Search for a GK: Summer 2023 Shortlist

by | Feb 5, 2023

Fans and analysts who have followed United’s issues in the past few years and are also aware of the principles of play Ten Hag likes to implement, would have come across one concern immediately – David de Gea.

The Spanish goalkeeper has proven most of what any keen observer would have told you when Ten Hag was announced as Manchester United manager – De Gea is not fit for the Dutchman’s goalkeeper needs. The difficulties in build up is one key issue, while the inability to proactively sweep and claim crosses only further multiplies the adverse effect the Spaniard has on team tactics. After two games of seeing de Gea fumble, stay on his line, not attack crosses, hesitate to sweep and make mistakes in distribution, Ten Hag employed a kick-it-long system which bypassed the need to build up, and relied on his defence dropping deep to limit the cons of de Gea’s poor sweeping and claiming.

But in recent games, especially post the World Cup, the team has been slowly building towards a more high line high press game with focus on retaining the ball and de Gea has just not looked like a good cog in that system. The game against Arsenal was the most clear example, when both teams were implementing a similar 3-man high press, which meant a fullback was always free during build up. Ramsdale always nailed the cross ball to his fullback and helped Arsenal beat the United press, but on the other end, de Gea routinely failed to find his fullbacks and put them under pressure when he did.



There are many more examples of de Gea not being it, but I’m going to move past that and focus on today’s exercise – finding a starter level goalkeeper for Manchester United who suits Ten Hag’s tactics.

The Stats considered

Before diving into the process, let me explain the stats that have been considered and the logic to why they are good or bad for our assessment.

1) Save %
High=Good
Weightage: 10%

A high save % is good, since we want our goalkeeper to be able to make as many saves as he can, with respect to the shots he faces. A caveat here is that the save % for a keeper conceding too many shots usually drops, while it’s easier to maintain a higher save % when you face fewer shots. One example would be Illan Meslier, who faced the most shots in the league in 21/22, thanks to the chaos in defence before Marcelo Bielsa’s sacking.

2) PSxG Differential:
High=Good
Weightage: 25%

PSxG or Post-Shot Expected Goals is a measure of the quality of shots faced (xG faced by GK one can say). The difference of PSxG and Goals allowed is called PSxG differential or PSxG +/-. A high positive value for this denotes high quality saves. David de Gea is a prime example of (usually) scoring well on this stat, thanks to his dramatic saves from positions most keepers usually aren’t able to. I’m giving this the highest weightage, since it’s critical for a GK.

3) Cross Stop %:
High=Good
Weightage: 15%

This is calculated by dividing crosses stopped by crosses faced. A high value denotes good cross claiming ability. Again, the caveat here is that a keeper bombarded with crosses might find it tougher to maintain a high Cross Stop % compared to one that isn’t.

4) OPA or Defensive Actions outside Penalty Area: 

High=Good
Weightage: 10%

A measure of sweeping, a high value on this denotes the ability of the keeper to perform actions outside his area.

5) OPA Avg Distance:
High=Good
Weightage: 10%

The average distance from goal of all defensive actions outside the penalty area. Similar to the above stat, a higher value is good, for the keeper that we need.

6) Launched Passes Completion %:
High=Good
Weightage: 5%

When a keeper decides to launch a ball from open play, does he complete the pass accurately or is it a random boot-out under pressure that goes to an opposition? This stat answers that question. It separates purposeful long kicks to a teammate from random hoofs under pressure. One caveat here is that having a great target man could result in many ambitious long kicks getting a completion status as well. One example is Samir Handanovic topping this chart two years ago, thanks to Edin Dzeko being the target of most of his long passes.

7) Passes Attempted:
High=Good
Weightage: 5%

For the GK we are looking for, we want someone who isn’t afraid to get on the ball, during open play. A higher value for this is better for us.

8) Pass Launch %:
Low=Good
Weightage: 5%

This denotes the percentage of passes a keeper decides to launch, instead of playing on the ground. For our ideal keeper needs, we want a lower value for this – a keeper who has the technique, press-resistance  and composure to avoid booting the ball long and instead tries to find a player close by.

9) Pass Avg Length:
Low=Good
Weightage: 5%

Quite self-explanatory, the preference is for a keeper who has a lower average pass length, which indicates his priority to find a player closer via a shorter pass, rather than kicking it long.

10) Goal Kick Launch %:
Low=Good
Weightage: 5%

The goal kick version of ‘Pass Launch %’. Again, we want a keeper who executes a short pass from a goal kick more often than not, which is the ideal Ten Hag goal kick routine.

11) Goal Kick Avg Length:
Low=Good
Weightage: 5%

The goal kick version of ‘Pass Avg Length’. We want someone who has a low value on this.

NOTE: Before we move on, I must state one important caveat. A few of these stats are highly dependent on team tactics. A goalkeeper may not be playing short, because the manager has instructed him to kick it long (like ETH did with de Gea after the first 2 losses) or a GK may not be able to score well on sweeping actions, because his team doesn’t play a line high enough for him to get the opportunity to sweep. So, for the sake of clarity, it might be best to take the results of this ranking as to not reflect goalkeeper ability, but rather reflect goalkeeper suitability to United’s needs. In short, the score won’t measure absolute talent, but will identify goalkeepers who are doing well at the the role that we want this season. There could be other talented keepers who just aren’t playing enough or are being shackled by team tactics. With that clear, let’s move on.

The Ranking process

The rest of the process is largely mechanical. A quick run-down of the steps:

1. I downloaded all goalkeeping stats from fbref.com for Europe’s top 7 leagues for the 22/23 season and picked out the above 11 stats of interest to this assessment

2. I filtered out all goalkeepers who didn’t even manage to play 5 90s in 22/23. This left us with 160 goalkeepers, who make up the data set on which we will be doing further calculations

3. I converted the 11 stats into per 90 versions and then percentile versions. This means that each stat was divided by the number of 90s played by that goalkeeper, and then converted into a percentile stat. E.g. David de Gea with a 40 percentile on ‘PSxG Differential’ indicates that he’s better than 40% of the keepers in our data set for this particular stat. I’ve also accounted for the reversed percentiles on the stats for which a lower value is desirable. E.g. Low values of ‘Pass Avg Length’ were ranked with a higher percentile. In summary, all high percentiles now mean ‘better’, for this assessment

4. Finally, I created a weighted formula using these 11 stats using the above weights. I then factored in league difficulty using UEFA league coefficients for 22/23 giving it a 15% weightage. The last step was to create a percentile version of this weighted score, to ensure our top ranked goalkeeper scores a 100% and the worst one scores a 1%

The top goalkeepers, based on this, are as follows:

Manuel Neuer scores a majestic 100% on our metric, closely followed by Kepa, who’s having a resurgent season and Alisson, who still stands tall as Liverpool’s best player this year. This could be considered as a fair assessment of sweeper keeper performances in Europe’s top 7 leagues in 22/23 and Neuer is exactly the kind of keeper we need.

The Shortlist

The reason we’re here is to find a suitable young/peak keeper who is worthy of starting for United in the short and long term. I use age to filter out all goalkeepers above the age of 29 and add a few important contract details and transfer rumors. I also eliminated some GKs who barely crossed the 5 90s played threshold and some unrealistic options like Donnarumma, who surely won’t move from PSG.

The results are as follows:

Gregor Kobel has been having a great season at Dortmund for the second year running. Even last year, his stats were pretty good. United should really be enquiring if he’s available. There are no rumors of him wanting to leave or Dortmund entertaining such a thought, so maybe he’s well settled there.

There are similarly no rumors for Diouf and Vaessen in the market, but it might be wise to keep a track of them given their great stats while having a low profile.

The real targets who have been rumored to move and seem to be available for the right price are Bijlow, Raya, Costa and Meret. I’ll be doing mini reports on the first 3 below.

Mini Scout Reports

Before we dive into the reports of the targets, I want to highlight the holy grail – the profile that we are going for. Here’s Manuel Neuer’s pizza chart using the same 11 stats and assessment detailed above. Remember, the percentiles are adjusted based on what I mentioned (Eg. High percentile for Avg Pass Length means he’s passing short and so on)

What’s immediately noticeable is that Neuer scores well on almost every metric except cross stopping. He’s stopped only 4 crosses from 103 this year, which seems to be surprisingly low. But keeping that aside, it’s as good as it gets. Playing for a league leader team that maintains a high line and engages in short build up, does help the stats, of course, but Neuer has shown what a modern sweeper keeper is all about.

On the other end of the spectrum, let’s take a look at Manchester United’s current starter – David de Gea.

David de Gea scored 16.4% in the above exercise. Only 26 goalkeepers in Europe’s top 7 leagues scored lower than him and only 1 Premier League keeper (Mark Travers, Bournemouth’s backup GK) scored lower than him. It’s safe to say that de Gea is among the worst keepers in the league. What’s even more shocking is that, even keeping aside stats that might be dependent on team tactics, he’s below average for both shot-stopping metrics. He’s 33 percentile on PSxG +/-, which is apparently his strongest stat. The less said about the claiming, the better.

David de Gea is probably the weakest starting member in the United XI currently. Our aim should be to buy someone who represents a massive upgrade on de Gea in the short-term and has the potential to get close to that Neuer pizza chart in the long-term.

Let’s dive into the 3 targets that I recommend the most for this.

Justin Bijlow, 25, Feyenoord

Career History: Bijlow’s rise has been a fairytale one. Representing Feyenoord at all youth levels, he got his break at the end of the 17/18 season at the young age of 19. In the following season, he played a huge part, starting 20 times for the club. With 97 starts across 5 years since his debut, Bijlow is one of Feyenoord’s key players and has already become a household name in the Eredivisie. In 2021, he was called up to the national team by van Gaal and was doing well in World Cup qualification. An unfortunate injury that kept him out for the games in the run-up to the World Cup, ended up with him not being selected for the Finals in Qatar. 


Pros: Bijlow is a very well-rounded profile. His eye-catching and strong saves are immediately noticeable, while spending more time on his games gives a clear indication of a good distributor who likes to be involved, and a good claimer who is authoritative in the air. In general, the two words that come to mind when seeing Bijlow are – aggressive and athletic. He almost feels like an energetic midfielder, with the physical ability and determination in most of his actions being a large driver to his good stats.

Cons: The major con with Bijlow is – his fitness. He’s missed almost 50 games for Feyenoord over the years with various injuries related to foot, knee and toe. It cost him a World Cup Finals spot, and has left Feyenoord missing their key starter in important games as well. 22/23 has been good so far, with no injuries yet, and one can hope that his fitness improves in his peak. Also, his aggression leads to the odd error in passing or claiming, thanks to an overzealous or over-proactive action, but I would say that in the long run, it’s still much better than having a keeper who’s rooted to the line or scared of picking the right pass.

Verdict: I think Bijlow has everything in his locker for a modern GK, and at the age of 25, is already well-rounded and performing at a good level. These pros far outweigh the slight cons of fitness and rashness, both of which should be fixable as he matures. Should be a strong consideration.

Devil’s DNA Score 8/10

David Raya, 28, Brentford

Career History: Raya started out as a youth player for Blackburn Rovers and after a few years of bit-part appearances for the side, at the age of 21, he broke into the first XI and enjoyed 2 years as an undisputed starter for Rovers. His performances earned him a pick up from the smart scouting team at Brentford in 2019. It’s only been up and up since that move, with great performances in the Championship, only followed by great performances in the Premier League. In 2022, his rise earned him 2 caps to Spain ahead of De Gea and that change should probably happen at club level too.


Pros: At age 27, Raya is probably the closest to peak in terms of development, among our shortlist options. And that shows in his game. He is a very consistent shot-stopper, excellent cross claimer and strong sweeper. In terms of overall goalkeeping ability, he has no weakness. Even his distribution is a strong trait. The main reason why his pizza chart scores low on 4 distribution stats is largely due to Brentford adopting a long ball strategy this year. They often go direct to Ivan Toney in the final third thanks to the striker’s excellent hold up play (United should look to him for CF too). The 2 distribution stats which are more in his control score well. Back when he was in the Championship and Brentford dominated possession, Raya would play very short and often boss the build up. So, if you disregard the 4 stats he ranks low on, as issues that won’t matter in a top team playing a short build up style, Raya’s overall ability probably ends up being the best on the shortlist. 


Cons: It’s very hard to pick any cons for Raya. As explained before, his distribution is simply not a negative. He’s excellent at it. If I had to nitpick, the only con I could pick from watching a lot of Raya is that he sometimes tries too many ambitious counter-starters with low-percentage throws after claiming, which lead to the opponent getting the ball, but they also help start some great counters. It’s a minor thing.


Verdict: No matter how hard I look, I cannot see any reason why Raya shouldn’t be a top target. He has all the traits, is already showing them at a high level in the league and will only look better in a top team. His price also seems affordable since he has just 1.5 years left in his contract. At the rumored price, this is a no-brainer. If United don’t seal this, I’m positive that Spurs or Chelsea will pick Raya up this summer. For the first time since I’ve been doing scout reports for United, I’m giving someone a 10.

Devil’s DNA Score: 10/10

Diogo Costa, 23, Porto

Career History: Having just turned 23 last September, it’s fascinating to realize that Costa has already started 72 times for Porto in 2 years as a key starter and got 12 national call-ups for Portugal which includes starting every game in World Cup 2022. It speaks of his monumental talent as a player. 4 years with Porto B leading to 2 years at Porto and reaching the point of every top team wanting you, is as good a career goes till this age.


Pros: Aiming to be a well-rounded sweeper keeper, Costa is an excellent distributor and claimer and a decent shot-stopper. Standing tall at 6’4”, he has excellent aerial reach and the agility to go with it. He is really good at beating the opponent press by playing smart passes to the fullbacks or midfielders, effortlessly starting attacks for his team, no matter what the situation. He is also ever-ready to come off his line and sweep or claim with good control, without being too overzealous or too rooted on his line either. 


Cons: There are no obvious weaknesses to Costa, except the fact that due to his young age, he still feels raw. There is the odd mistake in him, especially when it comes to saving. His positioning might need some extra maturing to bump up his save %. He has also made some high profile errors in Champions League and World Cup games, which could suggest a slight requirement of nerves to handle big games.


Verdict: In terms of profile, Costa is a legitimate wonderkid who has all the traits, but his rawness means that he isn’t the most starter-ready on the list. The ideal top team move probably comes 1-2 years early for the young GK and with a huge Release Clause of £65m, does a summer 2023 move become a case of “too expensive for too raw a player”? I’m inclined to think so. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a fabulous talent and would still take him if there isn’t anyone in the top 5 shortlist names willing to come. But the price and rawness make me feel that there are a few, if not many, better options out there that would help us save some money for other targets like a striker or midfielder.

Devil’s DNA Score: 7/10


Final Thoughts

In summary of this exercise, for the summer transfer window of 2023, I feel Manchester United should pull out all the stops to sign David Raya from Brentford. He seems ready to move with an appealing price and his profile only suggests that he can become one of Europe’s best. If that doesn’t work out or someone else snaps him up, United should enquire about Gregor Kobel, who has also been having a fabulous 1.5 seasons at Dortmund. After those 2, a move for Justin Bijlow of Feyenoord has to be entertained, given the Dutch GK’s skillset and potential. As a final throw of the dice, an expensive move for Diogo Costa that seals the GK role for many years, is a good option as well. 

Thank you for reading this far. I hope you enjoyed this one. Let me know your thoughts on the options and if I’ve missed any, on my Twitter handle. I will be doing more scout reports in the near future, with a Casemiro partner playmaker carrier style midfielder next on my to-do list. Cheers.

(All stats from fbref via Opta)

Search for a CF: Short-term & Long-term Shortlists

by | Dec 30, 2022

The last time I did a CF shortlist exercise in the summer of 2022, the idea was to replace an aging Cristiano Ronaldo, who was missing from pre-season due to personal reasons. About 6 months later, after a walkout, a public interview against the manager and a contract termination, we are back in the same place. Only this time, it’s in a more precarious situation, bang in the middle of a season, right after a tiring World Cup, with everything to play for in the remainder of the season. Manchester United need a striker again, and the requirement is further complicated by objectives of the current season while keeping the future of the club in mind.

Well, it’s time to uncomplicate it. Today, I’ll take a look at data from Europe’s Top 7 leagues (One of the best things about Opta taking over fbref) to create, not one, but two shortlists: a short-term list focussing on targets for January that can do an immediate job and a long-term list of candidates who can carry the great burden of leading the line at Old trafford for the next decade. Let’s get into it.


Creating the Shortlist

I’ve done this a few times now in case you caught my previous CF, CM, RB or RW shortlist exercises. I’m going to keep this part short in the interest of spending more time on our shortlisted candidates.

These are the stats I used to create the weighted score:


NpxG – 10% weightage

NpxG/Shot – 10% weightage

Shots – 10% weightage

Shots on target % – 10% weightage

Pass Completion % – 10% weightage

xA – 10% weightage

Penalty area touches – 10% weightage

Miscontrols – 5% weightage

Dispossessed – 5% weightage

Progressive passes received – 10% weightage

Aerials won – 5% weightage

Aerial win % – 5% weightage

Explanation: Our first responsibility is to find a great goalscorer. ‘NpxG’, ‘Shots’, ‘Shots on target %’ and ‘NpxG/Shot’ together almost make up half the weighted score. This will ensure we get a top goal threat who can get into the box regularly, take shots created by playmakers like Bruno, Shaw and Eriksen and deliver high non-penalty output. We also want someone who moves well in the attacking third and receives a lot, which is why ‘Progressive passes received’ is a factor. ‘xA’ denotes our need for someone with a good final ball to also be able to play in the wingers or oncoming midfielders when possible. He should be able to keep possession losses to a minimum (this ensures a good level of close control and decision making which indirectly indicates good hold up play) which is why ‘Pass Completion %’, ‘Miscontrols’ and ‘Dispossessed’ have been taken. Finally, he needs to be decent aerially, since Ten Hag does like to use his CF as an aerial out-ball from time to time.

Now, onto the calculations.

1. I downloaded data from fbref for all outfield players in Europe

2. I converted all stats to per 90 versions and then possession-adjusted them to better reflect the stats assuming a 50% squad possession across the board

3. I filtered in players labeled as ‘FWD’, basically forwards

4. I filtered in players who have played at least 4 league 90s in 22/23 (I’ve kept this low mainly for the short-term list to uncover backup strikers who aren’t playing much but have done well in limited gametime)

5. I created percentiles within this dataset to order all relevant stats from 0 to 100 percentile

6. I used a weighted formula to create a score from the relevant stat percentiles to rank our desired profiles

7. Finally, in a new addition to my usual method, I give 25% weightage to UEFA league coefficients and 75% to the above weighted score to create a final score 

Here’s what we get:

Going by vibes as well, if someone said that Erling Haaland is the type of CF United need, then our formula is on the right track. Kylian Mbappe being 2nd confirms it. 

Next, I filtered out players who are impossible to sign (like Mbappe and Nunez) and those who don’t play CF regularly as per transfermarkt positions (like Fati and Gnabry). FYI Cody Gakpo got cut due to the second criteria because…..he’s not a CF! Anyways, not our problem anymore.

From the remaining list, I create two shortlists:

  1. Long term: Aged under 27 + Played at least 7 league 90s in 22/23
  2. Short term: Aged above 27 + Haven’t joined their club recently

Let’s take a look at the long-term list first along with some contract and rumored fee details:

Brian Brobbey leads the pack based on the ‘Final Score’. At the young age of 20, while having a strong link to Erik Ten Hag, the striker recently admitted that playing for Manchester United is a dream. The big issue is that he signed for Ajax only in summer 2022 and has a 5-year contract that makes him “not available” for a while, at least.

That takes us to the remaining targets, all of whom represent good options. Let’s run through some of them.

Long-term Option 1: Marcus Thuram

Recent History: Aged 25, Thuram has started as CF in Gladbach’s 4-2-3-1 tactic 17 times this season and has bagged an incredible 13 goals and 4 assists in this period. He has played a lot of LW in his career but has slowly been making the shift to CF. In the 3 seasons before this one, his playing time between LW and CF was almost split equally, but towards the end of last season, he began playing as a striker consistently and was rewarded with a World Cup 2022 call-up ahead of Anthony Martial.

Pros: Having played as a winger for most of his developing years, Thuram is a strong dribbler who not only attempts many dribbles, but is also very successful in beating his man. Last season, he was in the top 10 percentile both for dribbles attempted and dribble success in the Bundesliga. Even as a striker, this year he’s in the top 20 percentile for both. His off-the-ball movement is very strong, highlighted by his strong xG and shot numbers. He gets many shots away from good areas of the pitch thanks to either his strong dribbling or good movement to get behind the defence line, which is something United need. His best work comes as an outlet in transitions, which has proved very important for Untied in recent times and might continue to do so with Bruno and Rashford in the team. In that sense, Thuram fits right in.

Cons: He isn’t really a creative player. His lowest percentile among the metrics we used was for xA. His ability to play back-to-goal against settled low blocks is not poor, but not great either. In the Bundesliga, he is able to enjoy more moments in transition where he’s deadly in comparison to navigating against a rest defence with hold-up play and passing sense. He’s also average aerially and an okay-ish defender from the front.

Verdict: All in all, this probably doesn’t make him as ideal a CF target as our score initially predicted, but with his contract ending in June 2023 and Gladbach looking for a final opportunity to cash in, he could be available for as cheap as €20m this January or for free in the summer, which could pave the way for a more top-tier CF profile later or help with money for other key areas to invest in. In that sense, this probably ends up looking more like a good affordable rotation option with potential resale value, rather than a world-class line leading CF.

Devil’s DNA Score: 5/10

Long-term Option 2: Lois Openda

Recent History: Openda burst onto the scene with an impressive 21/22 campaign for Vitesse, where he bagged 24 goals and 5 assists in 44 appearances, only bested by Sebastian Haller for goals in the league. This prompted RC Lens to splash out €9.80m for his services. Playing the lone CF in Lens’ 3-4-3 this season, Openda has continued his form with 7 goals in 11 starts. His rise has been so remarkable, that the likes of Leicester and Milan have him on their radar for summer 2023.

Pros: He is an excellent dribbler. This helps him play on the wing too. Whether he is attacking centrally or from the sides, he effortlessly dribbles the ball around and gets it on his strong foot, before passing it to a teammate or taking a shot. He offers a lot of transition threat and rarely disappoints with his finishing ability. He is in the top 5 percentile for shots, shots on target and NPxG in Ligue 1, which highlights his ability in front of goal at just the age of 22. He wins a lot of set-pieces for the team since he gets fouled very often. The defenders usually can’t cope with his acceleration.

Cons: In terms of weaknesses, Openda likes to play on the ground and is weak in the air. There are question marks over his back-to-goal play as well. He also gets caught offside often, which shows a slight need of maturity in movement. He’s also not the safest passer in the world, often attempting ambitious passes to teammates which don’t always execute well, but this makes him a decent final ball player and is the main reason he has 9 assists in the last 1.5 years.

Verdict: Overall, Openda represents another reasonable <€50m option for the summer, with a much larger upside and potential, given he’s just 22. His speed, goal-scoring technique and ability to create shots for himself could reach world-class levels at his peak, but his poor aerial presence, hold up doubts and the need for maturity in his game are factors against him.

Devil’s DNA Score: 6/10

Long-term Option 3: Ivan Toney

Recent History: Toney did not make my summer CF shortlist, because of his deeper role last season behind Mbeumo. This season, Brentford are playing a 4-3-3 with Toney as CF and Mbeumo as RW, which has allowed Toney’s natural qualities as a line leader to shine. The result is 12 goals and 3 assists in 16 starts. He’s third in the league for goals and xG behind Erling Haaland and Harry Kane.

Pros: Toney’s best quality is his well-roundedness. He has the hold-up ability, back-to-goal play and aerial presence to play as a target man, the movement, speed and anticipation to play as a poacher and the passing range, progression and teamwork to play as a deeper support striker. It’s a special set and lets him be effective in many ways against different types of opposition. Erik Ten Hag might appreciate such a flexible attacker, and it’s not far-fetched to say that Toney is the most comparable young CF to Sebastian Haller in terms of profile. Toney has the highest aerial win % among our shortlisted players and the only reason he lost marks in the final score was due to low pass % and high miscontrols, both of which are a consequence of Brentford using him regularly as an out ball to get out of their half. In a better team like United, those will look better too.

Cons: Toney doesn’t have any real weakness. If anything, his only weakness is not being elite at any one quality. The major issue to signing him is the ongoing betting allegation against him. He has until January to respond, and could face a ban if found guilty. Even if he doesn’t, there is the issue of image, especially given the Greenwood incident last year. United and other teams might want to wait a bit for this to play out, before assessing a move in the summer. But if that becomes a non-point, at the age of 26, the well-rounded Toney could be a top class starting option for many years, without costing a bomb.

Devil’s DNA Score: 8/10

Long-term Option 4: Goncalo Ramos

Recent History: The 21-year-old Ramos was finding his footing last season with Benfica but since the departure of Darwin Nunez to Liverpool in summer 2022, having been thrust with sole line leading responsibility, Ramos has shone, bagging 10 goals and 1 assist in 13.3 90s played. His displays for Portugal after replacing Ronaldo as a starter showcased his quality as a box CF. Maybe United should follow suit.

Pros: Ramos is the quintessential box striker. His best work comes in the penalty box. It’s where he comes alive and his awareness, movement and finishing come to the fore. That said, having played multiple positions in his developmental phase, he has good traits for hold-up and back-to-goal play and is a good linker when he drops deep. He’s also probably the best defensive worker in our shortlist, willing to press intensely off the ball, which is something United badly need in their attack. His strong curving runs from wide and sharp movements between center-backs make him really tough to mark when he wants to get behind the defence line.

Cons: Ramos isn’t super well-rounded. He can’t be called creative and the further he gets from goal, the lesser of an impact he has. He prefers staying high up ahead and is comfortable in either direction, facing goal or back to goal. This fits well with United’s needs.

Verdict: The only issue with Ramos seems to be his high popularity and Benfica’s insistence on wanting his €120m release clause paid out or even topped. At that cost, United may be deterred, although if the price reduces, there probably isn’t a better box CF option that compliments what the team needs.

Devil’s DNA Score: 9/10

That covers some of the best long-term options for summer 2023. I have covered Tammy Abraham, Victor Osimhen and Lautaro Martinez in the summer 2022 CF shortlist article before. Some of the others like Patson Daka and Brian Brobbey have only recently moved to their clubs and might be tough to pry. 

Let’s move on the short-term list. These are a lot more tricky to pick out. It’s tough to understand which players will be available on a budget fee or loan in January 2023. I’ve picked the players who are aged 27+ and scored the best ones from the list and put down their details. Here’s the result:

Next, I pick 3 players to highlight, who have either been linked to Manchester United recently or have been among the market rumors and could move. The others might just not move in the middle of the season. 

Short–term Option 1: Wissam Ben Yedder

Recent History: Since moving to Monaco in 2019, Ben Yedder has scored 81 goals and made 21 assists in just 109 90s. It’s almost a goal-contribuion-a-game rate. Last season, his 25 league goals were only eclipsed by Kylian Mbappe, and he was the league leader for goals per 90. This year, he has played in a front 2 with Breel Embolo and let the Swiss take up more poaching duties, resulting in a deeper role for Ben Yedder.

Profile: The deeper role is the reason Wissam’s pizza chart showcases a player who has taken shots from distance, not attempted many aerials and shown good stats for progression. It speaks of his well-rounded skillset after many years of experience. Yet, even after not playing as a poacher, Ben Yedder has bagged 10 goals and 2 assists in 14 90s. Ben Yedder has both the poaching skills and the passing and carrying traits to play back-to-goal, progress from deep and be a finisher inside the box.

His only weaknesses are aerial presence and defending from the front. He has never been a good presser and at this declining part of his career, it shouldn’t be expected. 

Verdict: Ben Yedder has been linked to a final hoorah back at Sevilla and Monaco seem open to selling him before his contract ends in 2024. An experienced and well-rounded European heavyweight, Ben Yedder could be a great short-term option for United until they figure out the sale of the club, set up a new structure and target a long-term option.

Devil’s DNA Score: 8/10

Short–term Option 2: Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting

Recent History: With 29 goals in 29 90s for Bayern Munich across 2.5 years, Eric Maxim Choup-Moting has been on fire for the Bavarians. Since Lewandowski’s departure, he has gotten a bit more gametime than before, and his output hasn’t reduced a bit, with 11 goals and 3 assists in just 9 starts in 22/23.

Profile: Eric can be described as a safe poacher. He is great at box movement and gets into really good poaching positions. He’s not a very aggressive shot-taker and is average in the air, but his technique is good enough to control the ball well and be secure and progressive in his passing. He rarely gets dispossessed and is able to keep things ticking in a safe manner while offering constant goal threat and efficient finishing.

Verdict: With 6 months left on his contract, things are getting intense for Choup-Moting’s signature. He is the one linked most strongly to United among the short-term options, but Bayern want to renew and keep him, especially with Sadio Mane injured for a while. If United do get Eric this winter, it could be a great boost to their top 4 chances.

Devil’s DNA Score: 8/10

Short–term Option 3: Niclas Füllkrug

Recent History: At 29, Fullkrug is among the younger options in the short-term list. After his move to Bremen in 2019, it took 2 seasons to settle, with him being unable to displace Josh Sargent as starter. Last season, after the departure of Sargent, Fullkrug got his chance to prove himself and responded with 19 goals and 6 assists in 28 starts. He has started this season in similar fashion, with 10 goals and 3 assists in 16 starts, his form earning him a World Cup 2022 ticket, where he also made a big impression when Germany called upon him.

Profile: Fullkrug is an interesting profile. He is very strong aerially, generates a lot of shots, but is yet able to pass and progress well. A target man with good technique is a good way to sum him up – similar to Wout Weghorst. He has the skills to hold up and play back-to-goal, while being an out ball target. He also has good, even if not elite, movement in the box. His passing is underrated, with him having the presence to pick out good passes. He’s just not someone pacey or quick.

Verdict: As per rumours, Werder Bremen are looking to cash in on the striker to ease their financial woes. Even a fee of  €20m could convince them. At that price, United can obtain a strong but gifted target man whom the likes of Bruno can aim at.

Devil’s DNA Score: 8/10

And that’s a wrap. Apologies for the long-ish article, but I wanted to cover the mini reports in good enough detail as well. Let me know your thoughts on Twitter.

(Player data: Opta via fbref.com, Market data: transfermarkt.com)

Predicting Ten Hag’s Next Tactical Setup

by | Sep 12, 2022

In my previous article here, I explained the tactic Erik Ten Hag has relied on after a disastrous start to his Manchester United career – a gameplan that has got United 4 wins in 4. But, that came at the cost of sacrificing many principles of play that make Ten Hag who he is and have the potential to make United a title-winning team. In all 4 games, United bypassed build up to go long, conceded possession and invited 50-50s and entries into their penalty box, with the hope of defending intensely and hitting their opponents on the break. It has worked, but the long-term sustainability of such a tactica doesn’t seem promising.

In this article, I’m going to go a step ahead and wear my problem-solving hat. I will take a swipe at predicting the gameplan and XI that Ten Hag will move towards at some point in the near future and give some reasons for it.

The playing XI that United need

I’m straight up just going to post my predicted XI and then explain the logic. 

The Defence:

As before, it all starts at the back. Martin Dubravka isn’t the best goalkeeper in the world – far from it. But his best trait just so happens to be – distribution. This is probably Ten Hag’s biggest demand from his keeper and the major requirement to pull off a short build up tactic. It’s also something De Gea is dreadful at. A temporary relief until Dean Henderson or a new goalkeeper takes over in the summer of 2023, Dubravka, at the very least, can help Ten Hag start playing out from the back in a measured and controlled manner, instead of booting the ball away aimlessly, like De Gea currently does.

As explained in the previous article, Harry Maguire and Luke Shaw are weak when it comes to defending transitions, but if their team bosses most of the possession and focuses on short build up and progression from the back, their technical attributes are big pros to have in the team. I’m still skeptical about Maguire turning it around and making it back to the Premier League XI, especially at RCB, where he isn’t as effective as LCB. The cameo against Arsenal highlighted his low confidence, while his performance against Sociedad, although positive, didn’t see enough progression (ony 2 progressive passes), which has been a recurring theme since his switch to the right side. Which is why, Victor Lindelof, who in my opinion came out of a wretched 21/22 as one of the few who could hold his head high, could also make it at RCB. If progression is a need from the center-backs, as it has been for all staple Ten Hag teams, Varane isn’t well suited. The RCB issue also has the potential for needing a whole new center-back once again, if none of these 3 options are deemed worthy by Ten Hag within a year. A return for Jurrien Timber or a similar progressive RCB isn’t out of the question, given the importance of playing out the back for Erik Ten Hag’s ideal approach.

The Midfield:

Coming back to the predicted XI, the midfield puzzle is a lot more complicated. Eriksen’s importance to build-up play has become vital. There’s a reason Ten Hag is starting him in every game and not taking Eriksen off, until it is impossible not to do so. Eriksen is the only midfielder technically good enough to drop deep, receive and progress well. We saw against Brentford, that even when it comes to build up, Eriksen can go wrong, while the Dane’s defensive struggles have also been apparent, like against Arsenal. But nevertheless, he’s what we have in the name of a build up midfielder, so our reliance on him looks set to continue until we sign a proper deep-lying playmaker. This was why the summer 2022 window chase for Frenkie De Jong was vital.

Casemiro’s presence doesn’t solve the build up issue, but it gives the team a high amount of defensive security in transitions. This could also be another reason why Maguire and Shaw might be able to breathe easier compared to the leaky Fred-McTominay pivot. I predict the midfield to line up in a DM triangle with Casemiro at the base. During build up, Eriksen and Casemiro might drop on either side to take care of progression, while Bruno stays ahead. As the ball progresses up the pitch, Eriksen moves ahead and Casemiro drops back to a central anchorman role, to be ready for the defensive transitions if and when the team loses the ball up the pitch.

This movement is something Casemiro would be very familiar with, having done the exact same on many occasions with Toni Kroos and Luka Modric in the last few years at Real Madrid. Another reference to this movement is the De Jong-Schone pivot from Tan Hag’s 17/18 Ajax team where De Jong would drop for build up with Schone staying ahead, and the pair exchanging positions as the ball progressed up the midfield. The game against Sociedad saw a glimpse of this system for 45 minutes when Eriksen and Casemiro were on the pitch. The pair dropping deep during build up might make one call the shape a 4-2-3-1 as well, but formation notations are usually based on the shape in which a team defends in and considering Casemiro might slot as a central DM during defence, a 4-3-3 is the name being given here.

The Attack:

The last piece involves Anthony Martial. This one is a lot more flexible since Rashford is in good form and neither player really screams ‘Ten Hag CF’ anyway. But if a more possession-centric approach that requires hold-up, intricate passing and secure carrying from the CF is the aim, then Martial is probably a better bet than Rashford or Ronaldo. A lot depends on fitness and form, though. Antony’s wide outlet role and Sancho’s playmaking strengths when narrow, could work well in tandem, as long as the front 4 also focus on making constant runs into space, which is a gap the team has as a whole and could dictate the need to involve Rashford and Elanga a lot.



The tactic does have some gaps. The clearest 3 are GK, DLP and CF. Dubravka, Eriksen and Martial are temporary placeholders for 3 roles that each need a much better player. In the worst case scenario, even RCB could be an issue, if Maguire doesn’t recover form and Lindelof and Varane aren’t deemed good enough for the progression needs. 

Summary

When might Ten Hag go for this change in tactic? It’s hard to predict. We’ve already seen some elements of play being trialed for one half vs Real Sociedad. It could be kept as a cup tactic, until the confidence to switch to the same in the Premier League is built. Ten Hag could utilize the current break or the upcoming international break in September or maybe even the World Cup in the winter, to get some time to train for it. It’s also entirely possible that he simply waits until he gets the ideal components for the system. As mentioned, at least 3 roles in the 4-3-3 are forcefits in terms of profile or quality. It’s very possible that he would want a few of them to be addressed in the winter window or summer 2023, before moving towards this setup.

In either case, the current setup, as amazing as its productivity has been, doesn’t feel like the long-term tactic Ten Hag envisioned when he took over the club. The philosophy sacrifices being made for the current results will be eating him up in some corner of his brain. It’s not the approach he had in mind when he made comments about the end of Liverpool and Manchester City’s eras. I feel Ten Hag will move towards a more high-line, short build-up and progressive setup in the near future. When that future is, entirely depends on how the players react to both tactics and how Ten Hag is supported in the market.

Erik Ten Hag’s Successful Turnaround 

by | Sep 8, 2022

After a rude invitation to Premier League football in his first 2 games in charge versus Brighton and Brentford, Erik Ten Hag has steadied the ship at Manchester United. With 4 wins in 4, including emphatic victories against Champions League spot rivals Liverpool and Arsenal, Ten Hag seems to have brought back confidence, intensity and hope to his players and the fans as well. But, it has to be said, that this has come at the cost of sacrificing some principles of play that Ten Hag strongly believes in. This is not his ideal gameplay, and definitely not something he will be looking to repeat the next time the side meets the same teams half-a-year down the line.

In this article, I’ll first explain the current gameplan that Ten hag has used to steady the ship and why he has chosen certain players above others and then go into the long-term limitations of the tactic.

The current gameplan’s pros

Let’s first look at the formation being used in the last few games. There have been no major changes to this lineup in the 4 victories.

Antony started the previous game against Arsenal, and it’s a good assumption that he’s going to be started at RW from now on, given how clearly Ten Hag mentioned about the balance Antony provides to the attack as a wide outlet on the right was important to the team. Also, goes to show how another manager believes that Sancho’s best role is on the left, something we’ve been banging on for more than a year now.

Anyways, to understand the current gamepan, like all good football tactical breakdowns, we start at the back. I had posted the the same tweet on our handle a while ago, and this is a good starting point:

% of passes launched by David De Gea

GW1 – BRI (H) – 23%
GW2 – BRE (A) – 38%
GW3 – LIV (H) – 94%
GW4 – SOU (A) – 45%
GW5 – LEI (A) – 68%
GW6 – ARS (H) – 82%

After the debacle of the first 2 games, Ten Hag has instructed de Gea to go long instead of attempting short build up. This is probably the biggest sacrifice Ten hag is making on his usual gameplay ideals, and everything else largely flows from here. As a result of going long on most occasions, the whole team bypasses the build up phase, which is currently a weak area for United, and engages in 50-50s higher up the pitch. The idea is to win the first ball or second ball and then force transitions quickly to catch the opponent defense line off-guard. Out of possession, the idea is to drop deeper and engage in a lot of reactive or last-ditch defending, with a heavy focus on intense pressing in the middle and defensive areas instead of higher up the pitch, where United doesn’t have good high pressers.

It’s a gameplan that suits United’s current players and a lot of the team selections make sense based on this understanding. Raphael Varane is one example. After the dropping of Harry Maguire, Varane has come in and done well. That’s largely because he is very suitable for the type of last-ditch intense defending that the current gameplan requires. If dropping deep and heading away crosses or putting pressure on strikers to dribble past is the only requirement, Varane is good. But it has to be noted that Varane totals just 4 progressive passes in the 4 games he’s played – an average of 1 progressive pass per game. This weakness has been masked thanks to the choice of ignoring short build up. If build up and a high line possession game are not the requirements, then Harry Maguire’s importance reduces and Varane’s increases. It’s a smart reading of both player’s strengths from Ten hag.

The same logic extends to Tyrel Malacia over Luke Shaw. Shaw was key to progression from the back under Ole gunnar Solskjaer and regularly topped the progression and chance creation charts in the last 3 years. But his defending, especially in the sense of intensity, has always been a question mark. Too often, he lets opponents dribble past or run past easily. This is where Malcia is strong. While he doesn’t have the technical skills of Shaw, he’s a very intense player who makes it hard for his man to get past. He’s also really good at pressing opponents in midfield areas once he inverts there. In fact, Malacia averages 13.3 pressures per 90, which is the second highest in the squad after Scott McTominay for all players who have played at least 3 90s. 

Without explaining much, the same logic also holds good for Scott McTominay. If winning second balls and making a nuisance of yourself is the goal, Scott is a very good option. He’s been instrumental in breaking play both on the ground and in the air (the latter being one big reason he is starting over Fred) and laying it off to a more technical partner in Eriksen or Dalot or Bruno. Rashford is another one who thrives off a transition-based steal-and-run system where his off-the-ball pros are maximized and his hold-up and creative cons are minimized.

In summary, most of Ten Hag’s current selections center around good defending, intensity and effort, which other than a tactical gain, also promote a few mental directines like ‘never giving up’, ‘outrunning the opponent’, ‘fighting for every ball’ etc. It has worked well, but it has its limitations long-term.

The limitations of this approach

United have been ceding a lot of possession with this gameplan. 

BRI (H) – 63%
BRE (A) – 67%
LIV (H) – 30%
SOU (A) – 51%
LEI (A) – 47%
ARS (H) – 40%

The possession drop from the first 2 games is clear. While possession isn’t everything in football, it is a measure of control over the game. Ten Hag would ideally want his team to have more of the ball. The short build up would ensure United build attacks on their terms, move up the pitch in the pace they want without fear of conceding a counter, and have the authority to position players where they need to defend when the opponent does steal the ball, hopefully in a higher part of the pitch farthest from goal. If United’s opponents sit back in a more disciplined manner to not allow spaces for the forced transitions to work, then it might become easy for them to defend and hit the Red Devils on the break. We must also remember that 2 of these wins have come against big teams against whom such an approach usually works well (Did someone say Ole ball? No? Okay).

No matter how good the back 4 and Scott McTominay are at ball-winning, there is a risk in dealing with counters and 50-50 situations. We saw Eriksen getting mugged by Arsenal in a goal that was disallowed recently, while Maddison and Barnes did have some inroads around the midfield pivot in the Leicester game. Malacia and Eriksen struggled to deal with Saka’s threat on their side in the last game. On a different day, these are moments that could have led to troublesome situations. 

So far, the intensity and freshness of playing under a new manager and the good start of the new signings Lisandro Martinez, Christian Eriksen, Tyrell Malacia and Antony, has kept the playing tempo good and ensured we are winning more second balls than not. But this can’t be the long-term vision. The worst-case scenario of such a gameplay would be defenders losing form and confidence if they concede too many transitions – an effect we have already seen on Harry Maguire last season. Being a defender in a team where the attackers don’t press and midfielders aren’t great at shielding is a nightmare. Ten Hag’s structures in pressing and defending are ensuring the pressure on the defenders isn’t as bad as last season. But it’s all hanging by a thread. United have already allowed 64 passes and 16 crosses into the penalty area so far, both of which are the 4th highest in the Premier League. We are allowing a lot of inroads into our penalty box and are hanging on thanks to the last-ditch defending of the current back 4. It’s not a sustainable approach to defend, especially for a team that’s aiming for trophies.

The ideal gameplay is to control the game enough to not have to face transitions and build play and progress in a way that is able to break down all kinds of defences. Defence and attack have to work in unison. The way the team keeps the ball and progresses to retain it as high up the pitch as possible is also the way in which they defend, once they lose the ball as far from their own goal as possible, and make it tough for opponents to traverse that space and enter their area. That is the ideal tactical heaven Ten Hag will aspire to reach soon, and the current gameplan is far from it.

Summary

I don’t want to seem like a person who brings up issues without solutions, especially when the team is actually going through a good phase. In a follow up article to this, I will explain the tactic I feel Ten hag will move towards and the personnel changes and transfer requirements that will follow as a result of it. Who knows? We might even see that change tonight against Real Sociedad.

For now, Ten Hag needs to be credited for this inspiring comeback after 2 disastrous games. He has turned things around, got points on the board and got the players and fans buzzing for more. But somewhere in his mind, and possibly the training pitch, he must already be planning for a tactic that is more front-foot, progressive, proactive and suitable to get Manchester United to being a top club competing for titles. 

Joelinton 2.0: Rebirth under Eddie Howe

by | Aug 24, 2022

Let’s roll back a few years into 2019, the pre-pandemic year where everything was just perfect. Newcastle, at that time, were struggling for PL status having been relegated in the recent past only for Rafa Benitez to bring them back up and arguably overachieve with the resources at hand and keep the Toon afloat in the PL. It was not a secret that Newcastle fans were fed up with Mike Ashley and his ‘lack of ambition’. So, when Steve Bruce replaced the club favourite, Rafa Benitez, there was already a heavy backlash that followed. Newcastle needed to win the fans over and the way the owners responded was by splashing a club record fee of £40m on Joelinton from Hoffenheim.

Steve Bruce initially signed the Brazilian with the intention of playing him as a striker. Indeed, that was his actual position if you look at the season he had at Hoffenheim scoring 7 goals and contributing 5 assists. Not exactly great, but Newcastle were struggling a bit during that time so it was still a good signing all things considered. 

So, 5-4-1, Joelinton as the lone target man, low blocks, Saint-Maximin and Almiron running down the wings, the plan was perfectly clear. It cannot get more Steve Bruce than this if you tried. The only problem was that Joelinton struggled to play as a target man. He just could not score enough goals and contrary to what Liverpool fans would tell you in 2020, a striker’s job IS to score goals. Especially if you are a club’s record signing and one of the few goalscoring threats in the squad. 

This trend continued, Joelinton never really got firing playing as the striker. Managing to score a grand total of 2 goals in 2019/20. So much so that Newcastle had to sign another striker in Callum Wilson to compensate for their lack of goal threat. Joelinton then got shifted out wide after the arrival of Callum Wilson in 2020. But, the Brazilian’s fortunes did not change and he would still struggle to find the net on a consistent basis. And that would be a constant feature under the leadership of Steve Bruce. 

Now, we all know what happened at Newcastle United last year with the *slightly* controversial takeover. Steve Bruce was sacked and Eddie Howe was appointed as his replacement in November 2021. Joelinton was always ever present in the starting lineup under Howe but what happened during the match against Norwich on 1st December changed the course of history. Ciaran Clark was sent off in the 9th minute and Howe had to shift Joelinton from the wide forward position to the midfield and seeing his performance was equivalent to discovering fire for the English manager. That was the start of a remarkable, unlikely and highly unorthodox role and position change. And the rest, as they say, is history. 

So, how has the Brazilian managed this highly improbable transition from being a striker to essentially into a ball-winning midfielder? We’ll have a look. 

Joelinton, the midfielder

The credit for Joelinton’s redemption arc somewhat goes to Ciaran Clark. No red card in that game, no Joelinton in midfield, blah blah blah, you get the idea. In fact, he was so successful as a midfielder that he managed to keep Newcastle’s star signing in January, Bruno Guimaraes, out of the starting lineup for the first weeks. Joelinton started lining up in a 3 man midfield alongside Jonjo Shelvey and Joe Willock, also known as Jonjo-JoeJoe. Eventually, Bruno came into the lineup replacing either Willock or Shelvey while Joelinton became a midfield mainstay, a fantastic turnaround from once being dubbed as the worst signing in PL history. 

If we take a look at his numbers, we can actually see that the 26-year-old Brazilian always had a bit of a midfielder inside him all along. His attacking numbers are not great. Pretty poor in fact for someone who is a striker. However, his defensive numbers were incredible for an attacker. 

As you can see, he ranks in the 22nd percentile for goals scored by forwards in Europe. Not only that, all the rest of his stats are subpar for someone who was brought in as a striker. However, you look at the defensive side of his game and it’s a whole different story altogether. He is among the best in Europe in terms of the defensive side of forwards. 

If we roll the days back to his time in the Bundesliga, we can get a clearer picture of just the type of player that Joelinton was under Julian Nagalsmann at Hoffenheim. Joelinton usually lined up as the deep-lying forward in a 2 man strike force. Nagalsmann always appreciated Joelinton’s physicality, tenacity and work rate. So, Joelinton’s traits have not changed at all. 

“He has a tactical understanding and the technical capabilities,” Howe said. “He’s been brilliant defensively. His work rate and the amount of ground he covers is incredible. He’s a real team player.”

Joelinton has always had the underlying numbers for a deeper lying forward ever since his days at Hoffenheim. His defensive side of the game for a forward has always been among the best in Europe. However, his transition from a deep-lying forward to a ball-winning midfielder is pretty incredible. Prior to Howe, Joelinton had never started any match as the no.8 for Newcastle. And, the Brazilian had started only one match in the midfield in his whole career spanning 223 appearances, for Rapid Wien vs Austria Vienna. He was sent off in that match in the 67th minute. 

Another thing to notice from the pizza chart of his Hoffenheim days is that his passing and possession numbers are also good. Of course, as always, Joelinton the forward has never had good goal scoring numbers. But, his overall game is vastly different from his numbers at Newcastle. It depends on a lot of factors, his role, Hoffenheim’s system, the league’s susceptibility of leaving open spaces, but this does prove that Joelinton is able to progress and pass the ball as well. So, he is specifically being used as a ball-winning midfielder by Eddie Howe. It probably might be the weirdest position and role change of all time. From a target man to a ball winning midfielder. That’s equivalent to Didier Deschamps asking Karim Benzema to do Kante’s job. Although, I wouldn’t put it past the French manager.

This viz confirms our previous analysis. Joelinton is among the very best in terms of defensive actions. But, just having good defensive numbers doesn’t automatically mean that you are a good midfielder. Joelinton’s other attributes such as his tactical understanding and other traits such as his work rate, tenacity and determination which made him a good defensive forward are what helped him in this transition. The Brazilian has also partnered with a data analysis firm from Brazil to help improve fast track his transition into a midfielder. All this, coupled with Howe’s excellent coaching and Newcastle’s system has helped Joelinton transform into a midfielder, and he’s currently thriving in that role. 

The Brazilian forward-turned-midfielder now regularly forms a duo with his compatriot Bruno Guimaraes in the midfield for the Magpies. The Brazilian duo have formed a formidable partnership in the middle of the park with Joelinton offering bags of energy and winning the ball back while Bruno offers the calm and composure of a traditional deep-lying playmaker. Both of them complement each other well and have been crucial in the upturn of Newcastle United. Only Manchester City, Liverpool and Tottenham have earned more points than Newcastle since Howe was appointed as the manager. Howe has struck a good balance between his attacking and defensive structure at Newcastle as he prepares to transition a team designed around being the ultimate underdog into his philosophy and ideas. Newcastle’s midfield isn’t as easily getting bypassed as it was being done previously and they have improved tenfolds in attack as well. There is still a long way to go before Newcastle go where everyone expects them to go but Howe has proven his worth as the right man for this job. And decisions such as Joelinton’s position change only helps his case.

The credit, along with Howe, goes to Joelinton for studying and adapting his game to suit his new role. It is one thing for a coach to identify a role for a player, it is totally different for a player to perform well in that role. So much so, that any plans that Newcastle may have had at signing another midfielder to support Bruno Guimaraes must have been totally scrapped off with the way Joelinton’s been playing. 

The Brazilian ‘midfielder’ is the prime example of how scouting should be done. The underlying numbers were always there of his ability to play in the midfield. Joelinton was largely misprofiled by Steve Bruce where he used him as a lone forward whereas his strengths always lay in playing a deeper role. Credit to Eddie Howe for recognising the 26-year-old’s best position, and credit to Joelinton for adapting to his new role like a duck to water. The Newcastle fans used to hound Joelinton earlier. Now, they couldn’t possibly love him more. 

21/22 Striker Role Ranking System

by | Aug 21, 2022

My previous article segregated all top 5 league midfielders into 5 playing styles and used their stats from 21/22 to rank them on each role. You can find the full methodology here and the tweet with the request line for the role rank charts here. The response to that was very positive, which is why I have decided to extend the same exercise for strikers using 21/22 data.

The choice for picking strikers as the next position to analyze was down to 2 things. One, people love strikers. It’s always been the case. They get the headlines, they score the goals and garner the attention of audiences more. Secondly, and more to do with my intent, strikers are the one position after central midfielders, that offer a vast amount of tactical variation. Teams use their last line attackers in various ways, offering the chance for a 5-way role segregation just like midfielders. Without further ado, let’s dive into it.


The Roles

I’ll spend more time explaining the striker roles, since they are key to the results. The 5 roles I’ve decided to classify center-forwards into are:

Target Man
Poacher
Deep-lying Creator
Explosive Dribber
Defensive Forward

Once again, the Football Manager influence is clear. Why reinvent the wheel? 

An explanation of each role:

1. Target Man: The out-ball of the team – someone with aerial presence who can score, assist or hold up, when direct balls are purposefully launched at him by his teammates. The high weightage stats taken for this role were Aerials won, Aerial win %, Pass Targets, etc. Some examples of players who excelled in this role last season are Zlatan Ibrahimović, Christian Benteke and Chris Wood.

2. Poacher: The finisher – the one who plays off the shoulder of the last opponent defender, continuously looking at running behind, finishing from as close to the goal as possible and offering constant penalty box threat to push defences behind. The focus stats here are NPxG, NPxG/Shot, Penalty area touches, etc. Some examples from 21/22 are Erling Haaland, Patrick Schick, and Ciro Immobile.

3. Deep-lying Creator: A striker acting as a creator for others. Whether as a deep-lying forward or false nine or wide forward, this player has a sense of assisting and helping others score, in addition to scoring himself. Some key stats taken for this were xA, Passes into penalty area, Shot-creating actions etc. Players who played this role well last season were Alassane Plea, Thomas Muller, and Max Kruse.

4. Explosive Dribbler: A forward who loves taking on defenders – whether it’s by drifting wide to isolate and dribble past defenders, or by dropping deep into midfield to drive towards the goal. High weightage stats for this were Dribbles, Players dribbled past, Shots created from dribbles etc. Players who topped this role in 21/22 were Kylian Mbappe, Rafael Leao and Emmanuel Dennis.

5. Defensive Forward: It might sound like an oxymoron, but modern football has found a place for an attacker who begins the team’s defense from the front, by pressing and ball-winning high up the pitch. Key stats for this included Pressures, Attacking 3rd tackles, Pressure Success %, etc. Some of the examples from 21/22 for this type are Amine Adli, Roberto Firmino, and Mark Uth.

The Ranking

Well, that was all the theory. The rest is pretty much manual work.

Step 1: I downloaded stats of all outfield players from fbref.com

Step 2: I segregated ‘Center Forwards’ and ‘Support Strikers’ from this list using Transfermarkt filters.

Step 3: I cut off all players who haven’t played at least 10 league 90s. 220 players made the cut and this becomes the roster we will do all our calculations on.

Step 4: I create possession-adjusted and per 90 versions of each stat so that we can bring all the stats to a comparable level playing field

Step 4: I converted each stat into a percentile version within this data set. Eg. The Striker with the highest ‘possession-adjusted per 90 xA’ gets 100 percentile for ‘xA’ and so on. One caveat here is that I am comparing strikers across leagues for this exercise. So someone with a 90 percentile is better than 90% of Europe’s top 5 league strikers on that stat (i.e. Only 22 strikers performed better than him for that role) not just his own league. It’s the only way I can get a Europe level ranking.

Step 5: I used the role logic from earlier to come up with scores for each of the 5 roles. I’ve used 13 data points for each role and weighted them on the basis of which stats are more relevant. Another caveat here is that since these are based on actual stats, they are highly dependent on what role they were deployed in and to an extent, how the team helped them perform that role as well. In a different setup, or in a different role, they could have very different stats, and, as a result, very different role rankings.

Step 6: I use percentiles once again within the role scores to rank them, and then assign each player their best role based on the final percentiles.

Let’s look at the role wise ratings. Here are the top 25 players for each specific role.

Target Man

Poacher

Deep-lying Creator

Explosive Dribbler

Defensive Forward

Those were the best players in each role based on season data.

Now, let’s take a look at some player profiles that cover their score and suitability for each role. It’s the same data, but from a single player point of view.

Firstly, Erling Haaland

Haaland is viewed as the quintessential poacher, and the data backs it up. He scored the highest in Europe for that role. His next best scores are for deep-lying creator and target man, 72 percentile on each. This means that 28% of strikers, or 62 strikers of the 220 in our dataset, are better than him for these 2 roles.

Let’s take a look at a few more examples. Kylian Mbappe.

Funnily, that looks like the eiffel tower. Jokes aside, Mbappe topped our set for explosive dribbler, which isn’t a surprise for anyone who has followed his game, but he also ranks very highly for poacher and deep-lying creator, highlighting his strengths at those roles. But that comes at the cost of his scores in the other 2 roles, which are a result of him being a poor target man and not being a great defender from the front.

Next, Thomas Muller.


Muller sneaked into the set as a ‘Support Striker’ as per Transfermarkt. His traits and play style from a deeper area are reflected in his high scores for defensive forward and deep-lying creator, given his high creativity to provide for Bayern’s front 3 and involvement in pressing and ball-winning in deeper areas.

Finally, I’m posting Ronaldo, because I’m pretty sure I’ll get a request for it. 

Ronado’s fall from grace and difficulties while playing for United last season are apparent. Even for his best role as a target man (largely due to his aerial strength, which he now relies heavily on), 27% strikers, or 60 players, performed better than him. The other roles are even worse, with his poor defending assigning him a 4 percentile as a defensive forward.


Well, and that’s a wrap. I’ll be opening a request line on our Twitter handle after releasing this article. Comment with the name of the player you want to look at and I’ll RT with the pentagon-shaped role rank style chart, like the 4 above.

If there is high interest, I might do a similar exercise for the other positions as well, but I’m not sure of the interest of 21/22 rankings, since 22/23 has already begun. 

See you on Twitter.

(Data: Statsbomb via fbref

Pentagon viz help: Ken Flerlage and Nigel Shaw)

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