually good. They concede the least xG & the 3rd lowest quality shots but are still shipping lots of goals. This immediately points to a goalkeeping issue. Let’s dig further.


6. Jab Oblak’s dip

PSxG Differential: -0.45 (2nd worst in Laliga)
Save %: 44% (Worst in Laliga and worst in top 5 leagues)

Shockingly, Oblak has been Laliga’s worst keeper so far and in serious contention for the worst goalkeeper in the top 5 leagues as well. For Atletico, he’s conceded 12 more goals than expected (33 conceded from 21 PSxG) in the league alone and has conceded all 5 penalties he’s faced. This is the worst shot-stopping form of his life and a stark dip from last season as seen below.

7. Pressing

PPDA: 11.6 (13th worst in Laliga)
Pressures: 129 (7th worst)
Pressure Success %: 32.3% (2nd best)

Another big change from previous Atletico sides is that they don’t press intensely or high anymore. If you had a decade-long perception that a typical Simeone side is all about intense pressing and defending, then that might have to change. This 21/22 Atletico sits back & stays organized to concede less. Their high pressure success % is proof of them being measured in the press and prioritizing turnovers while remaining compact.

8. Creation Style

Possession: 53% (8th)
Shot creating actions: 19.7 (5th)
Shot creating actions from dead ball: 2.2 (3rd)
Set piece xG: 10.3 (1st)
Crosses: 13.6 (7th)
Switches: 188.5 (3rd)
Through balls: 0.96 (4th)

Atletico rely more on switches, through balls & set pieces for creation. All signs point to a deep-sitting counter side that thrives more on transitions. But this doesn’t mean they don’t like to build up passing sequences. The team style comparison plot from theanalyst.com below will give us more clarity.

 

 

 

 Atletico still boast 5th most passes per sequence showing their on ball quality. They are right at the average for speed of attacks though, insisting they aren’t as slow and intricate as most of the top teams.

 

 Key takeaways for United:

Among the pros, United can take hope from the fact that this Atletico isn’t as intense & pressing as many sides that have troubled United in the league recently. Atletico aren’t really creative, are over-reliant on over-performing strikers and set pieces and their goalkeeper Oblak is in terrible form.

Among the cons, United have struggled to break down organized deep sides that ask United to be patient & creative and set up with the aim to hit United on the transition with direct balls, which is exactly what Atletico do. United’s transition defence will be tested once again as it has been recently versus Southampton and Burnley.

(Credit to fbref.com, Understat.com and theanalyst.com for all stats)

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